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Posted
Aug 19 2009, 09:35 AM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 This article was written by Minyanville's Keith Fitz-Gerald
If you’re looking for the next “Big Oil” play, bet on Beijing. As my firm has been reporting for the past several years, China has been on a global commodities shopping spree, which includes locking up every source of oil that it can. The Red Dragon has cut deals in Africa, South America, Russia, and the Middle East -- and won’t stop there. Even the mainstream news media is finally becoming aware of this crucial trend. But here’s the thing. It’s not enough just to know that this is happening. In order to profit, an investor really needs to understand why it’s happening -- and to invest accordingly. Investors who lack this insight may make the strategic misstep of betting heavily (or exclusively) on the Western heavyweights-- Exxon Mobil (XOM), BP PLC (BP) or Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -- while ignoring the oil sector’s real growth story, which is China. See, "Four Oil and Gas Stocks Powering Ahead."
Bing: More on Chinese Oil
Just this year alone:
China and Russia have signed a multi-billion-dollar, intergovernmental agreement to construct an oil line from Russia that will supply directly to China. Actually seven agreements in one, the terms depict a deal worth trillions of dollars -- including a 20-year oil contract to pump Russian oil to the Chinese market. In return, China has agreed to provide a total of $25 billion in loans to Russian oil companies Transneft and OAO Rosneft Oil Co. China even gets a cut of Rosneft’s production, as part of the deal.
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Posted
Jul 02 2009, 03:11 PM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Wall Street sure has a funny way of celebrating. We just wrapped the best quarter since 2003, had a rip-roaring start to the third quarter, and were heading into a long, sun-filled holiday weekend. In response, the S&P 500 lost 2.9% on Thursday with all the major sector groups falling more than 2%.
That's how the market gods like it: Maximum pain at the most unexpected time.
Over the past few weeks I've been waiting for a selloff based on depressed volatility measures and weak supply/demand fundamentals. Today, I had focused short positions among energy and industrial stocks. My portfolio is up 2% over the last two days versus a 1.7% drop in the S&P 500.
Now, let's talk about what happened and what's ahead.
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Posted
Jul 01 2009, 03:29 PM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Over the last few months almost every asset class rose at an incredible pace as it looked as though the economy was beginning to stabilize.
Stocks are up 38% as consumer confidence swelled and earnings stabilized. Metals and other basic materials jumped on stockpiling in China and signs the world's factory were about to restart. And of course, oil prices have nearly doubled.
In their excitement, traders forgot all about the impact high energy prices would have on vulnerable and shell-shocked American shoppers. With easy money courtesy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, the momentum trade was on. No time to think about basic economic relationships. But this is changing now. And as it does, crude oil will suffer. Here's why
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Posted
Jun 15 2009, 04:57 PM
by
Kelley Wright
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Investor sentiment can be visualized as an emotional roller coaster with highs and lows that gives new meaning to the term bi-polar. At the March lows sentiment was black bearish; all news was bad news. Almost on cue, the market reversed and began the first meaningful retracement of the declines from the October, 2007 highs, with green shoots and other assorted flora and fauna nonetheless! Hallelujah, happy days are here again!
As few current market participants were around for the last real bear market from 1966 through 1974, they can be forgiven for not knowing that all trends, be they bull or bear, move in waves. No market trend goes straight up or straight down from beginning to its ultimate conclusion. Both markets and participants need a time of pause to collect their breath, digest the preceding action and gather energy for the next phase of the primary trend.
The typical pattern in a bear market is three down legs interspersed with two very profitable retracements. In the case of this bear market the logical places for a retracement were sliced through like a hot knife through butter, in effect completing two down legs in one fell swoop (if 18 months of declines can be characterized as such).
With so much damage done to the market averages and investors psyches, it’s understandable that investors are hesitant to take long-term positions when quick profits have been readily available. While this approach works well in a bear market rally, it isn’t a long-term strategy with legs.
Shelby Davis (the founder of the Davis family of funds) has been credited with saying that “most of the big money is made by buying in a bear market; you just don’t realize it at the time.” That makes a lot of sense to us, which is why we put together a list of ten stocks we feel will outperform the market over the next five years in each issue of Investment Quality Trends.
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Posted
Apr 08 2009, 03:07 AM
by
Bernhard Warner and Matthew Yeomans
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
This post comes from partner site The Big Money.
The Treasury Department will open up its checkbook for another teetering segment of the financial-services sector, the insurance industry, The Wall Street Journal reports. The announcement to provide bailout funds for insurers under the TARP program could come any day now, a bit of welcome relief for the battered sector.
Just how bad have things been for insurers? Shares are down 40% this year, and their troubles "led to a string of rating-agency downgrades that, in a vicious cycle, made it more difficult for some insurers to raise funds," the newspaper writes.
Bloomberg reports there's already a queue of hobbled insurers for the $700 billion federal program, and some had filed applications as early as November. Life insurers, including Prudential Financial and Principal Financial Group, want federal aid "after the swoon in financial markets squeezed profit and sliced the value of their holdings that back policies," Bloomberg writes.
For those keeping score, insurers would be the third industry to be added to the TARP plan after banks and automakers.
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Posted
Nov 26 2008, 06:52 AM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Paired trades always seem a bit too exotic to me - they're just not my style. However, a pair trade sometimes calls out to me too clearly to be ignored, and I play it accordingly. At times, these trades deal with fundamentals (like my Patriot Trade earlier this year); other times, like today. they concern technicals.
Unless you've been living under a rock, you're well aware of the massive decline we've seen in the commodity world. This has been due in part to a global slowdown; however, much of this decline may be due to the massive liquidation and forced selling that occurred when hedge funds bid the market adieu, and money fled to safer havens. Regardless, commodity-related stocks have fallen, and fallen hard. No commodity class is immune.
To play the decline, equity traders have recently focused on new ETF favorites such as the Proshares Ultrashort Basic Material ETF, or the Ultrashort Oil and Gas ETF. These plays have provided excellent trading opportunities; however, it's now purely
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Posted
Oct 22 2008, 01:51 PM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Joe Six-Pack, the presidential campaign’s prototypically average American -- the one that Sarah Palin so desperately wants to affiliate with -- isn’t doing so well. His income can’t keep up with the cost of gas, food and health care. His retirement account has tanked in the stock market crashes. His wallet is shrinking, and as a result, one of his favorite sports -- NASCAR -- is feeling the pinch.
NASCAR’s television ratings in the US are second only to those of professional football. Its fans -- who might be the most loyal of any sport, with the possible exception of European soccer -- spend more than $3 billion on official products annually. But a mountain of financial problems has kept fans away this year. Even loyalty has a price.
Still more troubling is that the sport’s sponsors include a number of the financial, automotive, and consumer goods companies hardest-hit by the economic downturn. General Motors, Chrysler, Sears and Chevron will cut or drop sponsorships next season. Dario Franchitti, the 2007 Indianapolis 500 winner, switched to NASCAR this year - but was forced out of the series because of a lack of sponsors.
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Posted
Aug 20 2008, 09:57 AM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
The Dividends4Life blog, which tries to find good dividend investments, crunches the numbers on Chevron and comes away less than impressed. Chevron shares are up less than 1% today and trading at $85.46.
If Chevron grows its dividend at 7.5% annually, it will take 11 years to equal the cumulative earnings from a money market account with a 20-year average rate of 4.61%, according to the blog. That's too long.
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Posted
Jul 15 2008, 12:21 PM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Coming soon to the airline boarding pass clutched in your hot little hand: advertisements.
Printing advertisements on the boarding pass is part of airlines’ continuing frantic search for new sources of revenue to offset higher fuel prices. Here’s betting it will be less painful than getting dinged $15 to check a second suitcase.
The effort, initially adopted by Delta Air Lines, is scheduled to begin Tuesday on flights to Las Vegas. However, ads will soon appear on the airline’s boarding passes to all domestic destinations.
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Posted
May 27 2008, 12:24 PM
by
Douglas McIntyre
Rating:
Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
Solar energy may be the wave of energy's future, but companies like Google and Chevron may best start-ups in getting to the benefits. A number of large American companies with tremendous balance sheets are pouring money into solar energy based on the fact that it is becoming more competitive with oil.
According to Bloomberg, "Costs for the technology will fall below coal as soon as 2020, the U.S. government estimates. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo invested last year in the biggest solar plant built in a generation; Chevron and Google are funding research; and Goldman Sachs is seeking land to lease as demand out-paces wind turbines and geothermal."
Given the potential size of the bonanza, the investments should not be surprising, but they could squeeze smaller solar energy companies out of the market. Firms like JA Solar and SunTech bet their entire futures
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