Apple losing its shine? Oh, please.
Posted
Dec 17 2008, 02:06 PM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:

I'm tired of all this drama around Steve Jobs disappearing from the keynote speaker slot at the annual Macworld conference next month. Apple's pulling out of Macworld altogether after this one, and the obituaries are starting to roll in. Consider:
"Apple losing its luster?" -- Minyanville
"One scare too many" -- Oppenheimer analyst note
"Without Macworld, how will Apple create the buzz?" -- Cnet
Oh, please. This is a trade show, for crying out loud. And to splash cold water on the conspiracy theories popping up about Apple's dark and stormy moves, let me offer a three-pronged theory of my own:
1. Apple won't have any big news at Macworld. In this economy, why launch a major product when no one has money to buy?
2. Apple is arrogantly writing off Macworld (and other trade shows), knowing full well it can gin up buzz, press, publicity and sales without anyone else's help.
3. With no big products to talk about, an economy in the crapper and a trade show that doesn't deliver a return on investment, Apple is getting out.
Jobs had two choices. Pump up his Macworld appearance as the "last one ever" or just bail and spend his time on more important things. He made the smarter decision, and just has to sit through a few weeks of oh-my-God-he's-too-sick-to-even-speak speculation.
That's not to dismiss concerns about his health, however. Jobs has said that he's fine, but his guant appearances last year have fueled concerns that he may step down from the company at some point. Investors should be concerned, but I think Apple could survive just fine without Jobs at the helm.
There is a lot to talk about with Apple. What's in the product pipeline? Will its retail stores perform this quarter? Can it keep the iPhone momentum going? Will it be able to recover margins? Where does the iPod go from here?
All valid issues. But quitting a trade show? Big deal.
Related reading:
Apple finally takes a big fall
An Apple analyst finally puts away his pom-poms
Analysts see big Apple sales so far
Is it fair to analyze Steve Jobs' appearance?
Apple can't escape health drama