Housing recovery under way (just not here)
Posted
Jul 17 2009, 07:18 PM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
The situation in the housing market has stabilized somewhat. Mortgage rates, which had gotten as high as 5.74% last month, are falling again and appear to be headed back down to 5%. Housing starts jumped 3.6% in June month-over-month after a 17.3% spike in May. New building permits jumped 8.7% last month and 4% in May.
But elsewhere in the world, the situation is much better. Homeowners are once again enjoying the benefits of price appreciation and rising home equity, according to ISI Group economists in New York. In New Zealand, home sales are up nearly 70% compared to last year while prices are up 2.4%. In nearby Australia, mortgage approvals are up 33%. In Canada, housing permits are up 27%. Hong Kong property prices are up 10.2%. And in China, home prices are rising again after a period of declines.
Given how important home equity is to consumer spending, it's not surprising that these economies are perking up as a result -- especially exporters like China and Japan. Chinese car sales are up 68% from their low. Brazilian sales are up 77%. German steel production increased 26%. Japanese machine tool orders are up 56% as consumer confidence has increased to levels not seen since 2007.

In fact, because of all these trends, foreign consumers will soon replace American shoppers as the main driver of global economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, from a high near 20% in 2000, U.S. shoppers are consuming about 12.4% of total world imports. In comparison, Chinese shoppers are consuming 8.4% share -- and rising fast. In terms of market share of Chinese imports, the United States ranks behind Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
Given the imbalances that brought about the current crisis, including excessive Asian savings and excessive U.S. consumption, these are all welcome signs the world's economy is healing. Country-specific ETFs such as the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI), the iShares MSCI Korea (EWY), or the iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT) all look attractive.
Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.
Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.
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