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  • If Sirius has to be sold, who will buy?

    Posted Apr 03 2008, 11:45 AM by Douglas McIntyre Rating:

    When the Justice Department cleared the merger of Sirius with XM Satellite there was anticipation that once the deal got done the shares of both companies would go up. A year ago, the combination was viewed as a dream deal.

    If anything, the shares have dropped. Sirius is below $3 and XM is below $13. The market began to realize that the year wasted on getting government approval was a year the companies need to stay competitive. XM has over $1 billion in debt. Refinancing it in the current market would be nearly impossible. Selling shares would lead to extremely large dilution.  As we recently noted, Goldman Sachs even put Sirius on its "Conviction Sell List" with a price target of $2.25.

    Growth at Sirius has slowed considerably. In the fourth quarter revenue rose only 29% to $250 million. But, for the full year, revenue was up 45%. Subscriber deactivations in the fourth quarter were almost 540,000 compared to 330,000 in the same quarter of 2006. The firm's net loss was $166 million. Long-term debt was almost $1.3 billion.   Read More...

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  • Dell disappoints again

    Posted Feb 28 2008, 04:09 AM by Robert Walberg
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    Like the former high-school baseball star in the Springsteen song, Michael Dell knows how glory days can pass you by in the wink of a young girl's eye. His company, Dell, delivered yet another earnings disappointment last night.  The former king of the PC industry cited higher-than-expected costs for the earnings shortfall.  The excuse may be new but falling short of estimates has become old hat to Dell.

    Not that long ago, Dell rode its cheap cost structure, build-to-order model and aggressive market campaign to the top of theh PC world. But after years of management missteps, the company finds itself looking up at Hewlett-Packard much the way General Motors finds itself trailing Toyota.  About the only category in which Dell surpasses HP these days is in restructuring announcements.  According to Mr. Dell, the current plan, which calls for more staff reductions and improved operating efficiencies, is apt to adversely impact near-term earnings growth. No kidding.  

    But I'll tell you what the restructuring plan isn't going to do -- it's not going to resolve the company's long-term problem any more than the dozen or so turnaround efforts have resurrected GM.  And the reasons are much the same -- both management teams are too focused on the bottom-line and not focused enough on the big picture.  Dell's problem isn't that the call center in Canada is overstaffed, it's that the company no longer possesses a significant cost advantage over the competition.  Dell was never a very innovative company -- its strength was in the cost savings produced by the model.  That cost benefit doesn't exist any more and simply adding new channels to sell product that's priced about the same as Toshiba, Acer and HP just isn't going to get it done.   Read More...

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