Is economic recovery in jeopardy? - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Is economic recovery in jeopardy?

Posted May 14 2009, 10:18 AM by Andrew Rosenbaum
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What happened to our economic recovery? Recovery was supposed to be right around the corner, right?

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner keep telling us that things will definitely get better soon -- the Fed says growth should start in the third quarter of this year.

But the most important indicators of that recovery are going in the wrong direction. Retail sales are down. The housing market is stagnant. Mortgage rates have moved higher.

Where are those "green shoots" of recovery that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is always talking about? Have they gone brown?

That phrase about "green shoots" actually comes from Bernanke's March 15 interview on "60 Minutes."

And since that interview, the phrase has been picked up by economists and analysts all over the world. (Try a search on the term and see how many references you get.) 

But today, the green shoots aren't flourishing anymore, and it’s looking like the recovery may genuinely be in danger.

  • Retail sales dropped 0.4% in April, according to a Commerce Department report.  They had been up about 1% in January and in February, and that was one of those green shoots that everyone was talking about.
  • Home foreclosures were up 32% in April from the same month in 2008. This has placed a glut of houses on the market, keeping home prices down. The Case-Shiller Index of housing prices in 20 cities showed an 18.6% drop in February from the same month in the previous year.
  • Consumer sentiment is still close to record lows. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is still 33% below pre-recession levels. "Consumers' expectations for their financial situation are dismal," warned Richard Curtin, the survey's director.
  • Mortgage rates have gone back up over 5%. The number of mortgage applications is decreasing.  

So is a recovery in jeopardy? The outlook is grim, but it’s not without hope. The cost of borrowing money has gone down and banks are trying, although without much success, to lend more.

After the stress tests, fears for the future of the nation's banks have eased. There is little danger of another huge financial disaster sending the stock market through the floor and causing the international credit system to freeze up as it did in 2008.

But we probably shouldn't expect recovery to be just around the bend. There are a few green shoots, but they ain't poppin' out all over. 

You might want to keep an eye out for them after the summer.

Comments

 

How in the world are you going to blame Obama for this mess.  He is doing everything he can.  But, you can´t fix 8 years of greed and overspeculation in half a year its going to take time.  Just look at the execs at AIG trying to give themselves over 150 million in bonuses.  America has turned into a culture of greed and free handouts and this crisis is giving America a much needed reality check.

Obviously, most of the commenters don't follow the economics or the stock market, so they talk about thing they comfrotable talking about - politics. Luckily, no prior knowledge is required to discuss politicis.

It is not president who approves the budget - it is Congress. It is not the president who sets monetary policy  - it is FED. Though, the president does have a say in what Treasury is doing. And the fact that Treasury is going down the same path, is Obama's fault.

The author goal is to discuss what is the stock market is going to do in the near future. Nobody knows, for sure, this is why he cannot say what is going to happen. But he can warn you about the gren shoots wiling, so that you don't put your money in the market right now and loose another 20-30%.

This is becoming a welfare state why not just jion them quit our jobs and let Obama print money and take care of us

Deal with it people. The "NEW WORLD ORDER" is right at your doorstep. Please, for the love of God Almighty, whatever you do "DON'T OPEN THE DOOR"!!!!

Truely like hearding sheep, although it is sad it is comical to watch this goon piss on himself and work to destroy the country...we are nearly socialist as it stands...also I am tired of hearing that Bush did all of this - we knew that was coming so get off it and take some responsibility spend a few more trillion dollars while you are at it. 3 + years from now it will be amazing what we can look back on and say that sounded so good and the Messiah said it would happen...you fricken idiots.

I see some really ignorant comments here - and where else do they generally originate, but from the conservative propaganda spreaders: comparing pot with poppies and cocaine? Who else but a religious zealot would think so narrow-mindedly?!! (for the grease of god?) Cradle-to-grave policies? (william!) comparing it to the USSR??? Gimme a break! They did little for their people; even less than our gov't does for us. Where's the universal health care that works so much better than our broken system that leaves 50million without medical care? Don't gimme that garbage that you have to wait 6 months or a year to get treated in France/Canada - up to 50 million of us have waited as long as 20 years or more to be treated for our medical conditions, dipwad! Don't tell me how they come to the US for the BEST treatment! Of course they do! We do have the best medical treatment in the world - the trouble is it's only available to a select few who can afford it!!  Look at the distorted, near-criminal distriubution of wealth in the US, big thanks to the reagan-bush tax cuts for the wealthy and legislation encouraging corporate monopolies, particularly in the media where jokes of true journalism flourish under the name of Faux News where most of you simple-minded bozos get your talking points. Try some US history courses in college where you might learn that every time the corporate world got the upper hand in dictating gov't policy we ended up in a recession/depression(if you can pay attention without sean ins-hannity or rushian limbo telling you how to think). Truth is, the only time we ever enjoyed sustained prosperity was from the late 40s through the early 70s when Rooseveltian New Deal policies were the foundation of our economic system. Unless you have a strong middle (working) class with jobs/benefits packages that protect those in the vulnerable sector and give them the purchasing power to drive the economy (creating demand for the supply-side of the equation) you flounder; like we're doing now. Thanks to ronnie raygun cutting taxes and shredding anti-trust legislation, daddy bush cutting taxes, billybob clinton kicking the door open for mass exodus of US jobs worldwide (nafta-wto) and the absolute plundering  of idiot-son bushman-junior, cutting taxes again and again for the wealthy and wasting trillions on foolish, useless and pointless wars; we are floundering again. Educate yourselves beyond the superficial news sound bytes of the US mainstream media (where I worked for several years) and discover what's really being done behind our backs and promoted by wealthy puppets (beck, limbaugh, hannity, o-reilly, etc.) of the neocon world.

This bad economy was triggered by the $4.00 a gallon gas a while back. What has kept it down and crushed the auto industry is the emergence of so many longer term loans on auto financing. In the past, car loans were 3 or 4 years and most people could trade in after that time. With loans at 6 to 8 years now, most people were still upside down and couldn't trade in and that lowered sales of new cars and put additional downward pressure on trade in value at the same time so people have had to stay in their current cars and not buy new yet. With such a glut of good used cars out there it is even more tough to sell new cars.

This stock market rally will conclude in September.  The major indexes, at that time,may be the highest for another decade.  Expect 2010 to be a very grim year for the stock market and the economy.

$1.8 trillion of toxic assets remains in the US financial system.  Millions of Alt-A mortgages are set to reset at higher interest rates from the 2nd half of 2009 through 2011.  The consumer is tightening the purse strings.  Commercial real estate is imploding and it will get worse before it gets better.

It will take another 10 years to get out of this mess.  The more the government interferes the longer it will take.

IMPEACH OBAMA NOW!

Hey Ted,

Do the math. 700 billion dollars divided amoungst 190 million tax payers is 3,684.00 per tax payer. Would that have been enough to spur recovery?

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