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Will taxpayers get repaid in GM bankruptcy?

Posted May 29 2009, 12:23 PM by Kim Peterson
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Here's a shocker: The U.S. government probably won't get a full return on the billions of dollars it's pumping into General Motors (GM). The company is expected to file for bankruptcy next week.

Financial commentary site Breakingviews crunches the numbers and says that in order for the government to get back what it's put into GM, the restructured company would have to produce earnings to support an enterprise value of at least $95 billion, according to The New York Times. That's the total of a $69 billion market cap and $26 billion of debt and preferred stock.

To get there, GM would need around $19 billion in annual operating cash flow. It would need to hit the same cash flow benchmark that Toyota had in its best year ever, the Times writes. And GM would have to boost annual sales by 50% to $150 billion.

Keep in mind that this restructured GM will have probably lost the Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and Hummer lines. And its European business. And probably its Latin American business as well, the Times writes.

The government bill is up to $50 billion or more, a NYU business professor tells Bloomberg. And the government will own 72.5% of the new company.

So will the government be first in line for repayment? And how many cents on the dollar will it get back?

Image credit: James Marvin Phelps, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 license

Related reading:

Another roadblock to GM's bankruptcy is lifted

GM's demise has a silver lining: AutoZone

Crunchtime for General Motors

The UAW losing power as auto industry implodes

Do auto workers really earn $73 an hour?
Comments

 

For some reason I have known for years (at least 10) that GM would eventually file for bankruptcy protection.  I can't imagine I was the only one on the planet who could see this coming.  But, the idea that the US Government felt it necessary to pump billions of dollars into GM (and Chrysler and Wall Street) irks me to no end.  Just because GM is being 'saved', don't think I'm about to go out and purchase a GM product.  I have a 2004 4-cylinder manual Honda Accord with 150,000 miles and I think it will last till at least 300k.  Beat that, GM!

The taxpayers will never recover the wasted money given to Government Motors. GM will need to be propped up constantly as they will have the even more trouble competing as they did before. The UAW will tack on shoddy quality at an overpriced cost. I think even more American car buyers will be turned off by the bailout and more will turn to imports or Ford, as there is a growing number of Americans getting tired of this BS and will bypass GM anyway they can. Maybe GM employees and retirees will the only buyers left to buy their subsidized junk. They own it , they can buy it. Can't wait till the idiot in the white house is done   f 'in up everything. This country is gonna become a 2 class society, those getting entitlements and those that pay for for it. Eventually if screw all the productive members of society, all you have left are losers.

I agree with Taxpayer. I am fed up paying for the sins of others. The UAW can have GM. The American public is so turned off on how we have been ripped off by Obama and company that I am not sure GM will ever recover. You could not give me one of their cars at this point, I would not drive it. The taxpayers will never see a dime out of GM in repayment, the UAW will see to that.  Let Obama drive a GM car.

GM was probably defunct some time ago but wouldn't admit it.  I recall running the numbers a while back and found it astounding that GM could lose 17 billion in 07, but still feel the unions were the sole problem when costs estimates only had labour at 9 billion total (3 million cars at $30,000 at 10% of total cost being labour).  GM's management (its CEO making 14 times his Toyota counterpart) never got that ALL parts of a corporation need to compete globably, not just some.

Of course the taxpayer won't get its money back, but I feel that'll play into Obama's hands due to the "why" we're not getting paid back.  As investors fought more to get their investment back rather than keep people employed, Obama can them properly villify corporations and modern capitalism in the eyes of the labor force.  He'll say that these guys have always said they create jobs and build wealth for everybody but are no longer doing so, and are in fact now hording wealth for themselves.  He'll say against heis better judgement he gave these guys a loan to get them back on their feet, but no one would compromise to get the business running again, and seemed to expect labour to make all concessions.  Notice how much they love to take credit for a business' success, but blame failure completely on you.  Then he'll point out the government is hiring and providng better wages and pensions than the public sector is right now.  Without the cover of providing jobs, fewer will question taxing the wealthy, and socialism will be firmly in place.

So thank you capitalists for ruining it for the rest of us.  Some of us remembered that ultimately we are answerable to the people both as customers and voters.  If we don't do for them, they won't do for us.

Just like when someone asked a pundit on one of the sycophantic networks,, "When will we be able to repay the Chinese?"  You can hear Tiny Tim and Bernake laughing their asses off.   The treasury is printing debt that will surpass GDP with no hope ever of staving off the rampant inflation that will further destroy consumer abiltiy.   GM will be forced by the idiots in Washington who have handed themselves a car business to play with, to build little green mobiles that will not attract a buyer.   I laugh every time I read a statement by one of the big city rags that they built cars "no one wanted too buy"  What a crock.  Have they driven the highways of this country?   Nothing but pickups and SUV's going here and there.   Looks like plenty of american's bought them.  

So, with no marketing other than a government type add for public service,, and if  they dont make, market, and sell a vehicle at an affordable competitive price, we the taxpayers will forever prop up these worthless companies at what ever cost as we are now the majority owners.   Central planning in the old Soviet Union built wonderful cars!!  Just ask the Politburo boys who were in charge.  Gotta trust them comrades!

Redd, now we have the government to create jobs. But government jobs do not produce anything and certainly do not build wealth unless you are a politician. What happens when you run out of rich people to tax? Who pays for the entitlements then? I guess we don't worry about that until the bill is due and socialism is firmly in place as you pointed out. The problem with progressive taxes is that you don't mind tax increases when you don't pay much and get more handouts in return. Penalizing the productive and rewarding the unproductive will eventually be the demise of the US. Government motors will be a drain on the taxpayers as long as it's doors are open. I only hope they get so small that it won't cost so much. Who's going to buy their junk? Next thing the idiot in the white house will do will be to add  a tax credit for buying  GM cars to increase their sales. Subsidize the cost of making the car by the taxpayers and then subsidize the purchase of the car by the taxpayers. Just wait and see. It's the only way anybody that's not a union hack will buy one.

Taxpayer, note I said I think this is what will happen, not that it's what I want to happen.  Much of my concern comes from seeing the bite consumer spending is taking.  We lost our credit spending.  We're losing jobs to the tune of a half million a month.  The unions are dying putting downward pressure on wages.  I've seen prices jump to recoup lost sales.  Banks and credit card companies are looking at eating away at the income of responisbile borrowers with annual fees and increased service charges.  It just isn't a recepie that'll convince investors that they'll generate enough sales to make back any sizable investment.

The other problem is I don't completely buy the libertarian arguement that government CAN not run a successful business endevour.  I beleive as it stands it WILL not (largely due to republican pressure to just pass the buck than make a go of it and democrats unwilling to clean up thier own house), but that can change with the right motivation.  Having the need to make GM its own profitable cost centre before we run out of wealth to tax would be good incentive to keep managerial overhead to a minimum and mandate increaced effeincy, maybe use contacts to cut out a few middle men jacking up costs, and other things that could turn GM around.  Not that all that couldn't be done privately, but no one seems to be standing up to try.

That's where Obama gets his support.  We gave businesses money to keep the business going so we could keep out jobs.  It failed.  They want to take out money and .... well ... we're not sure.  You will no doubt assume that it'll be properly invested in something that'll create jobs, but the lack of specifics gives people like me doubts,  so they vote for the guy keeping food on their table.  I;m not saying it's right or will work, but do you really expect people to vote against their immediate best interests?

This ALL STARTED WITH BUSH AND WAS DROPPED IN OBAMAS LAP. CHECK YOUR FATCS ON IT TO THE ONE WHO GAVE THEM MONEY 1ST!!!!!

I AM SURE THEY WILL BLAME SOMEONE ELSE FOR BLACKS IN THIS COUNTRY CAN DO NOT WRONG.

LIKE I SAID THEY WILL BLAME SOMEONE ELSE, JUST LOOK AT THE KEVIN REMARK.

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