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Fear of Obama drives gun stocks higher

Posted Feb 25 2009, 02:02 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Rising concern over increased regulation from the Obama White House has gun buffs stocking up on the latest tactical rifles and pistols. This helps the fortunes of gun makers Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and Ruger (RGR) as well as specialty retailer Cabela's (CAB), which specializes in firearms and hunting gear.

Ruger reported Tuesday that gun sales increased 81% in the fourth quarter on new products and "robust firearms demand." Its order backlog now stands at $48 million. Smith & Wesson plans to double revenue within the next three years and reported increased sales from "speculation on the outcome of the presidential election." Cabela's reported that same-store sales rose 2.2% over the holiday election season -- a time of great distress for other retailers.

With that kind of performance, it's not surprising investors are flocking to these names. Over the last week, while the S&P 500 is down 2%, Smith & Wesson is up 56%, Cabela's has gained 35%, and Rugers added 44%.

Based on my conversation with Wedbush Morgan analyst Rommel Dionisio, much of the sales increase has been in self-defense firearms like military-type semi-automatics or pistols. Sales of traditional bolt-action hunting rifles and shotguns remain steady. Cabela's spokesman Joe Arterburn notes that many of these customers are first-time buyers who "have never had a handgun in their home but believe now ... is a good time to buy them." In other words, people aren't looking to hunt deer; they're worried about other people.

The question, of course, is whether this performance will continue or will end up being a brief, post-election buying binge. According to the FBI, background checks on potential gun buyers increased 29% last month over the same period in 2007. Although Obama has always played down the gun rights issue, many seize on his off-the-cuff remarks last year that people "cling to guns and religion" during times of economic stress. For the record, he has tried to soothe jumpy nerves: "I believe in common sense gun safety law, and I believe in the second amendment. And so, lawful gun owners have nothing to fear."

Nevertheless, as the economic picture darkens, it's more than possible people will stop fearing our new president and start worrying about a Mad Max-like apocalyptic scenario. Just look the huge increase in the popularity of physical gold. Sales of the popular American Eagle gold coin are up four-fold while commodity investors are increasingly opting for physical delivery of gold bullion instead of settling futures contracts in cash. Bankers are reporting that more clients are hoarding gold in their vaults.

Sure, this is crazy. But remember that humans aren't rational and that fear is the strongest of all emotions. Forget traditional defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare. Go with guns and gold.

Update: Attorney General Eric Holder told reporters Wednesday that President Obama would like to "reinstitute the ban on the sale of assault weapons" that expired in 2004 under the Bush administration. Holder said the ban would not only be a "positive move" by the United States, but would help reduce the trafficking of guns to the drug cartels in Mexico. It looks like the gun boom is far from over. 

Image credit: jeroen020

Disclosure: The author does not own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned.

Anthony Mirhaydari is a contributor to the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.

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Comments

 

The economy is not in a crisis because of the Freddie Mac problem, but other issues.

Gas prices forced poor sales of automobiles, which also drove up the prices of everything else, food, clothing, etc.  Also, fees have gone up, schools want more money for bus gasoline.

Another issue is the credit crunch and lack of savings.  People lived also on credit cards and pay check to pay check and there is a day of reckoning, like when there is a recession and jobs are lost, pay is cut and people stop buying over night.

If the problem is that people buy houses and cars they can't afford then quit advertising "no credit, bad credit, noooo problem."  Quit offering appliances for "no money down and no interest."  

By the way, lenders have a fiduciary responsibility to NOT lend to people who cannot afford, to NOT falsify credit reports and should not resell mortgages, thinking that they are off the hook for a bad loan.

Ok, so lets get this straight. This problem that we are now in according to Ronnie was acknowledged back in 2001. Even with this knowledge we decided to fight a war and help rebuild another country. A war that is going to eventually cost us 3 trillion dollars, according to analyis. Didn't someone think to stand up and say hey why don't we use this money to try and fix our country before we take on others. I don't know who to blame, it really doesn't matter at this point, this is where we are at and we need to fix it if we are going to have America the way it was. So stop pointing fingers and giving blame. Somehow we are all responsible, lets figure out together how to fix our current circumstance. Then after that is resolve we can go back to the blame game.

Don't they teach English in your country KJARL?  It is "too ignorant."  Please go back to where you came from and you may return when you have learned to spell.  I am one of those that served in the military - retired AF, Desert Storm and I also have stocked up on the weapons that we will soon not be able to get.  I guess I am a redneck too then.

I am 62, a 25year military veteran and a believer in this great country, however, I too am scared and see this country turning into a socilalistic pit.  I bought my first hand gun a year ago and am considering the purchase of a second. Remember what happened to the Soviet Union after years of so called  Socialistic Reform.  As the Romans...they crumbled....

It is past time that we join and rearm our militias.  The socialist agenda of obama and those that feel "entitled" will destroy our country if we continue to do nothing to stop them.  Clearly, obama is the anti-christ (check your Websters) and like the pied piper he is leading us to a 3rd rate socialist state.

I encourage all Americans to arm themselves, join their local militia and fight the anti-christ!

What a stupid title for an article.  This has nothing to do with Obama.  With money being so scarce, I'm certainly NOT going to waste it on a weapon.  I have to spend my income on food and shelter.  

The mess that we are in is because of ALL OF US, not one person.  It's time we wake up and realize this, using our President as escape goat only furthers the problem with no personal responsibility..  " humans aren't rational and that fear is the strongest of all emotions"   nicely put...  I think someone else once said, "The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself!"

wake up everyone HR45 thats house resolution 45 from an il rep give the gov the right to come into your house to check your weapons, requires reg of all guns,  and req a license to own a gun. also makes it illegal to sell a gun to somone that does not have a license.

the last time and country that tried this was 1939, Germany

write to your reps in congress and urge a no vote on this bill before its to late

Most people know(or should know) that the real power to change things lie with the citizens of this country.  As long as we have and can keep all of our constitutional rights, that power will remain with the people.  The people just need to use the power we have.  The way things have gone and are going in Washington will soon convince people that the way our government currently operates is not working.  Changes is needed and will not come from the current administration.  There is too much pressure to keep things status quo in Washington.  Lincoln said it best, "government of the people, by the people, for the people", where did that disappear to?

If you want to be scared, look at a piece of legeslation recently entered in the US House of Representatives.  Look at HR-45.  A good reason to buy up weapons now.

Don't Forget the Ammo!  If you are buying a gun, get lots of ammo and seal it up.  Ammo will be the first thing they will restrict, tax or even ban.

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