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• Will this be a depression?

  Posted Oct 07 2008, 08:28 AM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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  Filed under: Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, economy, Anthony Mirhaydari
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  

  Americans sure are in a gloomy mood. A recent poll finds that 60% of us believe that a full-blown depression is somewhat or very likely.

  Since a depression has no official qualities (besides being worse than recession), the pollsters cited a few economic measures from the 1930s during their survey: A 25% unemployment rate, widespread bank failures, and millions of people homeless and unable to afford basic necessities. Other measures of consumer sentiment corroborate these findings.

  Before you blow all this off as the irrational rumblings of an unhappy electorate, know that Wall Street's economists are starting to see a similarly dour picture.   Read More...

  Discuss ( 151 comments) 33,820 Views Digg this | Email this | Link to this

• Unemployment rises to 6.1% on its way to 8%

  Posted Sep 05 2008, 10:13 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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  Filed under: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve, interest rates, economy
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  The jobs data isn't getting better, and in fact its getting worse.  The Labor Department has issued unemployment as being 6.1% in August, while consensus estimates were calling for a 0.1% increase to 5.8%. This was the highest unemployment rate since 2003.  The non-Farm payrolls also came in at -84,000 rather than the -75,000 expected by economists. 

  If you want some extra salt on that wound, the prior July number was revised to -60,000 from -51,000.  It gets worse.  June's 51,000 drop was revised -100,000 jobs.  Average hourly earnings are not keeping up with inflation either.  Hourly wages rose a whole 0.4% to $18.14.

  Just yesterday we identified companies which might lay off 10,000 employees as the conditions continue to weaken. By our calculations this translates to roughly 600,000 job losses since the start of 2008.   If you take the current conditions and look at the trends going to an extreme, then all of a sudden 7% to 8% unemployment at the peak of the problems is becoming a possibility rather than just a bad dream.    Read More...

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• Surprising stocks top best of 2008 list

  Posted Jun 26 2008, 01:18 AM by Jon Markman
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  Filed under: investing, Merrill Lynch, Investment Banking, Motorola, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros, Valero, economy, Jon Markman
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  

  It’s easy to imagine that the 25 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Index this year are all oil and gas producers, and the 25 worst-performing stocks are all banks and brokers. Yet as we near the halfway mark in 2008, it turns out that there are quite a few surprises in the mix of best and worst.

  For instance, the No. 1 stock in the benchmark index this year isn’t an oil producer, but a coal miner, Massey Energy.  It’s up 155% so far, rising to $89 from $35 as coal prices have soared in the wake of booming demand in China and India. The No. 2 stock is actually a discount retailer, Big Lots. It’s up 100%, from $15 to $30, as investors speculate it will get a big share of tax-rebate money from low-income Americans.

  Most of the rest of the next best 15 gainers   Read More...

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