Clash of the home-improvement titans
Posted
Aug 19 2009, 10:30 AM
by
James Dlugosch
Rating:
In the home improvement retail space, an interesting battle is brewing between Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).
Home Depot, the first mover in the space, has dominated the category with its sheer size. Upstart Lowe's, on the other hand, carved out its niche by focusing on the female market and cleaner, easier to understand stores. Both wanted to be very big, and they both succeeded -- the total market capitalization of these two is more than $75 billion. That's big, but they used to be bigger.
Bing: More on Lowe's and Home Depot
The collapse of the home building market sent both companies spiraling over the last few years. During that time, shares of both companies have been on a parallel path mostly downward.
But that may be changing based on the results from last quarter.
First up on Monday was Lowe's (LOW). The smaller of the two companies reported earnings of $759 million or 51 cents per share for the second quarter. Analysts were expecting 54 cents. Revenue in the period dropped 4.6% to $13.8 billion. For the rest of the year, LOW reduced profit guidance to $1.13 to $1.21 per share.
On the flip side, Home Depot (HD) reported results that beat expectations. HD reported a profit of 66 cents per share versus expectations of 59 cents per share. Unlike LOW, HD raised its guidance for the rest of the year.
Home Depot now expects profits to be flat to up 7% versus last year. Previous guidance was for a drop of 7%. That's a huge difference that may separate the company from competitor Lowe's.
The market adjusted to the new competitive landscape immediately. Shares of Lowe's traded lower, while Home Depot shares increased in value on the heels of the respective reports.
Within the business landscape some of the most intriguing battles take place amongst the biggest players in an industry. These clashes of titans make for very interesting investment opportunities.
That adjustment poses an interesting valuation question. HD now trades for about 18 times expected current fiscal year earnings and 17 times following year estimates. On the other hand, LOW trades for 16 times current year expected profit and 15 times 2011 estimates.
Those numbers are fungible as suggested by current quarter guidance. If HD earns more than expected, the stock will look cheaper from a valuation perspective and vice versa.
What seems certain is that Home Depot has used the weakness in the economy to improve head-to-head performance against Lowe's. Stores are cleaner and easier to use than in the past, and employees appear to be quite willing and motivated to improve the experience.
LOW's recent performance is troubling in that a poor quarter does not happen in isolation. It's likely that the trends that hurt performance in the second quarter will continue.
Based on such a trend, the horse to bet on in this race is Home Depot.
Don't forget to check out my Top Stocks tracking portfolio at Wall Street Survivor.
At the time of this writing, James Dlugosch did not own shares of LOW or HD in personal or client portfolios.
Image credit: Ildar Sagdejev, GNU Free Documentation license
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