Housing crisis set to enter new stage - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

Housing crisis set to enter new stage

Posted Aug 21 2009, 07:11 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:

The march of good news continues for housing. Existing home sales jumped 7.2% between June and July -- the largest increase in over a decade and the fastest pace in nearly two years -- according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Prices are down 15% compared to last year.

A combination of cheap distressed properties, seasonal trends, low interest rates, and tax credits for first-time buyers is working its magic. But a number of issues have me worried that instead of an end to this epic housing nightmare -- we are about to enter a new stage.

Bing: More on home prices

The first problem is that the current buying trends are by no means normal with a large percentage of sales focused on foreclosures, short-sales, or other forced transactions rooted in financial distress.

According to a survey by Inside Mortgage Finance, only 10% of overall sales are coming from what could be considered a normal sales process. It's no wonder, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting Thursday that more than one in eight mortgage holders are in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure. RealtyTrac reported that July foreclosures jumped 7% compared to June. In a situation like this, with the impetus on the seller to unload quickly, prices will naturally gravitate lower.

This brings us to the second issue: The change in focus from subprime borrowers unable to refinance loans because of falling home values to prime borrowers unable to pay their bills because of job loss. According to the MBA survey, 58% of new foreclosure starts originated in the well-to-do prime loan category, up from 44% last year. Meanwhile, subprime borrowers were responsible for only 33% of foreclosures, down from 49% last year. As foreclosures affect a larger and larger swath of the population, it will only add to the number of properties on the market.

The third problem is the looming wave of loan resets in 2010 and 2011. As you can see in the chart above, a large number of prime, Alt-A, and Option ARM borrowers will be facing the prospect of higher payments just as the housing market digests the fallout from the subprime problem of 2007 and 2008. Notice the pleasant dip in reset activity for 2009. Plus, should the economy actually start recovering, the Federal Reserve could be forced to raise interest rates during this period.

And finally, we have the inventory issue. Despite the uptick in sales, the inventory of existing homes for sale actually increased 7.3% to 4.1 million last month. I have talked about a "shadow inventory" of homes owned by people just waiting for a smidgen of good news to list their homes. Now we see the dynamic in action: Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist, said the increase was the result of "some held back inventory coming back to the market."

It's also worth mentioning the crisis of confidence that is set to develop as the peak buying season ends and prices reaccelerate their downward slide. In its latest survey, Zillow found that a full 81% of homeowners believe their home won't fall in value over the next six months. Adding to the perception that people are losing touch with reality, only 60% believed the value of their home had fallen over the last year; when 83% of all homes actually lost value during that time.

The cold chill of falling home equity awaits many Americans this winter -- just in time for the holiday shopping season. Not only does this spell trouble for homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI), the U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), and the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), but for aspriational retailers like Coach (COH) and big toy manufacturers like Arctic Cat (ACAT) as well.

Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.

Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below. 

Related reading:

Housing crisis set to enter new stage

Get ready for 'cash-for-washers'

Where have the shoppers gone?

Wall Street worries as September approaches

Comments

 

I have a possible explanation why "only 60% believed the value of their home had fallen over the last year."  Look at the valuation on your property tax bill.  City Haul wouldn't lie to you, would they?

OverTaxed, you are right.  Why doesn't anyone in the media ever say that the reason that most people are broke is because we are simply being taxed to death?  The government (at all levels and all the different taxes) takes nearly half of what Americans earn.  And it seems to me that Congress is just getting started...

You guys are right. The tax burden is way too heavy in this country. Particularly when the rish is screwed by Obama, the rest of us will have to carry the most burden.

What puzzles me most is that every time when there is budget shortfall, governments at all level ALWAYS talk about cutting  SERVICES, not cutting  the bueacrats! Can't they just slash the size of government at all level by HALF? I bet we'll still be fine if the size of government slash into half of what it is now.

Welcome to communism, comrades. Let's pay those taxes so all people can be equal.

What do you mean we are being taxed to death?  Most are paying less taxes! Didn't  anyone listen to our great President Obama! He Promised the majority of people would pay less taxes, so all you people complaining must be super rich, so stop your complaining. I Love This Change!

We are paying less taxes....if you don't have a job you pay less taxes!

The problem is that the state taxes have not changed. While you might pay less in federal taxes, the states have added or not changed their taxes. I say this coming from Arizona, where they took the so called tax refund/rebate by adding it to the state income taxes. The main problem with home prices is that there are so many foreclosures out there that it has driven the prices down for everyone else; leaving no equity in your house. Additionally, the reluctance of the banking industry to work with people that are not in foreclosure or are current right now has not helped. People will continue to default on there loans when they see that is the only way to get help. And to all you people that are going to say "you should have bought a house you could afford"; I did buy a house that was affordable. The problem is that know when I would like to sell the house, it becomes impossible to do so. So now I am saddled with a house that his worth nothing.

For many years our county assessor justified our huge tax bills are based on the high home values. This year we got a letter in advance telling us all that despite the falling values of the homes in Will County Illinois, we should not ask for a reduction in taxes because they simply reset the multiplier for our tax base to allow the crooks to still take what they need to cover the ineffecient and overspending government. Nice they can change reasons when it suits them...

I agree with the author that the housing crisis is indeed about to enter the next stage.  There are simply too many loans about to reset over the next two years, and too many people who are so upside down that they are just going to walk away (I'm not saying that's okay, I'm just stating that I feel there will be lots of jingle mail).

A third component is this:  investors are indeed snapping up property to flip/rent, but they aren't going to be able to do either as more houses flood the market, so investors are going to put even more houses back on the selling block.

I am renting through 2012, as prices for houses will continue to drop.  

For all of those who were looking for a CHANGE - There you have the change, and folks do not worry, this is just the beginning, there is more, more to come and WE the people will always be the ones to suffer this CHANGE.  The PEOPLE WAS WARNED , but they didn't listen.  There is HOPE if we stop the madness.

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):