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Why bailout won't save Detroit

Posted Nov 17 2008, 04:51 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are at the epicenter of intense maneuvering in Washington D.C. as those taking a tough stand for free-market principles lock horns with pragmatists worried about massive layoffs in the rustbelt.

Political reality will lead to some form of assistance given the popularity of Keynesian fiscal stimuli these days and the amount of pressure being applied by industry. Unfortunately, people like to assume that once Detroit retools its factories and stocks its showrooms with the fuel efficient cars and car-based SUVs of the future, happy days will return. They won't.

As I wrote last summer, we simply have too many vehicles to sustain the Big 3's current production capacity. The United States now has 981 cars for every 1,000 people of driving age compared to 613 in the United Kingdom and just 24 in China. As a result, no amount of government aid will stop the factory closures and layoffs.

Since 1990, new car sales have exceeded the scrap rate by one-third -- pushing the median American car age to 9.3 years and filling the market with a multitude of nice, reliable used vehicles. While trading in a used car for a slightly newer used car is less than glamorous, it's a choice penny-pinched drivers will increasingly embrace.

The Financial Times estimates that if vehicle density stops growing and Detroit can stabilize its market share around 48% (down from 75% in the 1980s), then there is a market for only 6.5 million cars from the Big 3 in the United States. That's down from 9 million just two years ago.

To survive, even in slimmed down form, the automakers will depend heavily on exposure to still-growing international markets. In October, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers noted a 10% increase in production over the previous year. Showroom traffic is also up slightly. Detroit must be able to competitively penetrate these markets.

This is something the private equity hotshots at Cerberus Capital should have considered before buying Chrysler from the Germans last year: More than 90% of its cars are sold here in the United States. Kimberly Rodriguez of Grant Thornton's automotive consultancy sees the writing on the wall: "Chrysler as we know it will cease to exist very soon." Call it death by market saturation.

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

Related reading:

Americans own too many cars

Chrysler gives bonuses, asks for bailout

Some ideas on how to bail out GM

Obama floats $50 billion automaker bailout

Comments

 

The root problem is not too many cars.  The Big Three, soon to be the Little Three, cannot compete.  Hire me, I will make them compete!

Let the big oil companies with their windfall profits bail out the gas guzzlers--Ford,

G.M., and Chrysler.

You know I am really getting SICK of MSN posting all these blogs daily about GM.Its hard enough for us dealers right now to do business without the doomsayer media getting the public going too.Wgat the hell is wrong with you? Do you realiaze this is the FIFTH blog this month pertaining to this topic? You and Kim Peterson need to be fired immediately.

On another note,please realize that these people(GM workers) have lives and we are real people that do not want to be unemployed.

Sensationalism at it's finest right here folks.....

Try to be a little sensitive to other peoples feelings that may lose their jobs......of wait,this is America,we forgot how to do that....what was I thinking???

Support for the auto industry allows it to continue its transformation and progress that began well before the current economic crisis.

U.S.‐based auto manufacturers, in conjunction with the UAW, have taken major actions to restructure their business to be fully competitive.

Latest UAW agreement (Fall 2007) provides solid basis for cost competitiveness…GM is restructuring their companies, reducing costs, improving quality, increasing productivity…all the tough, necessary actions that will help GM emerge as a stronger, more competitive company.

GM has negotiated new agreements with UAW partners that have rewritten the rules of competition in our business... the cumulative structural cost reduction from 2006‐10 will be approximately $13‐14 billion and have responded in an innovative way to reduce so‐called "legacy" costs associated with pensions and retiree healthcare.

Starting in 2010, GM expects cash spending on U.S. pensions and retiree healthcare to decline to about $1 billion per year. That's a savings of about $6 billion a year... which makes GM dramatically more competitive...

GM has been streamlining its U.S. operations. It has reduced its U.S. salaried workforce from 44,000 in 2000 to 32,000 in mid‐2008, and its hourly workforce from 132,000 to 72,000 during the same period.

In response to the recent economic crisis, GM is further tightening its belt. The company recently took additional actions to reduce salaried employment costs by 20 percent, eliminate raises and discretionary bonus for executive and management employees, and suspend the 401k match for salaried employees.

GM led the Harbor report for manufacturing productivity with more of its plants leading their respective segments than any other.

Support allows continuing product and technology investment necessary for future competitiveness…we’ve also heard the call for more fuel‐efficient passenger cars.

Recent product launches (like Chevy Malibu) confirm U.S. industry’s commitment to product excellence.

Major commitment to cars / crossover (18 of GM’s next 19 launches, 13 of last 15).

New GM products are winning acclaim: Saturn Aura and Chevrolet Malibu won North America Car of the Year. The Cadillac CTS was Motor Trend Car of the Year. The 2 Mode Hybrid Chevy Tahoe—a full size SUV that seats seven with great towing capability—gets the same highway gas mileage as a Toyota Camry and received Green Car of the Year at the LA Auto Show.

Quality also now viewed as fully competitive…with lower warranty costs and with the new Chevy Malibu, Cadillac CTS, Saturn Outlook and Chevy Silverado recognized by both J.D. Power and Consumer Reports.

GM offers 17 models achieving 30 MPG highway or better – twice our nearest competitor.

Support enables growth in U.S. technological capability/leadership in key new propulsion areas and strengthens the nation’s energy security…the U.S. cannot allow its current dependence on foreign petroleum to be replaced with foreign‐sourced and developed technologies.

The Chevy Volt changes the rules of the game by creating an entirely new propulsion category ‐ Extended Range EV. Range is 40 miles on pure electric and zero emissions…with most commuters never using a drop of gas.

A healthy domestic auto industry is key to US R&D preeminence ‐ government support will maintain US leadership in overall R&D spending for years to come

Without the R&D spending of domestic auto companies, the US would fall behind Europe in overall R&D spending according Booz Allen’s recent report on the “Global Innovation 1000”

Booz Allen has rated GM at the top‐ranked US company in global R&D spending in 2008 at $8.1 billion – ranked second across all companies globally

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The domestic auto industry is driving the investments in advanced biofuels

Funding for development of cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels rests on the prospect of a large market for high level ethanol blends like E85 in flex fuel vehicles.

The domestic auto companies have committed to make half of their fleets FFVs or biofuel capable diesels by 2012 – no other automakers have made any similar commitments.

o

The domestic auto industry is making the US a center for hybrid technology

GM has 8 hybrids in the market using technology developed in the U.S. – 20 are planned by 2012.

Chrysler, Daimler and BMW are partnering with GM to further deploy GM’s domestically developed hybrid technology to the marketplace.

o

The domestic auto industry is the only industry capable of standing up a domestic advanced battery industry

While many recognize the importance energy storage technologies in the 21st century, only the auto industry had the potential purchasing power to drive the location of advanced battery manufacturing – and only the domestic auto industry can drive that investment in the US.

o

The domestic auto industry is the only industry sustaining development of a domestic fuel cell industry.

I worked at Caterpillar Inc, for almost 40 years and saw them face a simular problem with competition and high labor (union) costs. They made the difficult choice of taking on the unions and internation competition. They were successful though they went through a very difficult process of change. I believe there wouldn't be a Caterpillar today if they hadn't made a stand to change.

Too many big gas guzzling autos with a high price tag.  High price tags pay for employee salaries, exec salaries, retirees.  Something has to give.  

My Car is 11 years old and I will drive it till it dies because I can't afford a new vehicle. Why not give Americans a voucher to be applied to the purchase of a new car?  I'm talking $5-10 thousand dollars. Big 3 get reimbursed by the govt (that's their bailout money), employees still work, car owner has new vehicle.

AL Greenspan, who admitted to congress his flawed Free Market ideal, which caused this financial crisis, is responsible for the auto makers decline, sue him and let him pay for this mess, suing is the free market perferred method of  correction course. The auto makers and every business harmed should start using it.

What a pathetic article.  Why does the press in the United States hate the american car companies?  Why does the press root against our country and its citizens?

Sue, sue, sue the FEDS, they are a private company who caused the credit crisis, now buyers can't get credit, The Auto Makers should sue the FEDS    and Mr. Greenspan their policies caused injury, they need to be held responible for the 11 trillion dollar loss so far.

The auto industry has brought this mess upon themselves as all the other companies that are having problems have.  The CEO's of these companies never cried one bit when they were raking in the HUGE bonuses and stock options that made them multi-multi millionaires year after year.  To bail out the BIG 3 would just prolong the inevitable.  When do we say enough is enough??  Let's be real also in looking at how these companies have been run over the last decade or 2.  The workers get less and the CEO's get more.  Every year they cut back on benefits, make the average worker pay more for their health benefits.  ALL the while the people on TOP get bigger bonuses.  I love the idea of "THE AMERICAN DREAM" what it really means is that "THE RICH GET RICHER AND THE POOR GET POORER"  Our government really needs to take a hard close look at this before they bail out the auto industry.  What they need to do is go to THE BIG OIL industry who posted record profits for the last two years and have them bailout the big three, If not for soaring gas prices the auto industry would not be where they are now.  Mike, Florida

The author didn't write about the strangle hold the UAW unions have on the american car makers. It is simple. Because of the giving in for fear of strikes the car companies have let the corrupt United Auto Workers union negotiate terms and conditions far beyond what the car companies could afford over a prolonged period and now it has all caught up with even the compact line of cars being over priced. Five to seven years to pay off a car loan? Work is work and pay is pay, but $70,000 plus a year for the repiticious job of putting car kits together? 16 holidays a year plus a family day off? Overboard health care packages with measely employee contributions? Absurd sick leave and retirement plans? Stupid job secuity packages? Detroit is building some fine automobiles but sorry, ain't no way the american car companies can survive with this kind of union dominance.

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