The cheapest stocks since the Reagan era - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

The cheapest stocks since the Reagan era

Posted Nov 25 2008, 10:50 AM by Kim Peterson
Rating:
Filed under:

Stocks are the cheapest they've been since the Reagan presidency, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should buy, according to Bloomberg.

Stocks in the S&P 500 index cost $9.24 per dollar of operating profit expected next year. That's half the two-decade median of $18.10, according to Bloomberg. Sounds great, except for analysts' tendencies to overshoot profit numbers.

Earnings results missed forecasts by more than 20% this year, Bloomberg says. In fact, earnings have dropped for five straight quarters. If that continues, stocks will slump for another year.

For example, New York Times shares has the lowest price-earnings ratio in 15 years, trading at 9.73 times analysts' forecasts for next year. But the company has missed estimates by 22% over the last year. So if you bring those earnings down to reality, the shares are trading at 12.4 times next year's earnings.

Similarly, oil refiner Tesoro looks great at a P/E ratio of 5.2. But if Tesoro continues to miss forecasts by 51%, its valuation more than doubles, Bloomberg says.

It's a story we talk about a lot here on Top Stocks. Analysts get it wrong. And lately, analysts are far more optimistic about earnings than they have any right to be.

Comments

 

I cashed out some of my bonds into the mutual fund market 10/15. The dow was about 8500.

That said I missed the absolute bottom, but I believe that was a smart move.

Now that we're back about there ...Its actually a good feeling because it seems the bottom probably happened and now its going to bounce around for a year or so. But over time the stock market return will out earn the old bond fund. We'll see about that- but I am committed.

Getting back into bonds with fresh funds now (20%) new monies (stock 80%). There may be more to bonds now and after Obama gets ripping. No time to wait and see. End of message.

Someone with a lot of market savvy may be able to pick winners &  losers and know when to buy and sell in this market. The individual investor or the 401K guy has to go with the flow, ride the ups and downs, and hope in the end he'll do OK. I'm 99  9/10%  out of stocks and into treasuries. I've had enough. Nothing will EVER get me back into equities----no way, no how! I don't care if the DOW hits 20K. For years, I've been saying the little guy just gets pulled along. The stock market is no place for us anymore. My personal opinion---Wall St. got what it deserved and it was long overdue      

Stan W.,   Your comments are the same as I remember in 1975 at then end of that terrible bear market.  It was the "Death of Equities" and many swore off stocks forever.  We know what happened...a great bull market was born.  If enough investors have your attitude then this is the time to buy and the profits will be tremendous.  I will agree though, the current time period is probably too early to do serious buying.

I agree with Steve that you've got it backwards, Stan.  The lower stocks go, the more interested you should get.  You say that you won't get back into equities "even" if the dow reaches 20k.  That makes little sense, dow 20k might be the right time to run.  Your statement would have made sense if it had said "I won't get back into stocks even if the dow hits 5000."  When you buy something, you want to buy it cheap.  I think there may be more downward movement, but this is the time to start thinking about buying.  

Stan's motto: Buy high, sell low

lol, kijb.

This is my first post re.stocks EVER and I am brand new to the equity market. I've watched the ups and downs too scared to invest and now wonder if I missed my chance. According to my research, everything looks really cheap but will we see the dissmal lows of Oct again?

Do you agree with the following?

There will be more pressure to sell stocks next month to take advantage of capital losses. US economy will not recover until more people find jobs, pay off debt, and start saving money. Houses will continue to fall in price, perhaps another 5%. During this time the stock market will continue to fall. What we need is jobs, not more consumer credit.

There are only two times when the price of your investments matter; the day you buy and the day you sell. If your sale date is many years off into the future, then why would you be concerned about the market today or tomorrow?

In fact, if your not planning to sell for say 15 or 20 years then you should be embracing a weak or protracted bear market. Buy low sell high is the way it works, yet most people do it the other way around.

I have been following the markets daily (as a hobby of mine) for 25 years.  Here's how it works.  The market is "effecient". What it knows how to do is create the greatest number of fools over time.  So whatever the majority thinks is going to happen, will not happen.  What is unexpected is highly likely.  However, longer periods of time work alot better for the small investor than shorter periods, as the professionals use our funds to create short term winners and losers.

If you don't take care of your own personal investing why should any one else?

Laziness is no excuse for losses. TAKE CONTROL of your own Financial Destiny.

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):