Learn to love the sideways market

re: Learn to love the sideways market

Lisa Buchwalter — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:08:10 GMT

Charley, I love you, but you and Elizabeth need to take new pictures where you aren't smiling so much. Every time I click on you it bugs me right now.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

Peter — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 06:03:39 GMT

Here is an updated graph of the NAHB HMI and S&P500 data as of March 7, 2008: i26.tinypic.com/28la0t4.gif

The National Association of Home Builders publishes the Housing Market Index monthly. Several years ago David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch discovered that the HMI was a long leading indicator for the S&P500, so I did my own research and confirmed this. The relationship is understandable. Personal consumer expenditures (PCE) represents 70% of the total US economy, about $8.2 trillion of the $11.7 trillion at the moment. Since 1997 when the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 changed the homeowner capital gains treatment, and especially since the 2000-2002 bear market when real interest rates were negative, we have had a real-estate speculative bubble. Well, now the bubble has burst, and the party is over. The sub-prime mortgage punch bowl, and the home equity line of credit (HELOC) punch bowl have been taken away. We can no longer use rising home equity to finance our BMWs and take our expensive vacations. The HMI has fallen from 70 to 20 in less than three years, and I fully expect the S&P500 to follow. You can google [David Rosenberg HMI] and check this out for yourselves.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

drpeter — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 02:52:41 GMT

Which investment or market sector will replace commodities when the commodity bubble bursts? The money will have to go somewhere as it flows out of commodities.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

eric — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 00:56:49 GMT

You can wait until after the election to go anywhere near health care.

Can't wait to see how Democrats cover the cost of "Universal" health care when American citizenship is conferred automatically on any child born within the United States where the legal status of the parents is deemed irrelevant.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

Carlos — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:23:20 GMT

The 'Al Marinello' poster above should move to Cuba. He would be happy there sitting on the sidewalks and feeling protected from the evil capitalist system of America.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

ron young — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 15:32:08 GMT

I guess theres nothing to do but forget the markets and just let the dividends mount up for the next bull market. If this is about the presidential election, it is already over with, McCain is the winner. The Democrats have thrown another election away to make a stupid statement.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

wop talk — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 05:33:43 GMT

a bubble in gold and silver? not yet. we didn't see a top in the bubble in housing until after people were lined up in front of model homes attempting to out bid one another for the privledge of purchasing yet-to-be-built homes. I haven't seen any lines at my local coin shop to this date.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

JDTweddale — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 18:38:24 GMT

Im curious, whats the graph on (NABH HMI} supposed to bne the leading indicator for the SP500. I hadnt heard of this one?

Thanks and keep up the good articles

re: Learn to love the sideways market

allbull — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 03:45:01 GMT

It is the "Housing Market Index" (HMI) as gathered from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Just type in hmi nahb in your search window.

re: Learn to love the sideways market

Fred — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 01:13:39 GMT

If Ben would just keep his mouth shut, we will get through this. No matter if he has good new or bad news to report, the market dives. This guy can't win.