The cheapest stocks since the Reagan era
Posted
Nov 25 2008, 10:50 AM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:
Stocks are the cheapest they've been since the Reagan presidency, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should buy, according to Bloomberg.
Stocks in the S&P 500 index cost $9.24 per dollar of operating profit expected next year. That's half the two-decade median of $18.10, according to Bloomberg. Sounds great, except for analysts' tendencies to overshoot profit numbers.
Earnings results missed forecasts by more than 20% this year, Bloomberg says. In fact, earnings have dropped for five straight quarters. If that continues, stocks will slump for another year.
For example, New York Times shares has the lowest price-earnings ratio in 15 years, trading at 9.73 times analysts' forecasts for next year. But the company has missed estimates by 22% over the last year. So if you bring those earnings down to reality, the shares are trading at 12.4 times next year's earnings.
Similarly, oil refiner Tesoro looks great at a P/E ratio of 5.2. But if Tesoro continues to miss forecasts by 51%, its valuation more than doubles, Bloomberg says.
It's a story we talk about a lot here on Top Stocks. Analysts get it wrong. And lately, analysts are far more optimistic about earnings than they have any right to be.