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Clash of the home-improvement titans

Posted Aug 19 2009, 10:30 AM by James Dlugosch
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Image credit: Ildar Sagdejev, GNU Free Documentation licenseIn the home improvement retail space, an interesting battle is brewing between Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).

Home Depot, the first mover in the space, has dominated the category with its sheer size. Upstart Lowe's, on the other hand, carved out its niche by focusing on the female market and cleaner, easier to understand stores. Both wanted to be very big, and they both succeeded -- the total market capitalization of these two is more than $75 billion. That's big, but they used to be bigger.

Bing: More on Lowe's and Home Depot

The collapse of the home building market sent both companies spiraling over the last few years. During that time, shares of both companies have been on a parallel path mostly downward.

But that may be changing based on the results from last quarter.

First up on Monday was Lowe's (LOW). The smaller of the two companies reported earnings of $759 million or 51 cents per share for the second quarter. Analysts were expecting 54 cents. Revenue in the period dropped 4.6% to $13.8 billion. For the rest of the year, LOW reduced profit guidance to $1.13 to $1.21 per share.

On the flip side, Home Depot (HD) reported results that beat expectations. HD reported a profit of 66 cents per share versus expectations of 59 cents per share. Unlike LOW, HD raised its guidance for the rest of the year.

Home Depot now expects profits to be flat to up 7% versus last year. Previous guidance was for a drop of 7%. That's a huge difference that may separate the company from competitor Lowe's.

The market adjusted to the new competitive landscape immediately. Shares of Lowe's traded lower, while Home Depot shares increased in value on the heels of the respective reports.

Within the business landscape some of the most intriguing battles take place amongst the biggest players in an industry. These clashes of titans make for very interesting investment opportunities.

That adjustment poses an interesting valuation question. HD now trades for about 18 times expected current fiscal year earnings and 17 times following year estimates. On the other hand, LOW trades for 16 times current year expected profit and 15 times 2011 estimates.

Those numbers are fungible as suggested by current quarter guidance. If HD earns more than expected, the stock will look cheaper from a valuation perspective and vice versa.

What seems certain is that Home Depot has used the weakness in the economy to improve head-to-head performance against Lowe's. Stores are cleaner and easier to use than in the past, and employees appear to be quite willing and motivated to improve the experience.

LOW's recent performance is troubling in that a poor quarter does not happen in isolation. It's likely that the trends that hurt performance in the second quarter will continue.

Based on such a trend, the horse to bet on in this race is Home Depot.

Don't forget to check out my Top Stocks tracking portfolio at Wall Street Survivor.

At the time of this writing, James Dlugosch did not own shares of LOW or HD in personal or client portfolios.

Image credit: Ildar Sagdejev, GNU Free Documentation license

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Comments

 

I am a do-it-yourselfer, (added on a 600 sq ft 2nd story addition) so I spend a lot more time and money in these stores than the average amateur. There is very little difference in products, service, and appearance. Of course among the 100,000 different items they carry you can find a few items that very by brand and price. But for the most part there is not much difference. Home Depot is a little closer so I usually start there first, but only because of location. I can only think of marketing and location as the only advantages that HD has over Lowes.

There are both a Lowes and a Home Depot within 5 miles of each other in a town with a population of only 28,000.  Lowes is the most recent arrival on the scene.  Their store has the advantage of newer merchandising, but HD has the bulk of longer term customer loyality.  Lowes has a marketing problem which I know has resulted in many lost sales.  Low'es internal signage is in both english and spanish.  In a market that is predominently French Canadian (Maine) this is viewed as cultural insenitivity and has effectively offended much of the local population.  I would be surprised if this store survives in the long run.

As a contractor, all I can say, is Lowes is second.  Home Depot always has better quality lumber and lower prices in General.  Locally here Menards is way more competitve with HD.  If my recent purchase of a nail gun was any indication, Lowes has a long way to go.   There is a lot of truth in the articles mention of catering to women, but I think Home Depot is better off catering to the trades.

First it was 84 Lumber, then Payless Cashways, then Builder's Square, now Home Depot and Lowe's.  The perceived benefit of the "big box" store seems to be waining.  I've got a Ace Hardware where I go to pick up the majority of the small things I buy.  No long hike across the parking lot, or inside the store, looking for a box of nails.  Park at the front door, in and out in five minutes.  I see them both going the way of the shopping mall.

One thing I have noticed between the two stores is that Lowe's has more 'finished' product than HD.  Looking at the lighting, carpeting, cabinets, hardware, etc. it seems like Lowe's has more offerings.  If you compare deck hardware in the two stores Lowe's has better there as well (more variety - which is very nice if you want your deck to look a little more classy/unique).  It does seem though that HD gets more of the people in that do the work (market perception that it is the place that knows how to do the below-the-finished-surface work?).

From the behind-the-scene look I know HD is catching up on the supply chain, so that will add cost reductions (adding to the bottom line).

Roger-

Ace, True Value, etc. can't compete on price and can't cover lumber/building materials though.  It is too bad as they tend to be better service, but they do have a niche of more hard to find stuff.

I own one house (mine) my mother in laws , and two rental properties, so I am a big user of hardware and building supplies. I spend 80% of my dollars at the locla TrueValue hardware store, a mom and pop establishment.  So far I have found that the prices are ALWAYS cheaper than any big-box store, the quality is ALWAYS better, there are a lot more Made in America products there (almost nothing in Lowe's and HD) and the service is exemplary. Also the knowledte of what to do and how to talk me through a difficult problem is at the Ace-True-Value stores.  I only go to Lowe's when I need something exotic like a light fixture that the hardware store doesn't carry or I can't get at the local hardware store. Now I'm learning to do without. The stuff at Loews and HD is cheaply made , expensive, and it breaks too often. And the service sucks.

Home Depot has in my book always had better pricing. I don't care about clean stores, I'm there for products not entertainment. What I do see as a nuisance is the "self check" registers. While this may cut labor overhead, it's annoying to try to scan large items (on the rare chance I only have a few things and attempt the self check) without putting it in the bag tray.

Ace Hardware does a great job of signage, advertising, and marketing. Once you add all of those business expenses into cost of goods, they just lost me as a customer. Not interested in paying MORE for an item because they have a color flyer that goes out.

Home Depot in my opinion has better quality skilled tradespeople in each department. They usually know their stuff.

lowes is almost always cheaper on decorative stuff and trim. as for HD having better lumber, save a lot of money and go to a lumberyard.

Home Depot? I'm not going to shop anywhere that pays their CEO over 200 million a year like they did Nardelli. That's bull.

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