Black Friday debrief: Shoppers in 'discount-only' mode - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Black Friday debrief: Shoppers in 'discount-only' mode

Posted Dec 01 2008, 04:36 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Like Monday morning quarterbacks reviewing the weekend's big game, analysts are pouring over the results from Black Friday to handicap the rest of the holiday season.

Initial indications are grim: Shoppers appear to have limited purchases to retailers' low-to-no-margin door-buster specials. Fully 70% of shoppers only bought deeply-discounted merchandise, according to a survey by America's Research Group. The company’s founder noted that shoppers "didn't stay if they didn't get the deals."

Will retail traffic remain robust throughout the holiday shopping season or die off now that the best deals have passed? Anecdotal evidence on Saturday and Sunday point to consumers in "discount-only" mode. This will continue to benefit the likes of Wal-Mart and Amazon, both of which enjoyed extra attention over the holiday.

Moreover, a survey by the National Retail Federation found that more people are finished with their shopping lists compared to last year -- at 39.3% versus 36.4%. So not only are retailers competing for a smaller pool of holiday dollars, but it's becoming more and more difficult to get people shopping in the first place.

It's important to keep everything in perspective. These early reports are based on surveys, not actual sales data. Moreover, while the industry loves to hype up Black Friday, the Saturday before Christmas is actually a busier shopping day.

As the Financial Times noted, in a year of unprecedented pressure on households, the only useful sign from this year's results was if the worst-case scenario was playing out --"that consumers were becoming insensitive to lower prices." It seems that, however cash-strapped they may be, American shoppers still can't pass up a good deal.

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. Feel free to comment below. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

Related reading:

Can cheap gas save the holidays?

The 'frugal future' has arrived

Can Circuit City survive bankruptcy?

Why holiday may be 'Wal-Mart Christmas'

Comments

 

There's very little excitement in stores now.  Clothing looks pretty much the same it's looked for the past 2 years.  

Not many "killer" items in other depts. either.  As a result, if you already have something like it, why buy another?

I thiink most consumers think they can all do more w/what they already have.  I know I do.

Much of the consumerism hype displayed during the Christmas season is exactly the reason why Christmas itself has become a "Wal Mart" holiday.  People seem to forget the real reason behind Christmas and turn it into a reason to spend foolishly.  Even if your getting "door-buster deals", it's no deal if you really can't afford it.

My wife and I were discussing that flat screen TV's are all the rage and you can get one at a good price right now.  Well, we are trying to still pay our taxes from last year and credit cards.  Since I have three TV's now and all of them still work fine, the flat screen doesn't make the list this year no matter how cheap they are. I think I may need some new socks though.  I am getting my wife a new robe and slippers and paying cash for it.

For many middle class households, purchases this season means using credit cards with an already unfavorable balance and interest rate.  Even if your getting a 0% card, many consumers do not pay attention to the rising rate that's over the hill.  Furthermore, in a time when most Americans shoud concentrate on eliminating debt, spending extra cash on the office holiday party is also foolish.  Now is a perfectly good time to speak up and say "I am tightening the belt this year and not purchasing "extra" gifts except for immediate family and I don't want any gifts from anyone else".  This way I won't feel the pressure of having to buy something.

Americans need to realize that foolish spending is what got us here to begin with. Sure, mortgage companies were more than willing to hand out "no-doc" loans and GM thought that everyone needed a new gas-guzzling SUV in their driveway.  Well, when people selling popcorn at the movie theater couldn't make their mortgage and Americans finally woke up to buying cars that save fuel costs, it's no wonder we are in the shape we are in.  Car companies and banks gambled and lost and now they want a hand-out for making stupid decisions.

I own my own business and it's up to me to make the proper projections and decisions to stay alive.  If I fail to do this, then the business fails and someone else who has done a better job will come in behind me and take over my customer base.  That is basic econimics and the U.S. has failed to realize that.  Now, because so many jobs are at stake since these industries have gotten so large and out of control, we almost have to bail them out to prevent more catastrophic widespread job loss.  Just put it on my tab.

In my Grandparents day, if they did not have the cash to buy it, it didn't get bought.  They certainly survived and did not need to rely on the knee-jerk reaction of credit card interest.  The formula is simple:  Live within your means and quite trying to impress everyone.  Find something else to satisfy your cravings beside shoppers "instant gratification".  Impression does not last long when you get your home forclosed on or your car towed away, so enjoy the holiday season with family, break out old photo albums, enjoy a good meal, throw the football in the front yard.  Quit letting Hallmark and Wal Mark run how you think about Christmas and start 2009 off with less debt to pay off as a result.

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