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The 'frugal future' has arrived

Posted Nov 14 2008, 01:34 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg coined the term "frugal future" to refer to the reduction of consumer debt through all necessary means. Although painful, this cathartic event would undo years of excess where savings rates collapsed to zero and people lived well beyond their means.

Well folks, the days of painfully deep spending cuts, forced garage sales, bankruptcies, and foreclosures are here.

David Leonhardt of the New York Times notes that consumer spending will likely fall $400 billion over the next year, which would represent the first cutback since 1980 and would be of a magnitude not seen since World War II. Although we've known this consumer retrenchment was inevitable, its arrival in the middle of the holiday season is particularly tragic.

Americans are snapping their wallets shut with amazing speed and ferocity: Consumer sentiment remains near all-time lows, retail traffic is down 12.4%, and retail sales fell nearly 3% in October -- the worst fall since records began in 1992 and the fourth straight monthly drop. While tumbling gas prices were primarily responsible, many were hoping consumers would spend the difference elsewhere. It appears the money went to creditors and savings accounts instead.

Battered retailers can look forward to a vicious, price-slashing fight for holiday dollars. Most have already begun cutting forecasts for the holiday quarter. Kohl's expects same-store sales to fall between 8% and 12% over the coming months. Nordstrom is looking for a 13% to 16% fall. J.C. Penny forecasted a 9% to 11% drop. Macy's estimates its sales to be down 1% to 6%.

All are refocusing merchandising and advertising efforts given the new marketplace reality. Shoppers are foregoing fully priced items, and are instead focusing on discounted practical items like coats and scarves. Combined with a need to clear excess inventory out of the traditional retail channel, these development will play right into the hands of off-price outlets like Ross Stores and T.J. Maxx.

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

Related reading:

Intel's 'shock warning' shakes market

Why oil is heading to $200+ a barrel

Can Circuit City survive bankruptcy?

Why holiday may be 'Wal-Mart Christmas'

Comments

 

i would love to hear some positve news.  It seems like these days all we hear is doom and gloom, from tv and radio and now the internet.  We all make the beds we sleep in, you live above your means thats the chance you take.  If we all stop trying to keep up with the "Jones" and be happy with what we have not try and out due or nieghbors life would be alot better....

   For example, i live in a nice neighborhood with good people.  The average age median i would say is late 30's early 40's. Almost all of us are parents, both spouses work, we have mortgages, car payments, credit cards ext...but here is what i realized.

About a month ago my neighbor who is a firefighter (way underpaid) and his wife who is  a tenured school teacher (also underpaid) bought two brand new cars. One being a GMC CREW CAB Z71 ($34K truck) and a ENVOY DENALI ($40k truck)...they have a new born boy and all the toys and fun stuff in the back yard the kid could ever want.  About 2 weeks later the neighbor to him purchased a new car then across the street they purchased 2 new cars and so one.  After a month almost every house on our block had a new car parked in the driveway.  Now for myself i own 5 cars. 3 corvettes and a hummer H2 and my wife drives a chevy equinox. we do not live outside our means , if we have to barrow money we do it short term , never take 0% financing rather the large incentives work out better for us.  But back to my point, what would of been if "jones" 1 never purchased anything ????  would my block still be "cluttered" with 2-4 year old cars in the driveway verses brand new ones???  America is a wonderful place to live i have lived here my whole life and been around the world and always and i mean ALWAYS kiss the ground when i come home.   People believe in a better tommarow believe in the u.s workforce, and lets get back to what makes America GREAT!!!...love your family, love your neighbors, and be thankful for what you have.....:)

As stated above "there is nothing wrong with living frugally". My dad was born in 1932 in a very rural area and was one of 13 children in his family. He often spoke about the lack of the simple things and was thankful and considered it a treat to have a neighbor offer him a bologna sandwich for helping out around someones house doing chores. He often went to sleep hungry wondering what happened to all the food in the world as his family had very little.

 There is nothing "tragic" about dismal Christmas sales this year either. Companies like Nordstron and Macy's also need a dose of the same reality that all of us working class people are facing this winter and beyond. I say more power to the people for closing their wallets and saving what they have for the coming storm. This is only the beginning as I believe the next big crash will come in credit card default as less banks control more money and raise their intrest rates uncontrollably. Ford and GM also deserve to fail for not planning for the future as did Toyota and other japanese car manufacturers. Trucks and SUV's just kept getting bigger and more people used false equity in their homes to buy them so they could impress their neighbors. Shame on them!

 In finality I ask all fellow working class americans to close their wallet to big buisness. Stop buying anything but the essentials. Tell your children this Christmas what a sorry job your elected officials in Washington did for the past 8 years and how they are the ones who became the real Grinch. Instead of lavishing expensive gifts on them this year, sit down at the dinner table and have a real family get together, good food, good conversation and laugh at how you can control the ultimate outcome of this barbaric greed in Washington, of the oil companies and all other buisness's that helped bring this situation about by moving to foreign countries so they could charge an arm and leg for their cheap Chinese junk. Watch the uber rich cringe as they have to give up their Humvees and mansions and maids and butlers. And laugh about it! It's here, it's real and we will survive, but only by sticking together to make it happen.

Just when I thought we were getting by pretty well, my husband passes away and I am left on disability social security to live on.  All the talk about big money seems like another world from the one I live in and I am sure I am not alone.  My vehicle is 11 years old, my house is for sale, I still have two children at home, we have no medical insurance, but the law states I have to take a huge percentage of my income to pay for car insurance and house insurance.  We eat on less than $40 dollars a week and I only go out when I can afford to get some gas in my old car.  I am a college educated woman who was living the good life with a husband who made enough money for us to get by with a few luxuries now and then.  After paying life insurance for 21 years, I recieved nothing when my husband died, suicide.  Death is death.  Just one more rip off.  I no longer trust the government, banks, insurance co.s, etc.  But by law I am forced to do business with them.  Big brother is here undercover and not so undercover.  Give us all a break.  Stop the $$$$ for athletes, movie stars, musicians, government officials, etc.  Why does any goverment official need to receive his full pay until he dies, even if he is retired.  They are all wealthy to begin with.  Talk about greed.  This country is based on lies, greed, deceit, manipulation.  The only thing that matters is money, money, money, at any cost.

Hmm,  I sleep well at night....because I don't owe anyone.  I actually live within my means, paid off my home in 13 years, pay my credit cards in full each month, and save 23% of my income.   My only mistake was listening to too many "financial experts telling me where to put my retirement money"....and losing 25%  as a result of this mess.   Anyone who lives in a house they can't afford, drives a car they can't afford, and has to have all the latest toys by going into debt over your head......hope you are sleeping well.   Time to pay the piper for spending what you didn't have.

Tom C, a big amen to you brother.  This is a time to cut back.  I you want to give someone something for Christmas, take them out to dinner, or something like that to keep the money we do spend here in the USA.  We all have too much junk anyway, just look at all the storage units being built.  

Michelle,  So sorry for you loss.  There is not much I can say that may help you, or reduce your pain.   All I do know is that wealth protect wealth.  Big business always looks after their own first, and they have the government behind them.  But what we, as consumers can do is stop buying products or services from companies that are being bailed out by taxpayer money.  That will be our most effective retaliation.  The less a person has, the less they will be effected by the upcoming events.  

A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage seems ridiculous in the frugal future.  We've got fast food every time we think of hunger and more than one car registered for every person in America.  There is no need or reason to grow, we don't need conspicuous consumption or frugal consumption, we just need to adjust to the much lower actual need and quit buying while we have garage sales to make room for the next thing we buy!

Why can't the government divide the 700 billion between all legal resident and tell them to spend the money by june 2009 and tell them it can be spent on these categories it will be given as a debit card and if unused, it will expire.....I see the boom back in the market.....the numbers will start to get better and so will the sentiments....why pay for failed banks or who knows who else liker aig's or GM's, next on heals maybe the airline and then hertz....I think this is the thing to do.....

my grandfather was a multi-millionaire  who paid cash for everything. cash is back no more credit.

Phil said it all. This is not a tragic arrival, rather a necessary one. I have long felt that another "war" wad due to set us straight. This is a global economic war. We all have ourselves to blame. As a fifth generation conservative Vermonter, I can assure you that our families have always done without by choice. We are proud to now be recognizing our rewards. We have no debt, own our home and have a tidy sum set aside for our child's college education and our own retirement.

We appreciate the simple things in life and "keep up with no one". America will learn a tough lesson but be much stronger and grateful for it.

Being a budget counselor for a non profit organization for the last 10 yrs, I have seen first hand how the "easy credit" has ruined this generation. In my experience, I have counseled couples who are just married in their 20's and have the gall to say that the reason they are in debt is because they wanted all new stuff for their house instead of waiting until they can afford it...I reminded them that it probably took their parents 15-20 yrs to get that and if you ask them what they had when they were first married, they would say hand me down furniture and whatever we got free! It really is the brainwashing of America to believe that "I deserve it"...but no thought to how will I pay for it???!!! I for one think this is a great thing going on its really making people THINK about where their money is ACTUALLY going rather than where they believe it(in denial) it is going. You would be amazed at the number of people who don't know what their income vs outflow is!!!!  My advice...get your budget down either on excel or on paper and you will then really see your bottom line. Then and only then you can decide what your priorties are.

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