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Posted
Sep 09 2009, 11:38 AM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
This article is written by Minyanville's Kristin Graham It’s only September, but retailers already have their eye on the upcoming holidays. With the disastrous 2008 shopping season in our rear-view mirror, many analysts are hopeful that the 2009 holidays will be a bit more joyous.
According to a survey by Information Resources Inc (IRI), roughly 77% of respondents said they're willing to splurge on a gift for the 2009 holidays even if times are tough. Based on its data, the market research firm stated that it's “conservatively optimistic” about holiday spending. For more on retailers, see "Retailers Go Back-to-School." As a retail analyst, it's become depressing to watch over the sector in the past year. I know it’s easy to wish for an industry-wide improvement. But to be frank, I just don’t foresee recovery anytime soon -- at least not before the holidays are over. And I think investors should be prepared for another gloomy shopping season. Bing: Retail Stocks
Right now, the economy is still in the beginning states of recuperating from a very traumatic recession. Consumer spending is usually one of the last pieces of the economy to recover. So consumers may respond to surveys saying the want to splurge and spend more. My question is whether that’s really feasible.
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Posted
Mar 17 2009, 08:07 AM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
While American International Group (AIG) isn’t the only company eager to send executives to swanky retreats at lavish resorts, other firms have taken note of the decidedly negative press generated by the move.
As a result, they're scaling back expenditures, canceling conferences, and generally demanding their employees adopt a lower profile in the T&E (travel and entertainment) department.
Goldman Sachs (GS) recently announced its business travelers would no longer be put up at the Ritz Carlton. BB&T (BBT), a recipient of $3.1 billion in bailout money, also shunned the Ritz, canceling a March event for top sales people.
This trend bodes ill for states like Florida, a popular vacation destination for firms looking to reward star employees. According to the Wall Street Journal, in the last quarter of 2008, Florida tourism dropped more than it has at any point since the period following September 11. Hotels are receiving cancellation requests from companies wary of showering employees with expensive trips as others lay them off in droves.
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Posted
Dec 31 2008, 06:43 AM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Goodbye, malls. Paltry sales at retailers have finally taken a toll on the buildings that house them, and many economists are predicting serious trouble ahead for mall owners.
According to an article on CNBC.com, “the dismal holiday shopping season… could take down some US malls struggling with vacancies, softening rents and their own large debt loads.”
Some mall staples, like KB Toys and Circuit City, have already filed for bankruptcy. The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates national chains closed approximately 6,100 stores in 2008, and fourth-quarter mall vacancy rates could top 7%, the highest since regional mall performance was first measured.
Moreover, anchor stores like Sears or Macy's, critical to a mall’s well-being, are suffering badly.
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Posted
Nov 14 2008, 10:34 AM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg coined the term "frugal future" to refer to the reduction of consumer debt through all necessary means. Although painful, this cathartic event would undo years of excess where savings rates collapsed to zero and people lived well beyond their means.
Well folks, the days of painfully deep spending cuts, forced garage sales, bankruptcies, and foreclosures are here.
David Leonhardt of the New York Times notes that consumer spending will likely fall $400 billion over the next year, which would represent the first cutback since 1980 and would be of a magnitude not seen since World War II. Although we've known this consumer retrenchment was inevitable, its arrival in the middle of the holiday season is particularly tragic.
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Posted
Nov 09 2008, 07:30 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Upwards of 65% of the S&P 500 companies have reported thus far and we have been continuing to see disappointment after disappointment. Profits for the entire index are estimated to be 11.7% lower than last year. Yet many companies have only started to feel the effects of the significant drop in sales which accelerated through October.
This week will probably add to concerns about the near-term outlook as we continue to accept that this will not be a V-shaped recovery. Though this is the start of a much longer slowdown, there are some opportunities to profit as stocks will bounce around, even in the ugliest of market conditions. Here are a few ideas.
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Posted
Sep 03 2008, 01:18 PM
by
Minyanville
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Many retailers -- from American Eagle to Nordstrom to Zales -- are offering up some great bargains these days, in an effort to draw strapped consumers into their stores.
Come earnings time, however, the firms may end up paying for it - literally. Discounts that drive foot traffic could have a dramatically negative impact on margins.
''Even though retailers are entering the season conservatively, they still have been too optimistic about the consumer,'' said Dan Hess, CEO and founder of Merchant Forecast. At mall-based stores -- despite inventories that have declined as much as 15% -- discounts are 10% deeper than they were a year ago.
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Posted
Mar 12 2008, 10:16 AM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Surfwear retailer Quiksilver had a big-time wipeout over the last three years after diluting its strong association with beach culture through a series of acquisitions in golf and skiing. Now that shareholders are in a bloodlust after seeing shares cut in half, the company is taking a chance on amber waves of grain.
News reports this week suggest Quiksilver, inventor of the boardshort, is planning an invasion of the American heartland. It’s looking to open a number of its beach house inspired retail outlets across the Midwest. This is totally new territory for the company, as current retail efforts are focused elsewhere. Crazy as this might seem, given that Des Moines, Iowa is about as far from the shores of Orange County as you can get, the idea could actually work.
Given the insane rise in food prices recently, the Midwest is easily outperforming the rest of the country. Farmland values increased 16% last year, while real estate plummets in traditional surf territory like California and Florida. Incomes are way up too, with the average farm household now bringing in nearly $90,000, up 6.3% from last year.
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Posted
Feb 13 2008, 02:17 PM
by
Robert Walberg
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the report of the American consumers' death has been greatly exaggerated.
As evidenced by Wednesday's retail sales report for the month of January, which showed a gain of 0.3%, we're all out there spending like usual despite the high price of gasoline, the credit crunch and the fear of recession. Given that consumer spending accounts for more than 70% of GDP growth, the data were a strong sign that maybe, just maybe, all this recession talk is much ado about nothing.
Now I don't want to put too much stock into one piece of data, especially given that the month of January now benefits from all the gift cards given at the holidays. Spending that used to be recorded in December now gets registered in January (or later when the cards are used). Nevertheless, the data seem to suggest that even under the stress of current economic conditions, consumers will fork over their money for a new shirt, a pair of pants or yet another product from Apple.
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