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  • Is the Countrywide buyout a BofA blunder?

    Posted May 06 2008, 01:06 PM by Matt Koppenheffer Rating:

    After Countrywide's ugly $890 million first quarter loss, speculation has been rampant that Bank of America will try to pull a Houdini and wiggle out of its agreement to buy the mortgage lender. Speculation took to new heights this week when Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Paul Miller strongly cautioned BofA against the deal, and suggested that the bank may try to renegotiate the price down to the $0 to $2 per share level.

    The question at hand here really isn't whether Countrywide is going to suck for the foreseeable future -- despite what CEO Angelo Mozilo said late last year, that's pretty much a given. The issue is whether Countrywide will suck more than BofA's proposed buyout price suggests. Since BofA's original buyout offer was at about $4 billion, it's possible that it's already expecting at least another $9 billion hit to Countrywide's book value. That would assume a buyout at one time projected book value, which would be relatively cheap given Countrywide's trading history.   Read More...

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  • Deciphering the reaction to Bank of America

    Posted Apr 21 2008, 01:01 PM by Matt Koppenheffer Rating:

    After watching relatively positive reactions to horrible earnings reports from the likes of Citigroup and Merrill Lynch last week, investors are far less chipper about the news out of Bank of America today. So it wouldn't be surprising if investors watching the financial sector are wondering when bad is good and when bad is just... well, bad.

    The beginning and end of that story is expectations. Think about it this way: say you are expecting a meteor to crash into earth and create an ice age that will end life as we know it. The following week you wake up to hear that the meteor will end up missing earth, but you find that somebody has stolen your car. On balance you're still probably pretty psyched about the situation.

    In that same way, Citigroup and Merrill have had some very pessimistic expectations thrust on them. In fact, it's been so bad for Citi that, as Charley Blaine pointed out last week, Apple is now worth more as a company than Citi. In a situation like that, investors are really pretty impressed with anything north of abject failure.   Read More...

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  • Why buy Countrywide?

    Posted Jan 11 2008, 01:58 PM by Matt Koppenheffer Rating:

    The best person to ask would be Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, since B of A went ahead and announced an agreement to buy Countrywide for roughly $4 billion, or $7 per share.

    Ken is a bit busy, though so I'll go ahead and tackle it. Here are three scenarios from most to least optimistic:

    1. Countrywide's stock has been beaten down so far that Bank of America could no longer resist buying a valuable asset at a price well under its true value. Plus, B of A sees the opportunity to build its mortgage lending arm and lower borrowing costs for Countrywide.
    2. Having already sunk $2 billion into Countrywide, B of A decided that it'd rather take matters into its own hands than continue to watch the value of its investment sink.
    3. And finally (tip of the hat to Herb Greenberg on this one), Countrywide was really on the edge of bankruptcy and the Federal Reserve got into the mix by pushing for the deal and offering government backing for any losses from Countrywide.   Read More...
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