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A 'clunkers' sales flurry

Posted Sep 01 2009, 11:49 AM by Kim Peterson
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Public domain releaseDon't be fooled by the headlines. Yes, the cash-for-clunkers program helped Ford (F) boost sales a remarkable 17% in August from a year ago. It was the first time since 2006 that sales went up for two months straight, The New York Times reports.

For a brief few weeks, the auto industry sprang back to life. People flooded into dealerships, buying cars into the wee hours of the morning and taking advantage of rebates of as much as $4,500.

Bing: More on cash-for-clunkers

But as soon as cash-for-clunkers ended, dealerships turned back into ghost towns. “Dealers are saying as soon as the program ended everything stopped dead,” industry consultant John Casesa told Bloomberg.

Don't expect next month's sales to be as cheery. And in fact, analysts were somewhat disappointed by Ford's August total. They had expected sales to be higher, somewhere in the range of a 33% to 39% increase.

So either the analysts were too optimistic, or cash-for-clunkers wasn't as successful at boosting sales as some had thought. Nearly 700,000 buyers took about $2.88 billion in rebates, MarketWatch reported.

The biggest sellers in the program were foreign cars: the Toyota Corolla and the Honda Civic. American cars were at the top of the trade-in list, and included the Ford Explorer SUV and the F150 pickup (pictured).

Ford was the first of the Big Three to report August sales. Chrysler is expected to disclose a 15% drop in sales in August, the Associated Press reports. Analysts expect that General Motors' (MTLQQ) sales fell 16%. 

Toyota and Honda were expected to see the first sales increases this year, with sales up an estimated 8.9% and 3.2%, respectively.

At the time of this writing, Kim Peterson did not own shares of any companies mentioned.

Related reading:

A 'cash for clunkers' frenzy

'Cash for clunkers' off to a hot start

Could your clunker bring you $4,500?

Cash in on the ‘clunker' bill

Keep your old clunker or buy a new car?

 

Comments

 

Wouldn't the fact that they went through the first $1 billion set aside for it and almost went through $3 billion show that cash for clunkers was in fact a success?  Why would this program make ppl go out and buy a car if they weren't using the credit?

WHy did we bailout GM.  We should have used that money and given it to the people for htem to decide which company stay's in business and which one doesn't because it is our money after al.l

The reports I have seen on the financial news concerning the "cash for clunkers" was primarily buyers with better than average FICO scores. They were primarily buyers who have little to no debt and only purchased because of the rebate.  Was it a success, only time will tell as far as tracking what the repossession rate is on these autos.  The biggest deterent to profitability in auto sales is too many manufacturers, too many models and too many dealers selling multiple products. In days gone by, a manufacturer had one or two models built as a custom, deluxe and super deluxe.  When manufacturers decided to build a ton of different models to suit all buyers, that was the beginning of the end. Remember when your first car was a chevy then a pontiac then a buick then an olds and oh my oh my then maybe a cadillac. Ford, Mercury and Lincoln. What makes a company stay on top is good management and innovation not me too.  

I feel that this cash for clunkers should have only helped out automakers that have at least 80% of there cars made in the USA. Why would we want to give money again to other countries... This is why we are having so many problems... The government did not think this one out to carefully did it......

I will agree that manufacturers started building too many cars and maybe a few too many models-but all of the foreign makes coming in did not help either.  Way too many choices for the buyer.   One of the biggest problems was and continues to be the rebates-once they started, they could not get out of it.  Reducing the number of vehicles available probably would have started to correct this.   Rebates brought the buying cycle forward several years and eventually the number of buyers dried up.   Cash for Clunkers just started this all over again-it is not going to change the bottom line at the end of the year.  Now we have created a new problem-customers are going to sit and wait for the next program just like they waited for the next rebate.  

It shouldn't have taken much of an economic genius to see the flaws in the "cash for clunkers" program.

A simple analysis of the factors that have prevented people from buying cars in anywhere near the numbers they did just two years ago are:

1)  Job worries - 14 million people are laid off, have had their hours cut, or are in fear of facing layoff's in the not too distant future.  Cash for Clunkers - did nothing to mitigate this issue.

2)  Debt levels way higher than people could afford, and with the drop in incomes, the rise in gasoline and food prices, and the loss of equity and other asset based value, people can't make the payments they have, much less step up to another $300-$500 per month for a new vehicle, regardless of the rebate they received.

3)  A return to more prudent credit availability.  People have enjoyed almost foolish availability of credit the past 10 years, and now the banks, credit unions and other lending institutions are restricting credit to those who have the highest likelihood of being able to pay back the loan - something they should have been doing for years instead of the reckless credit grants.

Since the Cash for Clunkers program did nothing to address any of these major issues, the issues that have kept people out of the dealerships, why would anyone think this program could be sustainabily sucessful?  Sure, so long as the "free" money was available, people were anxious to get their piece of it.  But for the millions of other people, who didn't quality, they are still facing the issues that prevented them from buying the past 12 months.  And frankly, that trend is only going to continue.

Another government program that was too optimistic, benefited a small number of people, was unsustainable, and didn't really change anything fundamental.

Good going Congress!

Any car dealer will tell you that this business is feast or famine, cash for Clunkers was a feast event..... Something else will come along to get people into showrooms... and then there will be a time when noboby wants to buy a car.... It is the nature of the business.. It's been that way since the model T and will always be that way.... A salesman once said to me there is a seat for every A$$ and an A$$ for every seat.... Relax.

cash for clunkers worked. who cares if people with money or people who know not to look a gift horse in the mouth,if they want to give me $4500 for my junk i will take it, dont forget people with money pay taxes too and pay there bills. alot of talk about the poor not being able to buy cars because of credit. Somewhere along the line they were given a chance and didn't pay there bills or just wrote them off and thatsanother reason why banking is a mess. I dont feel sorry for people who dont pay there bill.

Hey glaubert, can you afford the car payment too?

Why get rid of a "clunker" if it works just fine and it is paid for? What is your rate of return for replacing that clunker?

Some people don't think things through.

On a side note: By the way, many dealerships have not received their checks for this from Big Daddy government.

Well it is over and it did sell quite a few vehicles to those who could afford them. But it did a great disservice to those who had cars that needed repairs and were unable to find parts to use. Not everyone could afford to pruchase a new vehicle but could have fixed up their old one had they been able to find some good used parts. The  biggest travesty of this program was the immediate and wanton destruction of the motors of these vehicles. Not everyone could afford to buy a new vehicle but some could have actually put the motors of some of the traded in "clunkers" to use in order to buy some time until they could afford to buy another vehicle. As usual, the ones who had the least were called upon to make the biggest sacrifices so that those who have the most could have even more. I guess that is the "American Way, isn't it??

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