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Posted
Jun 17 2008, 12:18 PM
by
Robert Walberg
Rating:
While I still believe the electoral math favors Sen. Barack Obama in the upcoming presidential election, many of you responded to my last blog by asking how I might construct a portfolio based on the assumption that Sen. John McCain prevails in November. Perhaps you were unimpressed with my Obama report, or you're a staunch Republican, or you simply want to see balanced analysis. Whatever the case, a plausible argument can be made for McCain becoming our next president, so let's see how that would play out and identify what sectors/stocks might make good investments.
First, it's important to identify McCain's obvious hurdles -- age, less money and the Bush factor (the president's low popularity likely to weigh on McCain, as Clinton's did on Gore in 2000). Despite these issues, McCain can pull off a win by merely doing what Republicans have been doing for the last three decades -- winning the south and most of the west. Unless the African-American and/or youth turnout jumps by more than 30% from the 2004 vote totals, McCain should win every state in the south, including Florida. A clean sweep of the southern states would give McCain 132 electoral votes. Toss in Texas and he's at 166.
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Posted
Feb 13 2008, 12:54 PM
by
Kim Peterson
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Blue Nile shares are down 17% today to $44.67 after the online jeweler gave a first-quarter forecast Tuesday that was waaay below what the Street wanted. Blue Nile said it expected Q1 earnings of 11 cents a share on sales of $67.9 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 23 cents a share on sales of $82.3 million. That's quite a disparity. "We did not believe the jewelry market would weaken so dramatically and
we did not believe Nile would be this cyclical," said Citi analyst Mark Mahaney.
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Posted
Dec 20 2007, 04:04 AM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:
 Blue Nile's three-month chart isn't pretty. And its hard to fathom why shares have dropped 27% during that time. The online jeweler had a fantastic third quarter, handily beating analyst expectations and raising its full-year guidance.
This should be the quarter that the company starts firing on all cylinders. But the stock freefall shows that investors have lost faith in Blue Nile's ability to deliver. Analysts seem divided on the company's prospects. Mark Mahaney of Citi Investment Research boosted shares yesterday when he said Blue Nile will again beat expectations for Q4. His price target is $88 per share.
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Posted
Nov 28 2007, 11:40 AM
by
Robert Walberg
Rating:
Now that the dust has settled back on our keyboards, which company was the big winner of Cyber Monday? Was it a) Amazon with its new Kindle, b) Wal-Mart with its cheap big-screen TVs, c) Blue Nile with its sparkling diamonds, or d) none of the above?
If you guessed "d" then you are today's winner. While anecdotal evidence suggests that each of the highlighted retailers fared reasonably well on Monday, the real winner of Cyber Monday was FedEx.
Internet sales totalled a whopping $733 million Monday, an impressive 21% jump over the year-ago total. But to jack up sales so significantly at a time when consumer confidence is in the toilet required some serious effort -- and by effort I mean discounting prices. Sales were everywhere online Monday, and that's why I'm not as excited by the retailers as I am by FedEx. You see slashing prices might jumpstart sales, but it does so at the cost of lowering margins. Lower margins mean slow to no profit growth, and it's earnings growth that ultimately drives stock prices.
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Posted
Nov 26 2007, 07:08 AM
by
Kim Peterson
Is any work getting done today? It's Cyber Monday, a marketing gimmick that turned into a real trend. Retailers predict that 72 million people will shop online today, up from 61 million last year.
GPS systems are going to be a hot gift, and Garmin is seeing the investor love today. It's shares are up 8.5% to $99.63
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Posted
Oct 29 2007, 09:45 PM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:
Blue Nile's stock should be on a roll, heading into the holidays with lots of momentum. Instead, the shine is gone. Still, the online jeweler got a nice smooch from Forbes last week. According to the magazine, Blue Nile is selling more engagement rings and wedding bands than Tiffany & Co. -- $197 million in bling last year compared with Tiffany's $186 million. Says Forbes:
"The retail experience just serves to sucker and intimidate the customer, especially men who often feel as out of their depth in a jewelry store as they do inside Victoria's Secret--no wonder three quarters of Blue Nile's Internet ice-buyers are guys."
Oh come on, do men really feel that awkward in a jewelry store? Anyway, that's beside the point. I want to know what's going on with this company's stock. After crossing the $100 mark three weeks ago, the share price has dropped 20% to $80. Are investors feeling jittery before Blue Nile's Nov. 6 earnings release?
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