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What's fueling high gas prices?

Posted Jun 16 2009, 09:50 AM by Catherine Holahan
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Gas prices ©  Mark Weiss/Getty Images Drivers are shelling out far more to fill their tanks this summer than last winter, despite the severe economic downturn. And there's likely more pain to come at the pump.

Gasoline prices have risen sharply in the past month. This week, the average price for a gallon rose to $2.67, according to automotive group AAA. That's up more than 35% since December 2008.

To be sure, gas prices are still far less than consumers paid last summer. Oil prices hit a record high of $147 per barrel on July 11, 2008, pushing the average price of regular gasoline to $4.11. But the price of crude has soared in recent weeks. Prices jumped past $72 a barrel late last week, though they fell slightly on Monday as the dollar strengthened. (A stronger dollar reduces the desire to buy commodities as a hedge against inflation.)

Speculation shares some of the blame for price hikes


The recent gasoline price increases are perhaps more difficult for consumers to bear than even last summer's soaring prices. Unlike last July's spike -- which was fueled by increasing demand due to global economic growth, as well as speculation that the good economic times would continue - this year's increase is largely due to anticipation that the worst of the recession is over and that the economy will pick up. Unfortunately for many Americans and businesses, their personal fortunes have not improved along with investors' economic outlook, leaving them ill-prepared to pay higher prices.

Talk back
: Will high gas prices kill the recovery?

"Investors are feeling confident that we are going to come out of this recession and do so soon... and we are seeing a lot of cash flow back into the commodities markets," said Troy Green, AAA national spokesman. "So that is the primary reason that you are seeing the price of oil climb as significantly as it has over the past four weeks. It's not as if you are seeing increased demand [for oil and gasoline] domestically."

Demand for gas is still depressed


Demand for gasoline is still depressed due to the economy. Gross Domestic Product decreased 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009 and is expected to decline again this quarter. Unemployment is still climbing, despite the rate of layoffs slowing in recent weeks. About 9.4% of Americans - about 14.5 million people -- are unemployed, according to the most recent Labor Department statistics, released June 5.  That rate rises to 16.4% if all the recently laid-off workers who have taken temporary part-time jobs are included. Those people are no longer commuting to work and are unlikely to be taking long road-trip vacations.

Talk back: Why are gas prices soaring?

Airlines, a major consumer of fuel, are also not behind skyrocketing prices. The global airline industry is expected to lose $9 billion this year due to a 17% drop in air cargo and an 8% drop in passengers, according to a June 8 report by the International Air Transport Association.

Those hoping for lower gasoline prices may see a silver lining in all the negative economic news. Surely, all that's indicative of a speculation-fueled bubble poised to pop?

China is also a culprit in pump price hikes


Maybe. But there are some real factors fueling the price of gasoline, as well. Among them: increasing demand in China, production cuts by refineries and oil producing nations, and fear of inflation.

Despite the recession's impact on China's growth, demand for oil is still growing at a fast clip, say analysts.  Sanford C. Bernstein analysts Neil McMahon and Alexander Inkster believe that Chinese imports spiked in March and April. In a May 22 note to investors, the analysts cited the rise in imports and a steady increase in the amount of oil China is adding to its reserves as a key justification for the recent oil price surge.

"Satellite images confirm a significant increase in storage construction in the last few years," the analysts wrote. "This suggests that China is stock-piling crude oil." (The analysts told the Wall Street Journal that they were tracking how much China had increased its capacity using Google Earth satellite images.)

Oil refineries and OPEC have significantly cut production in hopes of stopping last year's price free-fall. As a result, when the economy improves there may not be enough capacity to meet demand in the short-run, creating upward pressure on prices. Oil refineries are running at about 82% of capacity. Refineries typically operate at upwards of 90% capacity in the peak summer months, says Green. OPEC, meanwhile, has pledged to cut production by about 4.2 million barrels a day. On Sunday, Venezuela's oil minister said that OPEC members had met about 86% of the cuts.

Inflation fears are also fueling oil prices. Investors are putting their cash into assets tied to the dollar, due to concerns that the U.S .government's massive stimulus spending will weaken the currency. Commodities, such as oil, typically rise in price along with the dollar. Thus, oil provides investors with a hedge against inflation.

Prices to hit $4 per gallon?

So how high will oil and gasoline rise? Sanford C. Bernstein's McMahon believes crude could reach $80 per barrel by next year. Last time oil hit that target, the price at the pump was about $3. Notoriously bullish energy analysts at Goldman Sachs (remember the $200-a-barrel prediction?) believe oil could hit about $85 per barrel, fueling the price per gallon of gasoline above the $3 mark.

Related Reading:
The hidden costs behind gas prices
How investors can profit from pricey gas
12 ways to find cheap gas
A drop in drilling
Watch: Gas price woes

Updated June 15, 2009

Comments

 

Why don't we drill our own Oil and stop depending on other people!!!!

Speculation doesnt give people jobs or give people pay raises they have been denied so I speculate the price should be back to where people can afford.  If China is stock piling oil then how about OPEC imposing a stock pile tax on them or any other country that chooses to stock pile oil and affect the cost for the rest of the world.

The main reason for gas increases is "Greed".

Oil prices have been around $19 to$31 for more than three decades. Now all of sudden for the last 6 to 7 years prices are going through the roof. The reason is simple that oil producing companies, refineries, government, distributors, and gas pumps want to make more money at less oil volume. If you can get more money for less commodity, wouldn't you will like to do the same?

For that reason OPEC knows that if they can get more money by producing less, then why to produce more? Stock market knows that by putting fear of price rise, they can get more people investing in oil and make more money, then why not to do it? Government knows that if the tax rate at 18% gives 54 cents for a $3 gas then why bother? Distributors, and Gas pumps know that the margin of profit is more at $3 gas, then what is the harm?

The only harm is for the consumers, who are dying under the burden of job loss, foreclosures, loss of revenue (earning) , and on top of that to come up with more money for gas as there are no alternatives.

The present government does not want to invest in oil drilling, and nuclear plants, and is focussing on alternate energy which may take unknown years as these technologies may take so many years to get perfected.

If the government had invested in nuclear energy (like Fance did it), we would not be worrying about gas prices at all. We could have electric or fuel cell technology for vehicles which would have been environmental friendly as well, but we let electric and fuel cell technology die long time ago before they had chance to develop properly. I rememer news media projecting nuclear plants as nuclear bombs during those times. Now we are looking for these technology, but it is too late. Auto manufacturing companies are trying to produce electric and fuel cell vehicles at the cost of $30,000 or $40,000, which average american can not afford.

Another goof up by the government was to invest in bio-fuel from corn, which actually increased the cost of corn for common people. It did not reduce gas prices. Have you noticed that cost of E85 fuel tags along the cost regular fuel, only $0.50 less? When regular gas jumped to $4.25 per gallon, E85 was selling for $3.95. We all know that if a vehicle gives 20 miles per gallon, then on E85 it will give around 12 miles per gallon. Therefore, there is no benefit in using E85 for the consumers. The government should have invested in sugar cane, like Brazil which developed sugar cane bio-fuel, and also has sugar in plentyful (which by the way has also gone up here). Brazil is perhaps the only country in the world which does not import any drop of oil from any country including USA & OPEC (Countries who want demise of USA).

I think the present government should look carefully in all these issues and put focus accordingly. Some people say that nuclear, and oil drilling will also take four to five years, and are not environmental friendly. New technolgies have developed which can contain nuclear waste, and produce electricity consistently for many many years which can get rid of OPEC countries. These countries thrive on US dollars, and plan death of USA. They are never friendly, but they want our money.

just as GM fell and the banks failed, the oil industry is well on its way for a spill. The greed that drives business will be its own undoing. No this is not about doom and gloom but reality. Ask anyone who has squeeze oranges to make orange juice and they tell you after awhile the juice stops. People are being treated like oranges by the oil company, and after awhile the juice will run out. Greed! Greed! Greed! is the reason the prices are rising and those who will believe that its due to refining or summer additives well that's on you. But we know the rising price is all about GREEEEEEEEEEEEED!!!!!!

So what they are saying is that high fuel costs here are caused by China and price manipulation.

It sure is getting harder for joe blow to compete these days

C'mon big oil.  We're woozy and on the ropes.  This knockout can be yours if you just push prices a lil' bit higher...

Once again, thank you congress, for allowing the speculators to control the price of gas.  Their little tweek of the regulations in the 90's sure helped us citizens, didn't it?  How much are they getting in "campaign contributions" as a result?  

When demand  is down, and pricing is going up, something is obviously wrong.  And this time it is thta someone is pocketing a lot of our money with the help of Washington DC.  Obama, agent of change, right?

Remember this when it is time to vote.  NO incumbents, republicans, or democrats!

We are already above 3 dollars a gallon in northern california. We haven't reached the predicted barrel price but we sure have hit the projected price of gas already.

Rsh is totally right. Oh and by the way Obama is the 7th President since the Arab oil embargo and Opec started this mess in the 70s. My bet is he wont do anything either about it except talk tough. Ron Paul 2012.

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