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Why bailout won't save Detroit

Posted Nov 17 2008, 04:51 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are at the epicenter of intense maneuvering in Washington D.C. as those taking a tough stand for free-market principles lock horns with pragmatists worried about massive layoffs in the rustbelt.

Political reality will lead to some form of assistance given the popularity of Keynesian fiscal stimuli these days and the amount of pressure being applied by industry. Unfortunately, people like to assume that once Detroit retools its factories and stocks its showrooms with the fuel efficient cars and car-based SUVs of the future, happy days will return. They won't.

As I wrote last summer, we simply have too many vehicles to sustain the Big 3's current production capacity. The United States now has 981 cars for every 1,000 people of driving age compared to 613 in the United Kingdom and just 24 in China. As a result, no amount of government aid will stop the factory closures and layoffs.

Since 1990, new car sales have exceeded the scrap rate by one-third -- pushing the median American car age to 9.3 years and filling the market with a multitude of nice, reliable used vehicles. While trading in a used car for a slightly newer used car is less than glamorous, it's a choice penny-pinched drivers will increasingly embrace.

The Financial Times estimates that if vehicle density stops growing and Detroit can stabilize its market share around 48% (down from 75% in the 1980s), then there is a market for only 6.5 million cars from the Big 3 in the United States. That's down from 9 million just two years ago.

To survive, even in slimmed down form, the automakers will depend heavily on exposure to still-growing international markets. In October, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers noted a 10% increase in production over the previous year. Showroom traffic is also up slightly. Detroit must be able to competitively penetrate these markets.

This is something the private equity hotshots at Cerberus Capital should have considered before buying Chrysler from the Germans last year: More than 90% of its cars are sold here in the United States. Kimberly Rodriguez of Grant Thornton's automotive consultancy sees the writing on the wall: "Chrysler as we know it will cease to exist very soon." Call it death by market saturation.

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

Related reading:

Americans own too many cars

Chrysler gives bonuses, asks for bailout

Some ideas on how to bail out GM

Obama floats $50 billion automaker bailout

Comments

 

Has anybody looked at the trade deficit lately?  At what expense can this country continue their passion for foreign cars?  As a public accountant I know that any business that spends more money then it receives is destined to fail.  We have been sending more money out of our country then we have been receiving back in trade for yet some time.  Whether we want to admit it or not the Big3 make good vehicles that we as Americans should consider for purchase before we send our money to foreign countries.  There are Americans in our own country that need our support.  It is unfortunate but to create a strong America again we just have to support the Big3.

I don't quite understand why we are so forgiving to the financial institutions who loaned trillions to unqualified buyers but now recieve a bailout.  Why are we bailing out wall street who has stole our retirements for thier own bonuses and they get a bailout.  Next it is OUR government that has made it unfair for the big 3 to operate on a fair playing field.  Japan has subsidized Toyota for years and they including Honda, Nissan, Kia, all take there profits back to their respective countries stealing America's wealth.  The Big 3 are the only real product producing American Companies that need our help not criticism that are in this trouble because gas went to $5 a gallon.  Nobody wanted small cars when gas was at $1.50 just a few years ago.  America, yes us are spoiled and we love our V-8's that the asian companies tried to copy and emulate unsuccessfully so they stuck with small cars and got lucky gas went to $5.   Shame on all you so called Americans.  When the Big 3 fails we will in every industry fail and all of your so called unrelated jobs will feel the sunami.  Why did we bail out New Orleans when we never got a dime back, why did we pay for the hoover dam to help Nevada, and now that the largest single employers of American products is asking for our help we want to turn our backs on them ??? YOu all are not Americans, wake up  people  wake up!!!!!

The Bush administration has negotiated a new free trade agreement with South Korea. The UAW is strongly opposing this trade deal because it will jeopardize tens of thousands of automotive jobs in the United States, and because the agreement fails to include meaningful protections for worker rights.

Korea is the fifth largest producer and third largest exporter of vehicles in the world and automotive trade between the United States and Korea is totally one-sided. In 2006, Korea exported 554,000 vehicles to the United States. In contrast, the United States only was allowed to export about 4000 vehicles to Korea. As a result, the United States had an $11.6 billion auto trade deficit with Korea.

The free trade agreement negotiated by the Bush administration with Korea would make our auto trade deficit with Korea even worse! It would immediately eliminate the U.S. tariff on autos and auto parts imported from Korea, and phase out over ten years our 25 percent tariff on imported pickup trucks. This will trigger a surge in automotive imports from Korea. The Korean government has stated that it expects the free trade deal to boost its auto trade surplus with the United States by $1 billion.

At the same time, the trade deal simply establishes a toothless process for addressing Korea's non-tariff barriers, with no guarantees to provide any concrete, measurable access to the Korean market. The UAW is also concerned that the proposed U.S.-Korea trade deal lacks strong, enforceable worker rights provisions. Like NAFTA and CAFTA, it will encourage a race to the bottom that will weaken the rights and lower the standard of living of workers in the United States, Korea and other countries.

People, make no mistake. If the big 3 completely fall it would have a MAJOR impact on the US economy and for some time too. People here who think differently have NO IDEA how many downstream businesses are dependant on the US auto industry. This is not negative thinking about the US, its people or its economy – it’s something completely different. It’s called REALITY!

What’s the answer? Another bailout? I don’t know. But what if we did bail them out? What are they going to make next year?

The whole hybrid pitch is a marketing gimmick IMHO. Hybrid cars are pieces of crap whose mpg gains are minimal. And I would imagine that a lot of the added mpg boost comes from stripping down weight and skimping on safety. I would bet that the mpg data figures that they give you for these vehicles are most likely bogus numbers created under optimal driving conditions by drivers using optimal driving styles that no one actually uses in reality. It’s kind of like that hamburger picture you see at the drive-in window of a fast food restaurant. It has a prime looking beef patty that sticks out over all three sides of the bun that is in view, with layers of fresh, full-leaf, deep green lettuce on top of it, and crowned with a couple of thick, pristine red, perfect looking tomato slices. But when you actually get it, it’s just another micro waved hockey puck with shredded, wilted and rotting lettuce with a lone pale green and light red tinted tomato. And mine always has that brown eye in the middle. Funny thing nowadays is that even the bun is different than the picture too. Bottom line is that it ends up being not exactly what you had in mind when you bought it.

So what are our demands? Either get off of the terrorist petroleum drug completely and quite phukin around or quit lying to me? No, that’s not what I am seeing. I mean, where the hell do the rest of you people live? Mostly I see big ol’ trucks, Dualie trucks, SUVs, minivans (mini???) and Hummers. (Funny thing too – as the number on the Hummer increases their size actually decreases.) O.K., you also have your little rice burners zooming around with 50 lbs tail pipes – and they are moving WAY TOO SLOW for all the noise coming out their backsides.

So what’s the answer? Plug in electric cars? Seems nice, seems green. But unfortunately, it’s BS too. The electricity has to come from somewhere. So when you plug it in you demand more what? Yes - more power off the grid, which in the US currently comes mainly from what? That’s right - COAL! And coal = acid rain. You’re not so green in your brand new electric now, huh?

So then we have to build more nukes or start raising a hell of a lot of electricity generating windmills. And where is all that money coming from again? And where is all that empty land coming from again? (Maybe if we simply continue to sit on our asses and wait we can then buy it from China…like everything else nowadays.)

Hydrogen cell powered cars are the answer you say then? So where are we going to refuel those cells? So we have to retrofit all those gas stations you say? And where is all that money coming from again?

I don’t know what planet the rest of you folks live on, but I guarantee you this much. As you stuff all your little gift boxes this holiday season, the enclosed gift, the box, the wrapping, the ribbon, the bow, the tape, the tape dispenser, the scissors, the card, the envelope, the pencil, pen, marker or crayon – ITS ALL MADE IN CHINA. So what’s the big difference if your car is made their too? You didn’t give a hoot about the rest of the US businesses, so what’s up now? Although I just read today that the computer game industry is continuing to do just fine in this “recession”…

But I do think we should at least bail out Dodge. Because they have that there 14mpg 6.1L Hemi Challenger coming out next year, and I gotta have me one o’ dem dare big dogs. Matter of fact, I’ll put a blower on it - cuz remember: if you ain't first you're last...

Mr. Bobby King:

I agree with much of what you say.  However, the "golden opportunity" was in the late '70s and early '80s during the first gas crises.  We could have already been weaned of our dependence on imported oil.

I think the US needs private investment in new auto technologies.  When 1 or 2 of the big 3 fail, there will be an opening for innovation that doesn't exist now.  The market will buy a good, innovative product, but to bail out the big 3 because they are too important will cause us to continue down the current path.  We need "change", as Obama is so apt to push.  How does bailing out the big 3 lead to change?

B

A "low interest loan" is tantamount to a bailout.  The US taxpayer makes less ROI than is possible in the open market.  All capitalists seek the best ROI.

Who are the geniuses at Cerberus Capital that invested in Chrysler.  Oh, that's right, there the same geniuses that run our 401Ks for fees that can't even match the indexes.

What a bunch of yahoos.

Shouldn't someone tell Obama?

I can tell you this. It's not the big 3 we have to blame.Back before the mid 70's the price of oil was cheap. The oil companies back then decided it was easir to explore in other countries for oil then it would have been here. Big oil took advantage of this. The cost of labor overseas was much less then if they explored here and had to hire Americans. At some point all of this backfired on them. The countries where big oil had rigs at realised that they had a supply of oil and were being taken advantage of. These countries got smart and more or less kicked the big oil companies out and took over production. Does it make sense yet? It should. While this was going on the price of foriegn oil went up and so did the price at the pumps. Some of you may remember long lines at the pump, Odd ,Even plate days. The Big 3 at the time you can say got caught with their pants down. Back then most American made cars had a 6 or 8 cylyder engine. there were very few 4's. As the prices went up people back then were going through what we just went through recently. Because of that there was a need for small econocars. Since there was a need it opend the door for companies like honda, toyota and Dotuns now Nissan to get a foot in the door. The problem with that was the door never closed as it should have. I believe they call it free trade. Where is the trade off.The US auto makers are being squeezed out by Japan. They flood the market with cars to be sold here but in return the market for American made cars in Japan is almost nonexsistant. When you buy a Japanese made car most of that money is going right to Japan. The cars they claim to manufacture here in the US are assembled here from parts shipped in from Japan. Why? Because it costs them less to ship the parts then it does to ship a completed car. Go to a Japanes car dealer and look at the VIN lable. Among all the cars that are assembled in the USA are cars that are completly built in Japan.  What happens here is this. If it cost them $12,000 to build it in Japan and ship it here annd say the MSRP is $15,000 they make $3000 on it. On the other hand the car assembled in the US costs them $10,000 that means they make $5000 on it. Where as cars made by the Big 3 may be made in the US Cnada or Mexico it si still being built on the North American Continent. Even with all the parts they ship over to build asseble japanes cars you ever wonder why parts cost so much and how long it takes you to get them?

Support the American workers. Lets close the door on Nissan Honda and Toyota. Maybe we need to call the Orkin man

Most of you have good points....but i look at it this way....supply and demand...the big 3 have been making big trucks, SUV's and large comfy cars is because american people buy them and they made good money on them....i'm sure they didn't want to make little gas saving cars if they were not going to make as much money on them....i don't know of anyone that can see into the future...but we all have plenty of warnings for the future........ok, enough of that, as for a bailout, my decision is split 50/50......what ever they decide, we all would not know for sure how the other decision would have turned out in the long run...........didn't all this economy crisis start with people borrowing  more than they could afford and banks lending more than they should.........i'm thinking the big 3 was caught in the cross fire....

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