Homebuilders facing extinction - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

Homebuilders facing extinction

Posted Nov 20 2008, 08:23 AM by Minyanville
Rating:

For as bad as things are in the housing market, it’s remarkable that none of the country’s big homebuilders have gone bust. The industry’s resilience is a testament to how much money the firms raked in during the boom.

Just ask guys in charge.

The Wall Street Journal reports many homebuilder CEOs socked away such obscene amounts of cash over the past 5 years that they out-earned their Wall Street counterparts. As profits soared, Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll and his brother Bruce together took home $773 million, while Dwight Schar, chairman of Virginia-based NVR earned more than $625 million from stock sales.

By contrast, vilified Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo earned a mere $471 million during the same period.

Sitting on huge -- but dwindling -- stockpiles of cash, big builders like DR Horton, Lennar and Ryland Homes have thus far ridden out the bloodletting. According to JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut, these 3 may yet see positive cash flow in 2009.

Their smaller rivals, however, may not be so lucky.

Rehaut predicts that Pulte Home and KB Home could see negative cash flow next year - and some analysts believe 2009 could finally be the year that weaker hands start to fold. Credit protection for Hovnanian, Standard Pacific and Beazer Home is trading like the companies’ failure is a foregone conclusion.

Meanwhile, one key characteristic of market bottoms is notably absent: Consolidation.

Just as strong American banks have swallowed up the weak, no meaningful housing market bottom will be found until homebuilders begin to feast on one another.

Let’s face it: We don’t need 10 different multi-billion dollar companies churning out indistinguishable cookie-cutter "mansions" on tiny lots in cramped subdivisions miles from the nearest grocery store. We’ve got our hands full already, thank you very much.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department said October housing starts registered the lowest reading since 1959. Since just 4 of the 10 builders mentioned in this article existed 50 years ago, it looks like 6 are pretty much dispensable.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Andrew Jeffery.

Related Articles:

Keepin’ It Real Estate: Housing Crash to Reach NYC

Treasury Defends Bailout Bait-and-Switch

Insurance Companies Position Themselves for Bailout

Comments

 

What has been amazing is that no builders have been blamed for the housing market financial dilemma we are in today. Do you think that todays crisis could be a "shot in the foot" situation? I have seen blame put on Lenders, Banks, Mortgage

Brokers,Realtors,etc., but never a builder. Where did these inflationary prices come from?

Home building has its ups and downs.  The bubble was created by easy credit and now these guys will have to live off their cash for a few years until the economy recovers.  There are probably too many production builders out there right now for the lack of demand.  So goes this economy.  We have had recessions before and we will have them again.  You just weather the storm.  The uptick we had wasn't going to last forever and people need to understand this.  

Builders could share some blame but they were supplying a product home buyers wanted.  Now, I blame borrowers before builders because they are the people that bought more home than they could afford!

These builders knew exactly what they were doing; over building in every market because the money was free-flowing.  They simply said "to heck with common sense and normal growth rates, we need to cash out asap; the faster we build, the more we can sell.  The greed factor was too great for these morons who blame everyone else except their own selfish interests.

These builders knew exactly what they were doing; over building in every market because the money was free-flowing.  They simply said "to heck with common sense and normal growth rates, we need to cash out asap; the faster we build, the more we can sell.  The greed factor was too great for these morons who blame everyone else except their own selfish interests.

These builders knew exactly what they were doing; over building in every market because the money was free-flowing.  They simply said "to heck with common sense and normal growth rates, we need to cash out asap; the faster we build, the more we can sell.  The greed factor was too great for these morons who blame everyone else except their own selfish interests.

Consider why builders did so well! They started a house at a cost of say 100,000 to the builder, with the possibility that materials might have risen 5% or so which would increase the cost to say 102,000 (labor remains constant).  Yet homes were appreciating at 20% per year in places.

So while he planned to sell the home for 120,000 and make an estimated 18,000 per home, before it was completet the market had driven the value up to 144,000 thus the profit rose to 42,000 per home from the original 18,000.

Now those with inventory are getting the opposite effect.  

We can thank the policiies of this govt that made mortgages available to those that didnt actually quality for the loans they bought.  When refinancing or selling is the only way for a lender to be paid, that is an illegal loan!  

I have never seen a home built in the five years that I thought was worth the price.I have seen people buy 400,000 homes that I felt was not worth more than 225,000.Who fault is it ? First the builders then the realtors,then the lenders and last but not least the people that bought these over priced homes that are now underwater.It is the fault of everyone,the builders who charged too much the realtor who wanted a big check the lender who want to make in intrest and the buyer who paid the over inflated prices

Utterly ridiculous to blame builders. They are supplying what there is demand for. If you buy it they will build it. Its that simple. People just want to point fingers. I say the bulk of the blame lies with the homebuyer. People aren't as stupid as they claim to be. They knew they were buying what they couldn't afford, but did it anyway. They treat buying a home like buying a soda. No research. About the only question they ask is am I approved? "Great! Where do I sign?" 100% thier fault. Read what you sign! Do your research! Know you finances! No EXCUSE!

Who will the financial crisis to save the world economy and the U.S. economy look here

www.economy-finance-banking.com

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):