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What Alcoa's moves really mean

Posted Jan 07 2009, 11:18 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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It would be hard to miss the headline that Alcoa (AA) is firing 15,000 people. The actions of big companies are probably a much better indicator for what is ahead for the economy than forecasts from business professors.

The fascinating and troubling aspect of the Alcoa cuts is that the company made $470 million in the last reported quarter and Wall Street estimates have it making a very modest amount of money this year. Dow Chemical (DOW), which recently let thousands of people go, also is a money maker. One of the most successful corporations in the U.S., IBM (IBM) is rumored to be a week away from cutting more than 10,000 people. IBM may have as good a balance sheet and earnings stream as any American public company.

Challenger, Gray reports that big companies had 166,348 layoffs in December, up 275% from a year earlier. A look at their reports for the first 11 months of the year shows that many cuts came at firms which were doing well, like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).

While it would be a mistake to take too much from CEO forecasts and predictions, obviously executives at companies which span almost every major industry are cutting costs and personnel. No one needs to show that it is a vicious circle for the broader economy. A man without a job is a man who spends nothing. The same is true of a business that folds.

Wall Street analysts are still posting earnings forecasts that show many large companies making a lot of money next year. Expectations are that IBM's earnings per share will rise from $8.71 in 2008 to $8.99 this year. If someone could make it through security at the company's headquarters and get the straight dope from the tech company's CEO Samuel J. Palmisano, he would certainly say that anyone who believes those forecasts belongs in a mental institution.

By most measures, the American economy lost between 2 million and 2.5 million jobs last year. As that number rises sharply this year, the IBMs cut as many people as the GMs. That says more about what the second half of the year looks like than any other set of numbers laying around.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Comments

 

Big companies such as IBM, Alcoa, H-P, should be ashamed of firing so many people and adding to the unemployment numbers while they are making millions, and the executives still receiving their big bonuses and perks for basically nothing. I couldn't sleep if I did that. They should make every effort to keep their people working while cutting frivilous expenses such as parties, first class flying here and there to take a customer out to dinner, etc. Give the economy a chance to bounce back. Let your employees keep paying taxes, and share, your wealth and good fortune.

I agree with hurtin bad.  My husband works for the Alcoa company and just found out yesterday that they will be "letting more people go" --  Union workers that is.... They found out that the supervisors that were supposed to be "let go" are staying, so they're letting more union employees go.  Isn't that the way big company is?  The little guy doesn't matter.......

HURTIN BAD SAYS IT ALL PLAIN AND CLEAR. HE IS 100% CORRECT.

Making profit = bad, no one should be able to make a profit in America.  All of the small businesses should also be forced to give up their profits.  SPREAD THE WEALTH. I love russia.

Why is it that people cant understand that companies layoff employees when there is no work for them.  If they all did what GM did (Pay employees to sit and wait for work) they would wind up like GM!  Would you hire a person to do your grass cutting in the middle of winter because he has no other Job??

Well said TBONE. I would like to add...blame the government...ask them for your bailout. Ask them to help small business. Ask them to help the consumer=customer to small business= customer to big business. With out all the small business...you have no big business. These big companys did what they must to do survive. It's a trickle down effect. If all the small businesses where helped, they would have money to support the big business. More small business , use more office supplies== business for HP. More PC's sold to small business==buisness for IBM.

More machine shops , machining parts from metal==business for Alcoa...or better yet...put money in the consumers pocket and tax him less so he can spend more=need for jobs to make products. See how it is all connected??

My husband and I met at work at Alcoa, ten years later he still works there, but it has been bought out by SAPA. Hopefully SAPA is not going to do this to its employees. It breaks my heart because these are the real people, we are the ones working for a living scraping by during the good times but still loving our lives. I wish it would all get better, but greed and all of the rest of the crap has taken over....

i work for alcoa as well, and we're all wondering what tomorrow and the day after will hold for us.  But what the author of this article didn't note or grasp is that alcoa is in a bad financial situation.  The LME for aluminum has lost more than half of its value since july, so all of our facilities that were making huge profits in july (thus that 470 million quarter) have been losing huge amounts of money when the LME fell to around $1400 a ton.  until metal prices rebound or at least move up to a level we can break even, layoffs will continue.  And i think the 4th quarter earnings will give an example of how quick things went bad and only touch the iceberg on how bad they can go.  Divesting our packaging division last year has made us a metals company again, and we're feeling the full effects of it right now whereas keeping the packaging, we might have buffered ourselves a little more.

Just because things were good in the last reported quarter, that definitely doesn't mean things will be good this reported quarter.  and to stay afloat, these layoffs need to happen.  I just hope i'm not one of them.

I currently work for alcoa and have for 11 yrs, one that good ole uncle al worries about is the bottom line.  As they continue to break records from previous quarters we as workers have been instructed that all domestic spending would stop immediately, but spending would increase internationally name the facility purchased in Russia.  Although, we stood firmly against this giant at the Cleveland works facililty,  they paid bosses from within the facility and other facilities upwards 99.00's per hour just to teach the unoin workers that alcoa will spend millions just to keep the workers who dare stand against them a valuable and undeniable lesson American Workers carry no significance when it comes to the bottom line.  So until someone corrects the current NAFTA agreement and we the people have some backing things will and are going to continue to get worse.  

NAFTA   WHAT A JOKE ///

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