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AT&T needs Apple, but does Apple need AT&T?

Posted Apr 15 2009, 05:18 PM by James Dlugosch
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This post comes from partner site InvestorPlace.com.

The chief of AT&T (T) is dying to hold on to its exclusive iPhone deal with Apple (AAPL), which expires next year. And I can't blame him.

But it might not be a great deal for Apple.

I mean, Apple's a great company. It's one of those absolute must-own stocks that should be in every investor's portfolio. In fact, back in March I suggested that, rain or shine, Apple (AAPL) was one of the rare companies that could perform well irrespective of economic conditions. (Get four more recession-proof stocks here.)

How could you not own the stock -- and how could AT&T not want to keep playing? The iPhone is a perfect example of what Apple has done year after year -- innovate, dominate and grow the business. You could argue that it's everything that the "big T" isn't.

That's why Apple's smartest move may be to spread the iPhone wealth.

In bringing the amazingly successful iPhone to market, the Apple signed an exclusive deal with AT&T. That may have made sense in the short term because Apple had no idea how its product would be received by customers, and it was entering a new field.

But now that the iPhone is the hottest thing since, well, the iPod, an exclusive contract may or may not make sense for AAPL.

AAPL, at the very least, should milk negotiations with AT&T for all it's worth -- they're in the cat bird seat. AT&T needs AAPL a whole lot more than AAPL needs AT&T.

Despite comments suggesting that the company is happy with the current arrangement, my bet is that behind the scenes AAPL is laughing all the way to the bank. (Apple's hot -- who's not? Find out here.)

Yes, Apple's stock has suffered over the past year, but it's bouncing up now. And the iPhone craze is so hot, it's creating its own mini-boom rush among programmers as well as users. Applications for the iPhone are the hot thing at the moment.

Have you ever heard people this excited about a phone?

If AAPL is not pleased with what AT&T's offer, you can bet that other carriers are chomping at the bit to get hold of this phenomenal product. AT&T, meanwhile, can't afford to lose Apple.

So I'd buy Apple right now, while they're off. I see shares hitting $200 before touching $100 again. And if I owned AT&T, I'd be browsing on my iPhone for news of a new deal every chance I got. It's going nowhere without the iPhone.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

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Comments

 

I would LOVE it if Apple included other carriers for the iPhone.  The only reason why I haven't gotten one yet is because AT&T's plans are ridiculously expensive, and I'm getting a way better deal for all the texting, data, and phone calls elsewhere.

James, calling any stock a "must-own" is incredibly damaging to your credibility as an investor.  That is the sort of silly way of thinking that can get a lot of people in trouble very quickly.  The company's price/book for AAPL is already stratospheric and their growth is dependent on the health of Steve Jobs along with people's continued spending on what are conspicuous luxury items in a bad economy.  

ATT has definitely received a boost from the iphone, but if I understand this correctly the only place for AAPL to go would be Tmobile due to hardware compatibility requirements and their coverage is not as good as ATT's.  Plus, T-mobile already sells the Google phone, which I see as being a very strong competitor.  It's apps are all open source (AAPL keeps a lot of the best tech for themselves) and their plans are cheaper.

I think it would be VERY smart for Apple to ditch AT&T.  The main reason I do not have an iPhone is I do NOT want AT&T service.  Sales of the iPhone would go through the roof if MULTIPLE networks were able to carry it.  Might not be the best plan for the carriers, but it would be for Apple and the consumers!

I think it would be VERY smart for Apple to ditch AT&T.  The main reason I do not have an iPhone is I do NOT want AT&T service. I agree  RT AT&T SUCKS!!!! And i like the phone, it has alot of cool specs but I cannot go back to AT&T...I wish verizon had it....=(

The iPhone is already on multiple networks around the world.

Verizon can't get the (current) iPhone becuase it's GSM--I can't see Apple making the iPhone non-GSM and trashing the rest of the world's network compatibility.  

If you really want an iPhone on T Mobile--buy one--all it takes is you buying the International version of the phone direct from Apple, and getting it activated.  No messy jail breaking required...  Of course, that phone does cost $1000---but who can put a price on simultaneously bashing AT&T and being cool all at once???

Mr. Dlugosch enthusiasm on AAPL stock exemplified the "irrational exuberant" that exist during the internet bubble.  Sensible investing is apparently not in Mr. Dlugosh vocabulary even in the current recession.

I wonder if his enthusiasm also spilled over and contributed to the housing market bubble as well!?

On a side note, to fix the current recession, I proposed the government takes the billions from the bailfund and distributed to all current taxpayers in lieu of bailing out corporations.  The distributed fund will push start the economy much faster than the corporations, who are hoarding the bailout fund for their own outrageous salaries and lavish company gatherings.

They definitely don't need ATT.  There are alot of pwned iphones out there used with other carriers.  My friends friend friend hem... paid full price for the iphone and is using it with T-mobile -- and alot of poeple would go through loop holes to try to be able to use the iphone.  You don't see customers fighting their way and hacking into ATT and wanting to use their services, so obviously, the iPhone is a wanted commodity regardless the carrier, and ATT is not regardless of the phone.

apple products stand alone. jobs' health is irrelevant to the iphone. apple can easliy make (design, it's madeinchina) phones for any market or carrier. they already do. hardware just gets smaller and better. software is provided by the community free or pay. they have it made. sure there are competitors. i have a blackberry strom from verizon because i won't deal with att. it's a fine device but way slim on apps (esp. free). also it doesn't play nice on the legal copy of vista (if ms vista was a car would you pursue the lemon law) on the bootcamp partition of my macbook. still apple quality and innovation (just wait til they put one of those micro video projectors inside) coupled with the more open software standards that puts control in the users hand (approaching a billion apps sold) and jobs has less and less meaning. in fact the stock has risen from its low of 78 to like 120 before and during his sabbatical. they have lots o cash 26b, suffer an avg. 30% profit margin, bought samsung's entire production of 8gb memory chips for the first half of year, and continue to gain market share despite the microsoft ads. they peaked at around 200 you won't see that soon but dropping below 100 doubtful. of course iphone adoption by enterprise is more likely with multiple carriers and only increases revenue. i agree with the blog title.

Great! Milk the negotiations. Who do you think will get the short end of the stick. The customers as rates go up. The rich gets richer.

I love my iPhone but AT&T's txt plans are a joke. Unlimited data for $30 and $20 for txt on top of that! Wait till the Palm Pre comes out, AT&T better change there tune.

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