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What Alcoa's moves really mean

Posted Jan 07 2009, 11:18 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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It would be hard to miss the headline that Alcoa (AA) is firing 15,000 people. The actions of big companies are probably a much better indicator for what is ahead for the economy than forecasts from business professors.

The fascinating and troubling aspect of the Alcoa cuts is that the company made $470 million in the last reported quarter and Wall Street estimates have it making a very modest amount of money this year. Dow Chemical (DOW), which recently let thousands of people go, also is a money maker. One of the most successful corporations in the U.S., IBM (IBM) is rumored to be a week away from cutting more than 10,000 people. IBM may have as good a balance sheet and earnings stream as any American public company.

Challenger, Gray reports that big companies had 166,348 layoffs in December, up 275% from a year earlier. A look at their reports for the first 11 months of the year shows that many cuts came at firms which were doing well, like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).

While it would be a mistake to take too much from CEO forecasts and predictions, obviously executives at companies which span almost every major industry are cutting costs and personnel. No one needs to show that it is a vicious circle for the broader economy. A man without a job is a man who spends nothing. The same is true of a business that folds.

Wall Street analysts are still posting earnings forecasts that show many large companies making a lot of money next year. Expectations are that IBM's earnings per share will rise from $8.71 in 2008 to $8.99 this year. If someone could make it through security at the company's headquarters and get the straight dope from the tech company's CEO Samuel J. Palmisano, he would certainly say that anyone who believes those forecasts belongs in a mental institution.

By most measures, the American economy lost between 2 million and 2.5 million jobs last year. As that number rises sharply this year, the IBMs cut as many people as the GMs. That says more about what the second half of the year looks like than any other set of numbers laying around.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Comments

 

While I do sympathize with several of the opinions posted here it seems that the real demon here is regularly overlooked.  The fact that everyone wants more, regardless of whether they are willing to work for it, continues to be at the heart of most of the problems facing America.  CEO's of publicly traded companies are over-compensated in today's culture because they continue to be the face on which hundreds of millions of investment dollars are placed daily.  They are beholden to an exponentially larger shareholder base who they report to and push-come-to-shove, shareholders want higher stock prices....they want higher dividends.  If it comes at the expense of some poor worker then you may want to consider that the next time you go asking your investment broker which stocks show promise for better growth.  What you want may come at someone else's expense; the only problem is no one likes it when the shoe is on the other foot.  I don't even want to get started on the whole UNION issue because it is and will continue to be the single largest problem facing domestic companies today.  The working conditions that were present during the Industrial Revolution and the need for a workplace with fair employment practices that have been pretty well remedied by OSHA and the EEOA.  The entire spirit of a union is one which says "we will band together to get what we want and if we don't get it, forget the company, we just won't work".  TAKE A LOOK AMERICA...it didn't work for the steel industry, it has crippled the auto manufacturers and is ruining markets all over the U.S.

For those of you who think that O'Bama is simply going to remedy this situation by waving a majic wand and chanting "O Yes We Can" you are sorely O'mistaken!!  Tighten your belts....we have several years of lean harvest ahead.

From another Alcoan poised to lose his job  - I don't think the communities can begin to understand how devastating the loss of jobs at alcoa will be. Over the years I have had "I hate my job" times when I have searched in vain to find a paycheck anywhere close to my Alcoa paycheck. We make good money, it comes out in blood sweat and tears and sometimes as much as 18 hr days on concrete floors but it is good pay. This money goes out to the community stores. When I think of what it means to all the of us.....I shake in my boots.  

When are you union employees going to wake up and smell the coffee?  You guys/gals had your day, but now the economy can't afford you any more.  Pure and simple.  Alcoa is no different than the auto companies going through the same thing.  You cry because the results of your union greed after all of these years is catching up to you.  You now expect your sorry asses to be covered under lucrative union contracts and make the rest of us pay for it in the long run.  It's because of your greed that drives companies to other countries.  Don't blame it completely on NAFTA and CAFTA.  You started it, so stop crying now that the economy you helped create is now molding your future.  What did you expect?   An endless pot of gold and benefits?  Guess what....here is the end of the rainbow.  Surprised it's an outhouse?

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