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• Retest of March lows seems unlikely

  Posted Oct 07 2009, 07:23 PM by Vad Yazvinski
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  Filed under: subprime, interest rates, economy, Vad Yazvinski
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect”  -- Mark Twain

  One of the main arguments "perma-bears" used in justifying why the recent stock rally is (and was) destined to fail miserably, has certainly been a widespread expectation of an upcoming collapse in the commercial real estate market.

  • See what's in Vad Yazvinski's Top Stocks portfolio

  Just yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that "banking regulators are girding for a rerun of the housing-related losses now slamming thousands of banks that failed to set aside enough capital during the boom to cushion themselves when the bubble burst. 'Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss -- just as they were in residential,' according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal".

  This is true. It has been clear for a while that hundreds of smaller banks heavily exposed to commercial real estate market are likely to fail or require more capital during the next 18 months or so. But isn't everyone expecting that at this point?   Read More...

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• Clouds on the 'bullish' horizon

  Posted Sep 28 2009, 05:43 PM by Vad Yazvinski
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  Filed under: Vad Yazvinski
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  The only real mistake is the one from which we learn nothing" -- John Powell

  This year's snap-back rally is a great lesson for the investors who pay too much attention to the media. "The sky is falling" stories combined with all the creative explanations of why this is/was just another "dead cat bounce rally," as Nouriel Roubini put it in on his Web site way back on March 14,  have once again inflicted severe damage to many individual investors and professional money managers alike.

  • Check out my Top Stocks tracking portfolio at Wall Street Survivor

  So you can call it whatever you want , a "bear market rally", "short covering rally" or whatever else. But in reality, market moves like the most recent one should instead be used as an important learning opportunity. They teach all investors who put their convictions ahead of prudent risk management a simple lesson. Concentrated bets on the binary outcome (for example, 100% bull market or bear market positioning) could sometime earn you a "genius trader of the moment" spot on CNBC. But they can also just as easily put you out of business, if you turned out to be betting on the wrong outcome. Read More...

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• A lot to like in P&C insurance sector

  Posted Jul 23 2009, 04:27 PM by Vad Yazvinski
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  Filed under: investing, Google, Apple, AIG, Vad Yazvinski
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

  “Opportunity is often difficult to recognize; we usually expect it to beckon us with beepers and billboards”   -- William Arthur Ward
  
  The violent 40%+ rally since the markets hit their lows in March has made the  job of finding the “hidden gems” quite a bit more difficult. Anyone who has followed my writing here at MSN over the last two years has by now learned that I don’t really pay much attention to “expert opinions” and pretty much choose to ignore the “household” investing names like Apple or Google.
  
  And while this might prevent me from making the CNBC headlines, it has also helped my fund to stay in the green over the last year when others faltered.
  
  Over the past several weeks, one area in particular has consumed the vast majority of my research time and efforts -- the property and casualty (“P&C”) insurance industry. And I must say, I really like what I’ve found so far.   Read More...

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• Commodity rally is at the breaking point

  Posted Jun 16 2009, 11:43 AM by Vad Yazvinski
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  Filed under: oil, credit crisis, Gold, Vad Yazvinski
  Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

   "I have seen the future and it is very much like the present - only longer"
  Kehlog Albran

  During an interview on “60 Minutes” back in March,  Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said: "And I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets, and as some confidence begins to come back, that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back."

  This “green shoots” mantra quickly became a rallying point for the entire investing community. Most economists started looking for any positive signs in the economy that could confirm that “things are getting worse more slowly.”

  Some of them have found their strongest argument in an unusual place --  the commodities market.  Oil, copper and many other natural resources have rallied more than 70% off the lows hit back in March.  

  And thus, as the “green shoots” argument goes, this sharp rebound in prices for the “base commodities” like oil and copper shows that the pace of economic decline is clearly slowing – and may be the strongest leading indicator of an upcoming rebound in the world economy.

  I think that this logic is just as flawed as the “peak oil” and “decoupling” theories were last summer. In my opinion, the speculative demand triggered by a cheaper dollar, combined with talk of theoretical hyperinflation, accounts for vast majority of the commodities’ recent advance   Read More...

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