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Posted
Jul 18 2008, 08:00 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
We are the heart of earnings season and this week's lineup is massive. As I write this, I'm looking at over 25 pages of earnings estimates on hundreds of companies presenting results in one of the toughest quarters we've seen in decades. It appears that many of the companies that have already reported have been doing a fine job of beating lowered expectations and providing a nice balance to a market that has been under siege.
This week will be no different in terms of volatility. But those companies which have been savvy enough to project estimates that they figure they can beat will have an easy time pleasing investors. Those that don't will pay a heavy price into the next cycle. Let's face it, it's a game. If played well it can provide wondrous rewards.
Here are a few companies that you may want to pay attention to.
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Posted
Jul 11 2008, 08:59 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
This week will be full of exciting earnings announcements that may actually show some promise. As investor anxiety grows, sometimes a stock will mistakenly get caught up in the hysteria/euphoria and shares will behave erratically. In these conditions, if a company can prove that it isn't in imminent danger by showing a string of solid earnings in the face of financial adversity, investors will bid shares up with a vengeance.
There may actually be a few nuggets that will show up this week. Yes, even in a market that seems to whipsaw investors around daily, there may be a few good stocks out there. Even in the worst forest fire there is usually some form of life left that will help to bring life out of the ashes. With that in mind, here are few ideas to ponder:
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Posted
Jul 04 2008, 05:00 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
This week begins the unofficial start of earnings season and it is sure to be a busy one. Alcoa's quarterly report unofficially signals the beginning of the onslaught of news related to earnings for publicly traded companies within the U.S. markets.
So far this year, companies have adjusted their earnings significantly lower and analyst estimates have followed along like penguins. Depending on how you look at it, the S&P 500 could still be overvalued. Even with a precipitous drop we’ve recently seen, the 12-month trailing P/E ratio is now close to 22.50. Look how it compares with recent years:
2004 – 20.70 2005 – 17.85 2006 – 17.40 2007 – 22.19
What may move the markets this week
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Posted
Jun 27 2008, 04:59 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
It’s a whole new ball game. With the dollar’s historic lows and oil breaking about $140 per barrel, it seems obvious that as investors, we need to revisit the basic rules when it comes to risk protection and price targets. As we saw with last week’s romp on the market, the broad-based sell off was a signal that we may have finally approached the proverbial straw that broke the market's back. What is next and will oil finally come down from the stratosphere? (see Oil index set to fall?)
Whether it’s transportation costs or materials that make up the basis of the manufacturing process, companies are going to need to be looking for cost-cutting strategies in order to maintain profitability.
Unless you have a portfolio chock full of short positions and maybe a smattering of energy-related stocks, you have had a lot to be worried about. The most troubling part of this earnings season is that we have not seen a more publicized account showing that companies are having a difficult time reaching lowered estimates. Perhaps it is time to reflect on goals and pay attention to downside risk in an environment that is showing a much greater potential for breakdown that a breakout.
Next week should be interesting as we see the earnings releases from these select companies.
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Posted
Jun 20 2008, 08:59 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
In Acapulco there is an exciting activity that is considered a must see. It is known as cliff diving -- where a young man throws himself off from heights of over 135 feet and plunges into a 10-foot-deep inlet. In the United States, we have a similar activity, which is now called "buy-and-hold."
All kidding aside, the market action the last few weeks has been a poignant reminder of the perils inherent with any market that relies on confidence as the core of its stability. Specifically, the financials have been hurt not only by their reckless behavior but also by their blatant disregard for truth and transparency. Fortunately, this writing is more off a look ahead rather than a review. So, let’s get to it
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Posted
Jun 16 2008, 07:05 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
On a recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast, which I host, we had a terrific and lively panel discussion with the current participants of the MSN Money Strategy Lab. The discussion included participants Robert Walberg, Kelly Wright, Vad Yazvinski, Ken Kam, John Resse and MSN Money Investing Editor Ron Prichard.
We reviewed each of their investment strategies and the specific ways in which the strategies work. There was also plenty of time for a few stock picks and pans as well. From screening with a quantitative strategy to contrarian investing style and back, this episode has a great deal of profitable ideas.
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Posted
Jun 16 2008, 03:05 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
 I have been helping out as the guest host of the Money Girl Podcast until the regular host takes the microphone back (no gender jokes!). I am told she is scheduled for August 1. Until then, I will be filling some very big high-heels and providing some money tips to the listeners of this wonderful educational series. I encourage you to check it out.
This week, I took the opportunity to provide some tips on the MSN Screener tool. It happens to be one of my favorite starting points when searching for stocks to include in portfolios. If you've ever wanted to learn more about the screening process and investing with quantitative strategies, this is worth the listen.
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Posted
Jun 13 2008, 03:29 PM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
There are only a few sectors that may be considered healthy in an otherwise sickly market these days. Energy is one sector that has investors smiling. While there is still a great deal of ongoing investigation being done into the potential manipulation of energy prices by speculators, shares of most companies within the oil sector have been continuing to climb as the higher level of oil prices will ultimately help their profits. Surely there will come a time when prices are high enough to push corrective legislation along with a hope for a fundamental change in America’s ideals concerning oil consumption.
Technology has also been somewhat immune from much of the horror that we have seen in many of the market sectors and this week ‘s earnings starts with a longtime industry leader, Adobe. (Listen to The Disciplined Investor Podcast #61 as we will be discussing technology with guests John C. Dvorak and Leo Laporte) Here's a look at upcoming earnings and economic factors that could drive the markets next week
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Posted
Jun 13 2008, 07:46 AM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
Lehman Brothers sent another "feel-good" letter to their clients that hold positions in Lehman sponsored partnerships. This isn't the first of these smokescreens that Lehman published in an attempt to take our eyes off of the real problems. Is it me or is it terribly concerning how gullible many of these companies believe that we are? I still have not hear an apology for the blatant and disrespectful lies misinformation that was promoted by the overzealous PR team over at Lehman HQ.
Below is the June 11 letter and my comments....
LEHMAN BROTHERS
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 TELEPHONE (212) 526-0977 FACSIMILE (646) 758-4269
MICHAEL J. ODRICH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, HEAD OF PRIVATE EQUITY
Dear Partner:
As the second quarter comes to a close, financial markets remain under stress. Actions taken by the Federal Reserve have provided additional stability for capital markets, although the operatin
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Posted
Jun 09 2008, 10:00 AM
by
Andrew Horowitz
Rating:
Most remember the frenzied race between Advanced Micro Devices and Intel to bring the first dual-core processor to market. Yet a lesser know fact is the IBM was actually the first to offer it way back in 2001. It took another four years until Intel and AMD were ready to ship a dual-core that was commercially viable for PCs. Quickly the dual-duel heated up and now it looks like AMD is looking to get even for Intel stealing their dual-core thunder. If you recall, back in 2005, AMD and Intel were just weeks apart with each of their initial releases of the dual-core technology. While Intel was actually first with the blazing technology, the king-of-the-hill status was short lived. AMD came out with a faster and cheaper version within a few weeks.
But, not to be outdone, Intel rebounded with the a line of dual-core processors in 2006 that smoked the AMD offerings. Since then, AMD had been floundering as they have been unable to innovate and provide a compelling/competitive reason for anyone to choose their processors over Intel's.
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