While I still believe the electoral math favors Sen. Barack Obama in the upcoming presidential election, many of you responded to my last blog by asking how I might construct a portfolio based on the assumption that Sen. John McCain prevails in November. Perhaps you were unimpressed with my Obama report, or you're a staunch Republican, or you simply want to see balanced analysis. Whatever the case, a plausible argument can be made for McCain becoming our next president, so let's see how that would play out and identify what sectors/stocks might make good investments.
First, it's important to identify McCain's obvious hurdles -- age, less money and the Bush factor (the president's low popularity likely to weigh on McCain, as Clinton's did on Gore in 2000). Despite these issues, McCain can pull off a win by merely doing what Republicans have been doing for the last three decades -- winning the south and most of the west. Unless the African-American and/or youth turnout jumps by more than 30% from the 2004 vote totals, McCain should win every state in the south, including Florida. A clean sweep of the southern states would give McCain 132 electoral votes. Toss in Texas and he's at 166.
Read More...
