Consumer worrywarts threaten stock rally
Posted
Jun 30 2009, 05:02 PM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
Another so-called "green shoot" of economic growth is starting to wilt. After bounding higher in April and May, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged 10% this month as higher gas prices and ongoing job losses brought back some pessimism. This calls into question the longevity of the S&P 500's 36% rally since March, the steepest rise in seven decades.
Last month the Conference Board's index of 10 leading economic indicators rose 1.2% -- moving to an eight-month high. But 40% of the increase was tied to survey data including consumer expectations. The other 60% was the result of financial variables: the stock market, money supply and the yield curve.
If we propose that consumer and investor expectations are overly optimistic, and are now beginning to come back to reality, then all we are left with is the Fed's manipulations of the money supply and interest rates. This is a shaky basis for a continuing rise in stock prices.

Breaking down the consumer confidence numbers, those saying jobs were plentiful fell 1.3% to just 4.5% while those saying jobs were hard to get rose nearly 1% to 44.8%. The expectations index fell to 65.5 from 71.5. According to Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, this metric "does a decent job in predicting the near-term trend in consumer spending." This bodes ill for retailers' second-quarter numbers. It also bodes ill for those thinking the recession will end in the third quarter.
The present situation component went from 29.7 to 24.8. Back when the economy was moving out of recession in November 2001, the measure was at 84.9. At the end of the 1991 slowdown it was at 81.1. When the 1982 recession came to a close, it was at 57.4. Rosenberg says: "Never before has a recession ended with confidence as low as it is today."
Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.
Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.
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