Mr. T Gold indicator pities the bullion
Posted
Oct 07 2009, 12:41 PM
by
Minyanville
Rating:
This article is written by Minyanville's Kevin Depew
When Sony Pictures Animation announced it was producing an animated film version of the entertainingly bizarre 1978 children's book "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" featuring Mr. T as a voice for one of the main characters, the most striking thing about it was the $100 million budget. Seemed like a lot for an animated film, even for Sony.
The obvious question was this: How will this affect the Mr. T Gold Indicator? "Houston, do we have a flop?" Not so fast.
See also, Why Gold Keeps Climbing, and Why it Could Stop
Here we are, barely into the fourth weekend of release, and the film's domestic gross has already passed the $80 million mark.
"Bullion, we have a problem."
What those box office figures mean is that this film will easily surpass the total box office gross for Mr. T's last big hit, "Rocky III," which pulled in $125 million domestically over its run. And it will probably even surpass it this weekend.
Sorry about that, gold bugs. I was holding out hope for you, I really was. But this gerenates a definitive sell signal on Minyanville's Mr. T Gold Indicator. After all, the last time Mr. T appeared in a widely released animated production was the 1999 television series "Sabrina: The Animated Series." Ever heard of it? Then the Mr. T Gold Indicator rests its case; 1999 was a bitter low point for gold.
Is there no hope? Are gold investors now doomed in the same way they were in 1982, at gold's last major peak? Well, fear not inflation hawks, after all we are comparing apples from 1982, the year Rocky III was released, to 2009's fruit. Perhaps in this case inflation is our friend?
Adjusted for inflation, "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" will need to rake in almost $300 million to beat to the lifetime domestic gross for "Rocky III." Yeah, hmm, we're almost a third of the way there in just the fourth week, and after factoring in foreign release, DVD sales, video games and licensing, domestic gross aside, this thing looks like a hit... and the one feeling the full brunt of the blow is probably going to be gold.
For those not familiar with the astonishingly accurate Mr. T Gold Indicator, let's review.
What is the Mr. T Gold Indicator? Click here to see my previous Mr. T Gold Indicator Alert.
The Mr. T Gold Indicator is a proprietary technical indicator created by Minyanville to identify and anticipate prospective exhaustion points in the price data for gold. Some technical indicators rely on formulas applied to the price data of a security, but these types of indicators can be very subjective, requiring an analyst to view the signals that are generated within the context of still more indicators!
The Mr. T Gold indicator, on the other hand, is completely objective and easy to use. All you have to do is look at Mr. T. What could be easier than that?
Minyanville's Mr. T Gold Indicator FAQ's
How Does the Mr. T Gold Indicator Work?
Good question. The Mr. T Gold Indicator is based on the five-square series of price points using 0.9444 for downside trend factors and 0.5556 for upside trend factors, multiplying either 0.9444 or 0.5556 by the close of the high (or low) that's referenced by the first series of price objective within the oscillating trend channels.
Hahaha! Just kidding (although it would be cool if that really was the Mr. T Gold Indicator formula).
The truth, however, is the Mr. T Gold Indicator is simply based on the appearance and popularity of Mr. T. Minyanville has discovered that over the years Mr. T's appearance and popularity is simply a subconscious reminder telling us when the yellow metal has reached an important price peak.
Surely, you cannot be serious. Do you think I am a fool?
Shut up, fool! Look, this morning we awoke pitying the fool; not a specific fool, mind you, but just pitying the fool in general; the very idea of foolishness. You know that thing which makes one a fool? We pity it. Whatever it is. And we're not alone. Someone else pities the fool. Do you know who? That's right. Mr. T pities the fool.
The reason Mr. T pities the fool is because Mr. T knows his gold. In fact, Mr. T developed his gold-wearing ability during his days as a bouncer, confiscating the gold jewelry of those he kicked out of nightclubs as a symbol of his toughness and virility.
Mr. T knows human behavior, and he knows gold. So who are you going to believe? Some pinhead precious metals analyst at Bigwig, Doofus, and Booyah Securities? Or Mr. T? Shut up, fool! You're going to believe a guy whose first name is "Mister", middle name is "period", and whose last name is "T"!
Now, at this point there will be some doubters. We understand that. So below, we take a look at the Mr. T Gold Indicator in action from 1982 to present.
Mr. T Gold Indicator in Action (1982 - 1994)
At this point you're probably thinking, "Quit your jibba jabba." Does the Mr. T Gold Indicator work? How good is the Mr. T Gold Indicator?
Rest assured, the Mr. T Gold Indicator has been weighted, smoothed, eyeballed, and thoroughly back-tested for generalish accuracy using both the Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Wikipedia (the free, somewhat accurate encyclopedia that anyone can edit, even that guy who works in your building with the weird comb-over and Charlie's Angels lunch box... and the more we think about it, probably especially him!). Let's take a look at the historical accuracy of the Mr. T Gold Indicator. Click the chart below to enlarge and see a description of each turning point in gold based on the Mr. T Gold Indicator.
Gold 1981 -1994
Mr. T Gold Indicator in Action (1995 - 2005)
Click chart here to enlarge and see description of each turning point in gold based on the Mr. T Gold Indicator.
Gold 1995 - 2006
Click chart here.
Mr. T Gold Indicator in Action (2007 - Present)
Click chart here to enlarge and see description of each turning point in gold based on the Mr. T Gold Indicator.
Appendix
A Fractal-Based Look at the Mr. T Gold Indicator
As you can see, the Mr. T Gold Indicator is a robust tool for identifying high-probability price exhaustion points in gold, both on the upside and the downside. In the main article we took a long-term view of gold using the Mr. T Gold Indicator to identify price exhaustion points on monthly charts. In addition to the yellow metal, the indicator is also useful in identifying similar exhaustion points in the metals stocks themselves, such as Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), and Gold Fields (GFI).
But what about weekly, daily, even hourly and minute-by-minute charts? Don't give me no back talk, sucka! Naturally it stands to reason that if the Mr. T Gold Indicator is indeed a robust price exhaustion tool then it should apply to smaller time frames of gold price data.
That is, because the gold market is a self-organizing complex system with self-similarity on different time scales, the Mr. T Gold Indicator should be just as useful in these self-similar and subdivided minute time frames as it is on a larger scale. But this must be tested!
As you can see from the chart below, on February 22, 1983, gold opened very strong as the opening title sequence to the A-Team television show rolled. However, in this episode, "Bad Day at Black Rock" (see A on the chart below), Mr. T's character, Sgt. Bosco "B.A." Baracus, was seriously wounded by gunfire.
About 15 minutes after the first commercial break (see B on the chart below) gold began a brief rebound as The A-Team found medical attention for B.A. from a small-town doctor. In the next few minutes, it became clear the small-town doctor suspected that B.A. may be part of a biker gang returning to rescue their jailed leader. Gold collapsed intra-day (see C on the chart below) as the doctor warned the local sheriff of his suspicions. At this point it appeared B.A. was done for.
Not so fast! About 22 minutes later (See D on the chart below), Hannibal was able to convince the sheriff that B.A. was one of the good guys. Gold rebounded by the end of the episode as B.A. recovered and the A-Team helped the sheriff protect the town.
Thus, the Mr. T Gold Indicator works even on minute, intra-day time frames. We rest our case.
Before you go, recount the time Mr. T crashed Hoofy & Boo's set and confronted them about the indicator.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Related Articles
Gold's manipulation in 1975 isn't a smoking gun
Precious metals: quick consolidation or serious breakdown?
Why precious metals reach new highs?
