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Consumer worrywarts threaten stock rally

Posted Jun 30 2009, 05:02 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Another so-called "green shoot" of economic growth is starting to wilt. After bounding higher in April and May, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged 10% this month as higher gas prices and ongoing job losses brought back some pessimism. This calls into question the longevity of the S&P 500's 36% rally since March, the steepest rise in seven decades.

Last month the Conference Board's index of 10 leading economic indicators rose 1.2% -- moving to an eight-month high. But 40% of the increase was tied to survey data including consumer expectations. The other 60% was the result of financial variables: the stock market, money supply and the yield curve.

If we propose that consumer and investor expectations are overly optimistic, and are now beginning to come back to reality, then all we are left with is the Fed's manipulations of the money supply and interest rates. This is a shaky basis for a continuing rise in stock prices. 

Breaking down the consumer confidence numbers, those saying jobs were plentiful fell 1.3% to just 4.5% while those saying jobs were hard to get rose nearly 1% to 44.8%. The expectations index fell to 65.5 from 71.5. According to Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, this metric "does a decent job in predicting the near-term trend in consumer spending." This bodes ill for retailers' second-quarter numbers. It also bodes ill for those thinking the recession will end in the third quarter.

The present situation component went from 29.7 to 24.8. Back when the economy was moving out of recession in November 2001, the measure was at 84.9. At the end of the 1991 slowdown it was at 81.1. When the 1982 recession came to a close, it was at 57.4. Rosenberg says: "Never before has a recession ended with confidence as low as it is today."

Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.

Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below. 

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Comments

 

Are economists so married to the numbers that they can't see what's right in front of their faces or are they all just daft?

Do you want to SEE America's condition and frame of mind? Drive down Automobile Row on a Saturday afternoon, go to your local home supply center, visit the mall, count the traffic on the highways, find all the closed businesses, look at the trash buildup and unmowed edges on the roads or even unmowed lawns for that matter.

NO MATTER what surveys say, what the numbers INDICATE or how much optimism the latest pump and dump scheme can conjur, America is HURTING and in strict hoarding survival mode right now. There will be NO breaking them loose of it until jobs become available, either. This recession/recssion/recession will not end until America's companies show some kind of faith and loyalty to its workers again by offering the nation's unemployed jobs...period!

There will be no economic recovery until the issue of unemployment is successfully addressed and confidence in the economy has been restored. But the policies and political agenda of the currect administration are conscientiously and actively contrary to reducing unemployment, they're adding to increasing unemployment.  The almost daily outrageous spending programs that are relentlessly being proposed are finantially unrealistic, economically destructive,  and incapable of being funded.  This week it's Cap & Trade and Healthcare.  Previously it was stimulus, bailouts, nationalization of the banking system and automotive industry. Not only was the concept and eventual implementation poorly handled, all the costs are borne by existing businesses, those currently employed, and future generations. The huge burden of suffocating debt hanging over the US economy is the polar opposite of reducing unemployment.   As the cost of doing business increases primarily to higher taxes, it will undoubtedly negatively inpact the number of workers on the companies' payrolls; and encourage American companies to outsource more of their manufacturing and production as a means of remaining competitive.

This administration's goal is to intentionally wreck the American capitalist society as we have known it during our lifetime.  They intend to deconstruct our political, social, and economic systems and replace them with their marxist/socialist view of society as having been taught in most American universities since the sixties.  They are the elitist intellectuals from Yale, Harvard, Princeton, who think they are so damn smart they will dictate to the rest of us and micromanage how we will lead our lives.  The elitists want total power and control.  Americans will be expected to embrace the "do as I say, not as I do" philosophy from the D.C. bureaucrats.

And the best way to implement their agenda is to wreck the existing economic system with crushing spending and entitlement programs.  The secular progressive views prominent in society have been a work in progress since getting a jump start in the mid 1960's from the chaos created by Vietnam.  They've been wildly successful so far!!

Capitalism doesn't need Obama to destroy it.  It's doing a fine enough job of that itself.  Gee, consumer confidence is down.  Could it be because I fired a bunch of people to save my profit margin?  How about because I insist on upping my prices every time gas prices go up?  Could my desire to see GM's debt holders get as much of their money back as possible even if that means the company folds scare people into thinking that they'll always be the ones to lose their jobs to protect the wealth of the wealthy?  Could the same thing be happening because we paid bonuses out of bailout money?  Could my anti union stance cause people to beleive that they'll never get ahead, and they're destined to be dirt poor wage slaves the rest of their lives?  Could the lack of any safety net, public or private scare people into never spending another dime more than they have to?  I could go on.

I still say that by year's end, Obama will give a speach saying that against his better judgement, he gave bailout money to companies in order for the free market to get started up again.  That it failed because the wealthy took the money and used it to protect their own interests, while taking actions that raised unemployment by double in a year's time (if not greater) and hurt numerous other ecconomic indicators.  That the process will repeat itself next year as companies see reducing profit margins caused by people spending less due to reduced earning power, and terminate more people.  That these capitalists say they can do great things, but take their money and cower at the first sign of ecconomic trouble.  That they have had numerous oppertunities to counter to what he (Obama) was proposing, and did nothing but sit and while about a socialist adgenda.  That any solution to our ecconomic problems couldn't cost them anything in money or goverment regualtions.  That these aren't capitalists that will save us and he is forced to take (back) the ball that they refuse to pick up or watch america become a third world country that only works to pay it's financial debts to other countires because it  can no longer create its own wealth.

I'm sorry, but the more blog comments I read, the more I see Obama's eventual behaviour as a parent taking a hard line with a kid.  You were supposed to [blank].  You didn't.  I will then, but don't expect your allowance.  Sitting around complaining how unfair it is only justifies his position.  People voted for who they felt was in their best interests, and that wasn't you.  You can try and be what's good for them again, you you may as well kiss the free market goodbye.

dollar burger anyone?...........excuse me while I sew my underwear and socks...again.

Redd,

Why would any of these people up at the top of our private industry care about anyone down the line when they are 100% protected from failure by the government. Look at who was "bailed out", not the homeowners, not the "average worker", not the citizens of this country.

The only ones who get bailed out are high end, huge salary folks.

The big banks and insurance comapnies get to skate by with no bankruptcy so that THEIR financial system remans intact to extort the next generation through another round of debt and inflation. All the while propping up a system that creates a financial incentive not to produce locally and instead send it overseas.

The auto companies get bailed out so that they can keep the same sturcture in place that allows shareholders the luxury of the status quo instead of having to sell off brands to other firms (like Penske), allowing entrepranuers to try their hand at auto manufacturing.

And the union...like their upper manegement really cares about their members. If they truly cared about expanding their numbers and providing long-term sustanable employment opportunites, they would have restructured themselves long ago. Instead they are just like any other company we love to hate nowadays - trying to get handouts from the government at the expense of everyone else to keep the same structure intact.

Capitalism? please.. It's cronyism. It's all about who you know and how much money they can print. We have a glorious opportunity for real, market driven change. But nobody wants it to take place if it with degrade THEIR position in the world. Instead we are just trodding down the path of more inflation, more debt, more outsourcing, and more of the same.

JB

I think the point is that they won't be 100% protected for long if they keep making the same choices.  If not this year, certainly before congressional elections, Obama will say that he tried to beleive that what the free marketers say is true.  That all it needed was an emergency second chance and they'd get it togetther.  That they would ccreate the wealth and jobs for everyone.  And finally that he was sadly dssappointed.  The Democrats either are employing you or will be soon, while the Republican's plans all involve heaping more money (in tax cuts) to people that will do the same thing they did with the bailout monies, so who should you put your trust in to keep food on your table?

Just a conspiricay theory of mine: that Obama is giving the capitalists enough rope to hang themselves so that he can impliment his plans with impunity, and quieten the voices from the other side that say their ideas will work beter.

Redd,

I see what you are saying, however I think you have a different view of "Capitalism" than I. I dont think ANY of those banks are "capitalists". They may spout market ideas like free trade, lower taxes, (which I tend to agree with) etc... but they themselves use the Federal Reserve and its government granted monopoly on money and credit to force their debt and inflation down the throats of the average citizen - all the while claiming "dont't worry, it will be better for you" or "deflation is the devil, we need to print more capital". It is this monetary system that has been nowhere near "capitalistic" and is hardly ever questioned.

It was interest rates (too low) and an expansion of credit to a whole bunch of people, not just those that historically wouldnt have been able to get it, that allowed the asset bubble to take place in the first place - all of which are controlled, to some extent, by the Fed.

The republicans dont even know what the free market is anymore because , since they have to promise something to their constituents to get their votes, will always end up supporting some government program or another. Unfortunately, the democrats are just a whole lot better at it because they actually believe their programs can help.

I just reread Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom" and it is eerily familiar to todays political landscape when he details how, prior to WWII, both the political left and right of Germany seemed to be so close in ideology that it was easy to convince one from the right to agree with one from the left - all the while they both were convinced of the benefits of the centralization of economic controls and reviled any ideas that would now be coined as "classical liberalism".

As "Omar Khayam" (name spelled incorrectly), said, "Take the cash and let the credit go, and heed not the sound of the distant drum(s)"

I AM A REPUBLICAN-AND I BELIEVE MY PARTY IS DEAD.VOTES REPEAT VOTES ELECT OFFICIALS.THE DEMOCRATS ARE BUYING THEM AS WE SPEAK  WITH THE MONEY THE 50% OF US THAT PAY TAXES ARE CONTRIBUTING.AMERI-CORP IS BEING TRIPLED(COLLEGE VOTE)AUTO MAKERS GIVING 25% OF THEIR COMPANY'S FUTURE EARNING POWER TO UNIONS.WELFARE SKYROCKETING,TAXES INCREASED ON THE RICH,HANDOUTS TO THE NOT-SO'S-EARNED INCOME CREDITS INCREASED,ON AND ON.SAY GOODBYE TO THE RIGHT AND GET READY FOR SOMETHING NONE OF US CAN PREDICT

Better get back up into your tree in the jungle then and let the real King of the Jungle show you how it's done.

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