Why earnings are about to get worse
Posted
Dec 30 2008, 03:04 PM
by
Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:
There's lots of potential for continued broad market weakness as Wall Street analysts slash overly optimistic earnings forecasts in line with deteriorating economic conditions. These new estimates will sour sentiment, inflate P/E multiples, and generally make life difficult for those trying to move the market up out of its current trading range.
Expect a January showdown as traders, money managers, and consultants return from restive holidays. The bulls will wield New Year optimism, government intervention, and unprecedented monetary policy support. The bears will use falling earnings along with rising geopolitical tension, a bleak employment outlook, crumbling home prices, and bankruptcies.
How serious will these earnings cuts be? According to a survey of estimates by Thomson Reuters, the current estimated fourth-quarter earnings growth rate on the S&P 500 has just gone into negative territory at -0.9%, down from nearly 65% in August and 0.5% just last week. You can see this progression in the chart below. A majority of the decline is tired to downward estimate revisions in the financial, materials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors.

What's worrying is that despite the reductions taken so far, it appears more is on the way. Of the 10 sectors that comprise the index, the financials are still expected to be the largest contributor to fourth-quarter earnings growth. Currently, analysts are looking for the financials to put up share-weighted earnings of $5.3 billion versus a $16.1 billion loss last year. Without this, quarterly earnings for the S&P 500 would fall to -14.2%.
Within this sector, investment banks and brokerage houses are the largest contributors. Even with the myriad of Federal Reserve lending facilities that have allowed investment banks to offload decaying debt and derivative products in exchange for loans or Treasury instruments, it's hard to see a turnaround of that magnitude happening so quickly. If it did, this would be the first quarter of profitability since the middle of 2007.
Minimizing losses through government support and cost cutting is one thing, but the revenue picture has been annihilated for these guys. Just last month JPMorgan Chase closed its proprietary trading desk, greatly reducing its ability to directly profit from short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and commodities. A record number of M&A deals were canceled this year, bringing a sharp decline in lucrative advisory fees for traditional investment bankers. And of course, the asset management business has been crushed.
As you can see, just by isolating the financials sector a strong case can be made for double-digit earnings declines for the entire S&P 500 heading into 2009. On top of this, you don't need to do much mental jujitsu to make bearish cases for many of the other sectors as U.S. economic output falls off a cliff: Merrill Lynch economists are looking for real fourth-quarter GDP to clock in at -6.7%, down from a -0.5% decline in the third quarter. It doesn't get much better looking out into 2009, where the economy is expected to shrink another 3.1%.
Any way you look at it, earnings estimates still have a long way to fall as the fixed asset deleveraging ravages profit margins and analysts stay behind the curve. I would be highly skeptical of any flashy bear-market rally kicking off 2009.
Image credit: Thomson Reuters
Disclosure: The author does not own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned.
Anthony Mirhaydari is a contributor to the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.
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