Surprise! We're officially in a recession - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

Surprise! We're officially in a recession

Posted Dec 01 2008, 12:44 PM by Kim Peterson
Rating:
Filed under: ,

In case anyone wasn't sure, we are now officially in a recession. That's according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which met on Friday and determined that the current recession began in December 2007.

It may have not seemed like a recession at the time. That's because the U.S. hit a peak in economic activity during that month. Employment was at a high, and other indicators, such as manufacturing and production, were also approaching peaks. But the long slide down began then.

It's pretty clear now that we are in a recession, but experts weren't sure exactly when it began. The bureau's report gives a definite starting point. And signs point to a more severe recession in the Midwest -- in fact, it could be as bad as the recession of 1981-1982, according to professors at Creighton University.

On top of all this is word that U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace in 26 years.

Investors are reacting to recession concerns by flocking to treasuries, but now treasury yields are so low that fund managers "have little chance of offering anything but subpar returns in 2009," according to Bloomberg.

Airlines are reacting to the recession by cutting capacity. Airlines have already cut seating capacity by 10%, and may cut another 8%, according to Blomberg.

So when will the recession end? We won't know until we're long out of it. Economists will have to analyze several months of indicators to pinpoint the moment when the economy started expanding again. 

In fact, we could already be out of the recession now. The typical postwar recession has lasted 10 months. But it sure doesn't feel like the economy is in expansion mode these days.

Comments

 

I, a person with excellent credit, cannot refiance to a better rate because my jeko neighbors foreclosed, destroying my house value.  Their irresponsibility is hurting me!  I will & can make my payments, but the banks do not care.  They are shooting themselves in the foot by losing a good customes who has never been late on any payment to home or credit.

Any o you who think that George W. is uniltaterally responsible for the mess we're in please check your brains at the door. Any of you who think Obama is the answer to our prayers and the second coming of Christ Almighty, don't bother, you don't have a brain.

There is only ONE politician who has the answers for our current and future economic woes and the majority of you ridiculed him in the last election. Ron Paul has warned congress for years that we were headed for trouble, but no wanted to hear him. Join the Revolution! Only by changing the way our government is being run can we take back a Government for the people and by the people. Imstead of for the Elite and by the elite.

About the Campaign For Liberty

Americans inherit from our ancestors a glorious tradition of freedom and resistance to oppression.  Our country has long been admired by the rest of the world for her great example of liberty and prosperity—a light shining in the darkness of tyranny.

But many Americans today are frustrated.  The political choices they are offered give them no real choice at all.  For all their talk of "change," neither major political party as presently constituted challenges the status quo in any serious way.  Neither treats the Constitution with anything but contempt.  Neither offers any kind of change in monetary policy.  Neither wants to make the reductions in government that our crushing debt burden demands.  Neither talks about bringing American troops home not just from Iraq but from around the world.  Our country is going bankrupt, and none of these sensible proposals are even on the table.

This destructive bipartisan consensus has suffocated American political life for many years.  Anyone who tries to ask fundamental questions instead of cosmetic ones is ridiculed or ignored.

That is why the Campaign for Liberty was established: to highlight the neglected but common-sense principles we champion and reinsert them into the American political conversation.

The U.S. Constitution is at the heart of what the Campaign for Liberty stands for, since the very least we can demand of our government is fidelity to its own governing document.  Claims that our Constitution was meant to be a "living document" that judges may interpret as they please are fraudulent, incompatible with republican government, and without foundation in the constitutional text or the thinking of the Framers.  Thomas Jefferson spoke of binding our rulers down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution, and we are proud to follow in his distinguished lineage.

With our Founding Fathers, we also believe in a noninterventionist foreign policy.  Inspired by the old Robert Taft wing of the Republican Party, we are convinced that the American people cannot remain free and prosperous with 700 military bases around the world, troops in 130 countries, and a steady diet of war propaganda.  Our military overstretch is undermining our national defense and bankrupting our country.

We believe that the free market, reviled by people who do not understand it, is the most just and humane economic system and the greatest engine of prosperity the world has ever known.

We believe with Ludwig von Mises, Henry Hazlitt, and F.A. Hayek that central banking distorts economic decisionmaking and misleads entrepreneurs into making unsound investments.  Hayek won the Nobel Prize for showing how central banks' interference with interest rates sets the stage for economic downturns.  And the central bank's ability to create money out of thin air transfers wealth from the most vulnerable to those with political pull, since it is the latter who receive the new money before the price increases it brings in its wake have yet occurred.  For economic and moral reasons, therefore, we join the great twentieth-century economists in opposing the Federal Reserve System, which has reduced the value of the dollar by 95 percent since it began in 1913.

We oppose the dehumanizing assumption that all issues that divide us must be settled at the federal level and forced on every American community, whether by activist judges, a power-hungry executive, or a meddling Congress.  We believe in the humane alternative of local self-government, as called for in our Constitution.

We oppose the transfer of American sovereignty to supranational organizations in which the American people possess no elected representatives.  Such compromises of our country's independence run counter to the principles of the American Revolution, which was fought on behalf of self-government and local control.  Most of these organizations have a terrible track record even on their own terms: how much poverty have the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund actually alleviated, for example?  The peoples of the world can interact with each other just fine in the absence of bureaucratic intermediaries that undermine their sovereignty.

We believe that freedom is an indivisible whole, and that it includes not only economic liberty but civil liberties and privacy rights as well, all of which are historic rights that our civilization has cherished from time immemorial.

Our stances on other issues can be deduced from these general principles.

Our country is ailing.  That is the bad news.  The good news is that the remedy is so simple and attractive: a return to the principles our Founders taught us.  Respect for the Constitution, the rule of law, individual liberty, sound money, and a noninterventionist foreign policy constitute the foundation of the Campaign for Liberty.

Will you join us?

I think the only way out is for a gov. backed loan as well. And if certain homeowners want to pay more..........fine, but that is the only way out. There is no industry left. Nothing out there to keep the money turning.  

What really pisses me of is the fact that everyone knows the real estate is a feast or famine industry and it always has been...........The government, states, cities and all the other business abroad price-fixed the people into debt. Everyone raised prices all at once, and many did this several times per year. No-one was crying then. The people never had a fighting chance.

Does anyone realize that the Saudi's are saying they want to cut production because they would like to see oil at $75 per barrell. They say that is a fair price for americans to pay. Then where in the hell were they when the price was $150. And why werent they saying.............Attention Americans, we feel  the fair price per barrell of oil should be $75 so we are going to drop the price so we dont zap your economy into a recession. This gas hike alone is the most single incident of price gouging and it gave every retailer a free price- hike ticket to use it themselves on the american people in hopes to keep the easy money coming in.

My advice to you all is to...............SHUT UP, sit there and take it like the rest of the AMERICANS do.  Can you imagine what would happen if 100 million americans all went to Capital Hill and asked for a BAILOUT!!! ..........Welcome to the pain that we live with everytime  the economy takes a ***.

Dean

Hey bmiller! Have you read some of the horrible stories on this thread about people losing their jobs and their life savings. You want some cheese with your whine about lowering your house payment. Maybe you should go to Tootingmyownhorn.com and post about your credit and bill paying abilities buddy!

Uh Duh! I'm not a Financial Wiz and most likely never will be but even me just a small time business person has known that his could not go on Forever Folks! When prices of houses are increasing to the point that you have equity by the Closing Date and people who have never owned a house can buy with nothing down and a 250,000.00 fixer upper is Sold in less than 24 hrs with Multiple Offers even I knew something was just not right with this Picture. So the Bubble burst and what sold for 500,000.00 is now selling for 300,000.00 who loses The Contractor/Developer and they lose big and quick.They have to try and  keep from going under and lay off their workers ,can't pay their suppiers and service their debt. The whole deal is so blown out of reality that people panic ,stop spending money, worry themselves sick and spread the Gloom & Doom like a Virus that nobody has a Cure for. Not Mr. Obama or anybody else can stop this, it took years to get here and it will take years to get out of this mess. Those with Cash will survive and Live another day those without Cash will learn a lesson that you can't borrow yourself out of Debt. and living beyond your means is Not anybodies Dream but everybodies Nightmare.

I step out to forget about the world for a couple of hours and poof... people are alive here.

Well... to all you wonderful people.

What are we going to do?

We stand at the crossroads of not just a country... but a planet.

We are capable of crossing the great cultural divides and working together at creating thriving MESSES.

That's what our governments and society at large has been doing.

You all talk of the problems. Who cares. You... me... we need solutions.

Until we're capable of coming together ourselves and defining the relations... how can any of us solve this mess?

We're resigned to accepted what we're given.

Have Americans become so docile that you're incapable of fighting for what you believe in?

The ONLY person who did not know that we have been in a recession is about to leave the White House on Jan 20, 2009............George Bush, who lives in Denile, Texas, a very small spot in the corner of his very little mind!

I voted twice for this guy, so you might as well blame me too. Foolishly, I thought I could trust him, but as soon as he was re-elected he replaced all the guys I thought could be trusted with the keys to the Mens Room!

As a Republican for 45 years, I voted for a Democrat President in 2008, and for the first time I can go to sleep at night without fear of my son being drafted into some stupid civil war.

In Jan 2007, my job went to China, and I was a manager in a manufacturing company. Why? We paid our folks on the floor $8.60/hr plus SS, insurance, etc.

In China, there is no insurance or government rules, and they pay their folks $6.40 for a 10 hour day. If a worker misses a day, there are 2,000 people to replace him....yep....replace him permenatly. Forget what you saw during the Olympics, that was all show.

All the while, we IMPORT China's products and export our jobs, and Bush thinks this is great. Each month he tells us how many new jobs have been created. Just how many hamburger flippers does he think we need anyway? People making minimum wage are not going down to the new car dealer to buy cars. Henry Ford figured that out 100 years ago.

Bail out the auto industry? NO, they have no intention of changing. Let them go thru the bankruptcy courts and lean down under new managers. Ford and GM have been beating up their suppliers for years about lean manufacturing. They need to start at the top and work down asking the first question in Lean...what does this person really do and do we need that to be done?

Yes we are in a recession. As FDR once said, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" and the man was correct. Look at the stock market today, panic selling by people who should not be in the stock market at all. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen....or stock market.

The value of our companies has not changed from Friday, only the panic in the minds of some stock holders. How easy some sheep can be led!

It all boils down to corporate governess and  basic comon sense in financial management. My opinion is that things was not management professionally. It was as if there was no "watch dog" to supervise  the public listed entities, financial institutions or banks. The moutains of loans which later becomes bad debts eventually pulls everyone down.    

Until the American People take back out government and force it to once again become a Government For The People, By The People we are in for a world of hurt.

We need to get rid of the lifelong politicians in our government and get some new blood, some new ideas, and some fresh perspective.

1. Immediately demand two term limits for all elected officials - Throw The  Bastards Out! and get rid of lifetime politicians who are only interested in padding their own pockets.

2. Immediately institute campaign finance reforms and spending limits that will allow anyone to run for office.

3. Get rid of the Federal Reserve Bank - Stop printing more money that we don't have the reserves to back.

4. Get rid of the Two Party System  -  The Democratic Party of today is more socialistic then the Socialist Party was 50 years ago. The Republican Party is so intent on building the wealth of the few, that they don't care about the average American anymore.

5. Bring our Troops home - Not just from Iraq, but from ALL foreign bases.

6. Return American to a Strict Constitutional Government - Not one where the Judiciary decides on a daily basis what the Constitution means,

Until we can take back control of our Government we are at the mercy of the few and the rich.

One thing is for sure.  You can't believe anyone on the news.  No one has any better idea of what's going on than the man on the street.  It's pathetic.

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):