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Why bailout won't save Detroit

Posted Nov 17 2008, 04:51 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are at the epicenter of intense maneuvering in Washington D.C. as those taking a tough stand for free-market principles lock horns with pragmatists worried about massive layoffs in the rustbelt.

Political reality will lead to some form of assistance given the popularity of Keynesian fiscal stimuli these days and the amount of pressure being applied by industry. Unfortunately, people like to assume that once Detroit retools its factories and stocks its showrooms with the fuel efficient cars and car-based SUVs of the future, happy days will return. They won't.

As I wrote last summer, we simply have too many vehicles to sustain the Big 3's current production capacity. The United States now has 981 cars for every 1,000 people of driving age compared to 613 in the United Kingdom and just 24 in China. As a result, no amount of government aid will stop the factory closures and layoffs.

Since 1990, new car sales have exceeded the scrap rate by one-third -- pushing the median American car age to 9.3 years and filling the market with a multitude of nice, reliable used vehicles. While trading in a used car for a slightly newer used car is less than glamorous, it's a choice penny-pinched drivers will increasingly embrace.

The Financial Times estimates that if vehicle density stops growing and Detroit can stabilize its market share around 48% (down from 75% in the 1980s), then there is a market for only 6.5 million cars from the Big 3 in the United States. That's down from 9 million just two years ago.

To survive, even in slimmed down form, the automakers will depend heavily on exposure to still-growing international markets. In October, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers noted a 10% increase in production over the previous year. Showroom traffic is also up slightly. Detroit must be able to competitively penetrate these markets.

This is something the private equity hotshots at Cerberus Capital should have considered before buying Chrysler from the Germans last year: More than 90% of its cars are sold here in the United States. Kimberly Rodriguez of Grant Thornton's automotive consultancy sees the writing on the wall: "Chrysler as we know it will cease to exist very soon." Call it death by market saturation.

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

Related reading:

Americans own too many cars

Chrysler gives bonuses, asks for bailout

Some ideas on how to bail out GM

Obama floats $50 billion automaker bailout

Comments

 

The Auto Industry in the USA had 30 years to prepare and tool for this day. Both management and union chose to live for today at the expense of tomorrow. Toyota,Honda,Subaru,Nissan etc all were able to dominate the market in this country because of the big three's inept planning for the future and now they want to be bailed out? Over 3000 companies have come and gone since the first horseless carriage. There will be new, more effecient companies to fill the void. Companies without the encumbrances of bloated gas guzzling inventories to write off, corrupt costly unions and entrenched governmental sponsors. It will be a small amount of pain for a bright new future. Let them go with or without dignity.

We can't keep bailing out companies b/c of poor decisions.  The automakers have had decades to deal with there problems.  If we give them money now no changes will be made and we'll end up having to give them more money down the line.  The best idea I've heard on how to deal with the situation was by karen finerman on fast money...  Basically she said have the government go to the automakers and say we'll only bail one of you out.  Come back to us in 2 weeks with your restructuring plan and let us know how you plan on becoming a viable enterprise.  Then the government will choose the automaker with the best plan.  www.generationyinvestor.com

Wow.  You could not have said it any better.  I agree with everything you said.  They had ample time to prepare for this and continued to get fat at our expense.  Shame on them.

It is true the Big 3 have only themselves to blame for thier predicament and they could have easily avoided it.  HOwever, it is equally short sighted to just let them collapse.  The economic damage would be catastrophic and resonate throughout the country.  Something like 3 MILLION jobs depend on the auto industry right now.  Multiple cities and states would be devastated.  BK for Ford or GM would be a disaster and if more than one of them goes under, the US will go into a depression.

Don't think for a minute that Toyota and Honda haven't had Japanese Government there and even US and State tax help with their operations here.   BK for these guys will be disaster for the midwest, consider Bailout money for morons in New York who created the BS financial instruments that cause this mess, why wouldn't Michigan secede and join Canada, Mexico, or maybe even Japan.

Okay, let's go into a depresssion then and call their bluff! It's about time we let companies win or lose based on their own merits. Trust me GM can bring folks back to the showroom when they produce something that represents valu and reliability. It's working for Toyota, BMW and Nissan. More of the insane bloated programing in Detroit got them into trouble, now it's time to fish or cut bait........

Your argument is well founded.  But, this is not just a situation faced by the Big Three but by all automakers.  It's just that the Big Three are less profitable due to taxes and Union agreements.  If Toyota, Honda, etc.  had the same contracts they too would not have the cash to weather the storm.  Detroits products are excellent and that is why they have a median age of 9.3 years.  On top of that who wants to make car payments for 5 or 6 years only to trade the car in and make another 5 or 6 years of payments.  Instead of the constant trashing of the Big Three make them look at the reality of the market place and adjust accordingly.  I wouldn't let the government choose who among them should survive.  I wouldn't let the government choose any personal use item I had to pay for.  There are so many things wrong about all of this that it makes me ill.  

is everyone nuts?  we should take this same attitude toward the banks and wall street brokers.....let them all fail...all of them...they provide for no jobs and encourage businesses to farm out manufacturing to overseas companys while detroit and the big 3 are employing hundreds of thousands and even millions through all their vendors and ib case everyone is brain dead here remember even the japanese are reeling from this economy even toyota-honda and nissan and then also remember that daimler sold chrysler at fire sale prices because their parent company was already losing money.....wake up people either we all keep these car companies afloat or else we all become chinese when they become the biggest landowner here....and by the way as well the chinese market is not open to foreign car companies there....you gotta build it there to sell it there...now what?

Argentum,

Did you not understand anything in this article??  The market is oversaturated with vehicles (nearly one for every eligible adult).  As our population starts to age, there will be less need.  Chrysler swept 6 of the bottom 10 performing cars while Honda and Toyota took the 10 best performing vehicles.  A bailout simply prolongs the inevitable.  The only solution is to allow them to file bk chapter 11 and try to emerge as a leaner more cost effective entity that can produce quality vehicles and a competitive price.  It's tough to compete when nearly 30% of the cost of a vehicle is for labor and a legacy burden.  Reality is that times have changed since the Chrysler bailout of the Lee Iaccoca days.  The Union has already said that they will not give any concessions.  Not exactly an investment I want to make with my children's tax dollars.  The steel mills went through a similar issue.  Now the mills are owned by Russians and the same former Union steel workers are employed for a fraction of what they used to make.  A bk will force a merger just like in the airline industry.  As far as a depression, it almost seems unavoidable.  Our national debt and the interest payments threaten the value of the dollar.  A bailout doesn't guarantee that people will buy American cars.  With no credit available, nobody can buy one anyway.  It's time to face the music.  The auto industry is brain dead...we need to be strong and pull the plug.

I don't know much about the automotive business but i'm tired of having to bailout companies that were poorly run. These companies should come up with plans to bail themeselves out.  If they cant do it perhaps have other companies come up with strategies and  push for a buy out as long as  jobs are kept in America.  In addition, why not push for steeper import taxes on foreign made vehicles so that more americans purchase U.S. made automobiles.  

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