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Why earnings are about to get worse

Posted Dec 30 2008, 03:04 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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There's lots of potential for continued broad market weakness as Wall Street analysts slash overly optimistic earnings forecasts in line with deteriorating economic conditions. These new estimates will sour sentiment, inflate P/E multiples, and generally make life difficult for those trying to move the market up out of its current trading range.

Expect a January showdown as traders, money managers, and consultants return from restive holidays. The bulls will wield New Year optimism, government intervention, and unprecedented monetary policy support. The bears will use falling earnings along with rising geopolitical tension, a bleak employment outlook, crumbling home prices, and bankruptcies.

How serious will these earnings cuts be? According to a survey of estimates by Thomson Reuters, the current estimated fourth-quarter earnings growth rate on the S&P 500 has just gone into negative territory at -0.9%, down from nearly 65% in August and 0.5% just last week. You can see this progression in the chart below. A majority of the decline is tired to downward estimate revisions in the financial, materials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors.

What's worrying is that despite the reductions taken so far, it appears more is on the way. Of the 10 sectors that comprise the index, the financials are still expected to be the largest contributor to fourth-quarter earnings growth. Currently, analysts are looking for the financials to put up share-weighted earnings of $5.3 billion versus a $16.1 billion loss last year. Without this, quarterly earnings for the S&P 500 would fall to -14.2%.

Within this sector, investment banks and brokerage houses are the largest contributors. Even with the myriad of Federal Reserve lending facilities that have allowed investment banks to offload decaying debt and derivative products in exchange for loans or Treasury instruments, it's hard to see a turnaround of that magnitude happening so quickly. If it did, this would be the first quarter of profitability since the middle of 2007.

Minimizing losses through government support and cost cutting is one thing, but the revenue picture has been annihilated for these guys. Just last month JPMorgan Chase closed its proprietary trading desk, greatly reducing its ability to directly profit from short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and commodities. A record number of M&A deals were canceled this year, bringing a sharp decline in lucrative advisory fees for traditional investment bankers. And of course, the asset management business has been crushed.

As you can see, just by isolating the financials sector a strong case can be made for double-digit earnings declines for the entire S&P 500 heading into 2009. On top of this, you don't need to do much mental jujitsu to make bearish cases for many of the other sectors as U.S. economic output falls off a cliff: Merrill Lynch economists are looking for real fourth-quarter GDP to clock in at -6.7%, down from a -0.5% decline in the third quarter. It doesn't get much better looking out into 2009, where the economy is expected to shrink another 3.1%.

Any way you look at it, earnings estimates still have a long way to fall as the fixed asset deleveraging ravages profit margins and analysts stay behind the curve. I would be highly skeptical of any flashy bear-market rally kicking off 2009.

Image credit: Thomson Reuters

Disclosure: The author does not own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned.

Anthony Mirhaydari is a contributor to the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.

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Comments

 

Thank you for the clean and clear fundamental analysis of the market.  I read and am amazed at the simple minded talking heads that are ignoring the obvious and capializing on the federal funds.

I had at one ponit felt that by reducing the present value of homes by perhaps 20%, refinance the morgage at 25% of the owners income and have the federal goverment back these loans (I fear now it is getting to late to stop the spiral).  There by establising some plateau to target in the near future for home values.  At present there is no long term value for a home.  Giving the homes some value and the home owner some capital to purchase with.  As so many of our great minds have forgotten, two thirds of the US economy is powered by us lowly slaves, nothing is generated from corporations. Banks will never loan a dime until there is a plateau from which they can feed off of.

There is no hope for the people.  There is no help unless you have a contact who can get you some of that 8 trililion to save your home and bussiness.  At least for now they are protected.

Yes, the end is near; lets all throw in the towel and get on the cloud to redemption or Nirvana--the world as we know is about to end --lets drop the big one now--you should now who! Really, my folks lived  in worse and eventually prospered--quit whining and do something positive--

Crumbling homes prices was a gimmie and very welcomed. It is obnoxious to continually hear about "falling home prices"...what MANY seem to overlook or do not want to broadcast is that homes in many areas (I live in Southern California) went up 400% from 1995 to 2007. The "cheap" homes were 1600 sq ft typically needing $150K of work just to become livable and in 2007 you needed to make $249K a year to qualify for a loan for one of these beauties. The rise in prices was so manipulated by greed and speculation that a two year old could see it. Fliiping houses was a hobby for MANY. So when people talk about "saving" home prices...I don't think they have a clue.  

I agree with Dan Hutchison! Enough complaining already!  It is what it is and America must move foward.  America needs a good cleanse and when we  resolve the many faults we have created, those that prepared, whether it be personally or corporate America, will enjoy the upside. So what, we have to work hard for our money now! Big deal, work hard and earn your keep!  

no consumers, no jobs, without jobs, we can not  spend money, without spending no need for new business! It's time people see the truth, I know, be a part of the solution, volunteer your time, be positive and be compassionate and loving to ALL.  This mean's the HOMELESS, don't turn you head and look away as if you do not see them suffering, just by saying hello, will make them feel better.  Guide them to the local shelters and food banks, Just don't ignore, that the USA has a PROBLEM!!!

It took over five years for this to occur after the Laws to prevent another 1907 Depression and 1929-1939 Great Depression were removed.  This allowed the formation of organizations (corporations, companies, associations) that benefit (Trillions USDs) from this and will prevent any attempts to place those safeties (Laws) back into place.

This is going to get worse, this year, 2009, because everyone is attempting to treat the symptoms and not the disease.  This will repeat for decades if something is not done properly to treat the disease not the symptoms.

There are also other situations like the example above that took over 30 years to accumulate and we are now seeing the symptoms.  These were from Agreements that Corporations, Companies, etc. Lobbied for and the Politicians passed.  And the bottomline were used to "balance the books" for major Corporations, Companies, etc. much to the disadvantage of US Citizens.

I thought businesses should be more concerned about cash flow from operations and not necessarily earnings.  If the last 12 months have taught us anything it is that earnings are an accounting convention and may not truly reflect economic reality.  Don't get me wrong the economic scenario is not sanguine.  But that said, shouldn't we look at cash flow and not earnings projections?  The cash flow situation could be worse (or better) and this is really the metric investors should be concerned about.  All I know is that net income + non-cash charges +/- changes in working capital = cash flow from operations.  This metric more fully reflects company's earning power.

funny that none of the links for recommendations work

I AGREE WITH THE PERSON WHO COMMENTED ON THE QUICK INCREASE IN HOME VALUES. WHEN PEOPLE STOPPED BUYING HOMES AS A PLACE FOR THE FAMILY TO GATHER AND STARTED BUYING THEM AS A QUICK WAY TO MAKE A BUCK, WAS WHEN IT ALL GOT OUT OF HAND.  MOST PEOPLE COULD TELL THAT THE HOUSE PRICES WERE GOING INTO ORBIT AND WHEN THE COST OF A HOME FAR EXCEEDS THE SALARY INCREASES IN THE U.S. WE ALL KNEW WE WOULD BE IN TROUBLE.  NOW ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS BUCKLE DOWN AND LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS.  WHAT A CONCEPT!  SINCE WHEN DOES ANYONE BUY SOMETHING ONLY WHEN THEY HAVE THE MONEY TO PURCHASE IT?  ABRAHAM LINCOLN SAID "NEITHER A BORROWER NOR A LENDER BE" BECAUSE HE HAD A DISTRUST OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY.  

Not regulated greed may be the source, who is the money borrowed from ultimately? where is the source for that? who regulates it? who overseas regulators? money has not disappeared,just moves (unless value was just virtually created).The problem is here and it has to be recognized, analyzed and actions have to be taken. there are many thinking people who can contribute, how can Jobs be created? More Jobs, more spending, more work. more Jobs... How can that be stimulated without isolating ourselves?

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