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Buffett calls for second stimulus

Posted Jul 09 2009, 11:10 AM by Catherine Holahan
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Warren Buffet (© Paul White/AP)Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has joined the chorus of prominent political figures and businessmen calling for a second stimulus.

The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway told ABC's Good Morning America that the first $787 billion stimulus didn't do enough to help the economy and included too many earmarks for politicians' pet projects.

"Our first stimulus bill . . . was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in," Buffett said in the interview, "as if everybody was putting in enough for their own constituents."

The call, one of several Buffett has made in recent weeks, came after Buffett had praised the Federal Reserve's efforts to pump money into the economy in interviews on CNBC and Bloomberg television.

It also followed comments by officials in President Barack Obama's administration maintaining that the government would continue a second stimulus should the economy continue to deteriorate. However, the administration said it is not currently discussing a second aid package. 

Vice President Joe Biden said earlier this month that the government had misjudged the depth of the recession and that it would be willing to take additional action in the future. World leaders indicated a second stimulus could be called for as well during the G-8 summit in Italy. 

The call for a second stimulus may seem shocking given the amount of money already spent, lent or committed by the White House and the Federal Reserve in an attempt to pull the country from the brink of depression.  An analysis by Bloomberg put the figure at $12.8 trillion.

That amount includes the stimulus package, bank and insurer bailouts, loans to the auto industry, U.S. Treasury purchases, money pledged to buy back bundles of troubled mortgage securities, funds committed to backing up the FDIC, and money earmarked for helping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac restructure mortgages.

The reason for the incredible call for more public funds is the shocking cuts in consumer spending. Personal consumption has accounted for about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product in recent years. It is the engine that our economy runs on. But it has stalled as Americans have lost their jobs and massive amounts of wealth.

More than $14 trillion has evaporated from Americans' net worth due to steep declines in property values and market investments during the past two years. That's in addition to the trillions that Americans are no longer earning due to record unemployment and under-employment.

"The consumer is tapped out," said Diane Shand, a director at Standard & Poor's covering retail companies. "They can't access the equity in their homes anymore, and a lot of it really has to do with the unemployment picture."

The unemployment rate is at a 26-year high of 9.5% and is expected to reach 10% before the year's end. More than 14.7 million people are unemployed. The number of folks struggling to find work jumps to 25.5 million after adding all the Americans who have either given up looking for work or are stuck in part-time or temporary jobs due to the unavailability of full-time employment.

Without a recovery in consumer spending, the economy will continue its downward spiral. The GDP declined about 5.5% in the first quarter of this year, due in large part to consumer cutbacks.

The government is hoping that private money will follow its public investments. In theory, funds for stimulus projects should flow to businesses spurring them to increase spending and create more jobs, ultimately leading to a recovery in consumer spending.  But, so far, the economy hasn't seen much in the way of a consumer spending boost (though private money has flowed to the rescued banks).

That's partially because the government hasn't spent much of what it has promised. Only 10% to 15% of the $787 billion stimulus has been put to work. However, even that little amount appears to have spurred some positive sentiment. Consumer spending did rise about 0.3% in May on top of a 0.7% rise in April. That's certainly not a lot. But it wasn't a decline.

The fear is that all that money flowing from the government will ultimately prove insufficient to reverse the economy's negative trajectory. If the government doesn't have a plan in place to commit more funds to truly reverse the economy's course, some argue that any good from the current stimulus will be negated by continued high unemployment and depressed consumer spending.

One problem with pledging more funds is inflation. The more money the government promises to fight the recession, the more it will stoke concerns about inflation or stagflation: a period in which the dollar's value declines despite a lack of real economic growth. The risk of either inflation or stagflation could cause investors to demand higher returns to buy U.S. debt. The U.S. doesn't want to promise to pay even more in the future when the economy's growth is uncertain. The national debt is already at $11.5 trillion -- about $36,532 per person.

Related reading:

What if we spent every penny?

America in financial crisis

Coming: A 3rd wave of foreclosures

What's ahead for stocks

Comments

 

Buffett has been a fantastic investor & evaluator in businesses & investments so why is he so wrong in fiscal policy? He would NEVER invest in a business that takes on HUGE debt to spend on a business plan that has repeatedly failed- so again why is it a good idea for We the People to borrow & spend our way to prosperity? Simple it's not. Lower taxes a lot and spending even more and behold the power of the market. Figure it out Warren it is NOT that complicated: Govt= waste, inefficiency, fraud and abuse.

To start with, most of the "stimulus" money has yet to be spent. It takes too long to take effect, and Buffett is right; it contains too much pet pork. Wake up, I think another stimulus bill is more likely to stoke inflation than anything else. If you want to do something, stop this cap and trade bureaucratic nonsense and forget the nationalizing of healthcare. I don't care what they say about healthcare reform, the end result will be nationalized and rationed healthcare. In lieu of all of that spending, put in place some permanent tax cuts. Making the Bush tax cuts permanent would do it. After all, it is the private sector—the engine of the economy— that creates all the wealth, not the public sector. All those stimulus created jobs will go away after the stimulus money runs out, unless they end up built into the government structure and end up as another drag on the economy—permanently. At very best, stimulus bills have only temporary effects. Tax cuts let American ingenuity flourish!

So who is becoming a billionaire using this stimulus money?  Who keeps track of it?  It should be going to the tax payers as relief from Government intervention; those that delve into our pocketbooks looking to see if we have anything left.  

It is our money.  The Federal Government can't control themselves with it.  They are like the drunk Englishman that went to Spain and gave his inheiritance away.  They sent him home.  Exactly what we should be doing with our Congressional members.

Give us Tax free wages for the rest of this year and for 2010 and the economy will come back very nicely, thank you.  

I really think the money should be dispursed to the people thet make less than 100.000.00 per year. After all the are the spenders of this country. The people would FLUSH the money back into the industries that are struggling. Such as the banks and auto world and the smarter ones will invest in the market and stocks and bonds. With this in mind it would be tricky to give it to the people that are not depending on government aid already. (welfare cases) Or people that collect welfare checks.

Why is the money promised not fully into play.  I have been on sites that indicate certain funds, mainly for infrastructure,  may not start flowing until 2010 or 2011. That is quite sometime from now, when many people could use the work and trickle down effect it is supposed to trigger.  There is money allocated for construction projects, we need to get them started.

Curt- I know your plan to redistribute the wealth to those most in need sounds nice and practical but it is neither. It is immoral and completely wasteful. The 'Stimulus' is money taken from productive members of society- you say those making under $100k are the 'spenders' but that is preposterous. What do 'rich' people do with their money- hide it in the wine cellar? NO they invest it in businesses, equities, bonds, real estate, etc that multiplies and creates jobs. The way it is SUPPOSED to be. Taking from the rich and giving to the poor is STEALING, if I break into your house an take it directly or if the govt confiscates it via payroll witholding it is wrong. The govt does NOT have any money it only takes from tax-paying citizens (an increasingly shrinking pool). Let's all get our hands out of the other guys pockets and take care of ourselves.

Buffett I believe has gone off the deep end on this one. Jim Rodgers may have it right when he says,"Warren Buffett can't pick stocks any more!"

No more stimulus, we all are toughing it out. It is time the government, big business, take a pay cut too and join the fun we are having. The government continues to get their annual pay raise. What a bunch of hypocrites. I have a small business and did my best in 2006. 2007 business dropped in half, again in 2008 and this year I am just barely hanging on with again 50% loss of revenue. Maybe when government officials and big business execs. take a 50% loss in pay year after year for themselves we might care what they think. I am definately voting everyone in office out next election.  

It seems to me that the talk of a second stimulus is mostly politically motivated. Obama needs a rising stock market to make the people feel good enough to pass healthcare and environmental reforms. The solution is to talk about another stimulus while not preparing for one. This is at a time when the $787 billion stimulus has not yet been spent.

And wouldn't this be the third stimulus? Maybe we've all forgotten the $600 direct-to-consumers stimulus because it was soaked up by rising oil prices and completely ineffective.

The govt CAN"T give anything to anyone it doesn't first take from someone else. If my daughter sold $100 worth of lemonade at her stand, and i'm the only person who bought any, well how much wealth (ie jobs) did she actually create? ZERO. Thats the same thing our govt is trying to do. Take my money, use it to create some usless job for a useless person, then say they created a job and stimulated the economy. Their only criteria for job growth is it must be a job that wasn't there before. Who cares if its useless. Has Obama even considered whats going to happen to all these jobs once the money runs out?  If the govt. would just get out of the way, STOP trying to fix all of our problems, we would all be MUCH better off. Give me a tax cut. I'll go spend my money on a new TV or a second car and that will stimulate the economy.

   Buffet says there was too much pork in the first stimulus. Well whose fault is that? Its the fault of the people who created the bill. And now we're supposed to trust that they'll get it right the second time around? Get real.  If people don't wake up to this BS fast, we're all going to be in a world of hurt. Obama will run our country into the ground.  

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