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Everyone agrees: The worst economy ever

Posted Nov 12 2008, 01:52 PM by Minyanville
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As the global economy continues to melt down, the use of superlatives is on the rise.

According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, "The drought in consumer spending may be the worst ever."  Meanwhile, Best Buy CEO Brad Anderson, after reporting disappointing earnings and offering a dour forecast for profits, said "Since mid-September, rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have created the most difficult climate we've ever seen."

Not to be outdone, Jeffrey Frankel, of the National Bureau of Economic Research told Bloomberg Monday, "We're in for a pretty serious recession -- there's a chance it'll be the worst postwar recession."

As data from last month begins to trickle out, it's becoming clear the global economy basically shut off at the end of September, and went on outright hiatus during October. Despite massive, coordinated efforts by the world's central bankers and lawmakers, fears of a worldwide economic slowdown are becoming a reality.

Circuit City
filed for bankruptcy protection Monday, retail-sales data is bleak, and regulators shut down 2 more American banks over the weekend. Las Vegas Sands is fighting for its survival and facing a cash crunch; most agree General Motors, Ford and Chrysler won't survive without a federal bailout.

Commodity prices are tumbling and miners, steelmakers and industrialists are scrambling to adapt to the rapidly shifting economic landscape.

What many once believed would be contained to the small, esoteric world of subprime mortgage-backed securities has spread like wildfire, as years of lax lending and easy credit is being unwound in a manner of months. Firms are slashing jobs at an astounding rate, policymakers still can't seem to get a handle on the housing mess and the effects of the financial crisis are rippling through the global economy.

Estimates for economic growth over the next 6 months are abysmal at best, as American consumers lead the trend towards thrift - both voluntary and involuntary. Most economists agree the holiday shopping season will be the worst in years, and the US economy could contract by as much as 3%.

Gloom and doom are ubiquitous.

What's notably missing -- and this should be considered marginally positive -- is hope. Hindsight often tells us that when the news is at its worst, expectations at their lowest, and when fear trumps rationality at every turn, the worst may be over.

Unfortunately, we've heard that story before. It has yet to come true.

This May, in an ominous prediction, Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, chief economist at Ford and president of the National Association of Business Economists, offered that the entire US economy will "slowly return to health" this year.

Ms. Hughes-Cromwick may have been just a bit premature in her rosy outlook.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Andrew Jeffery.

Related reading:

The Great Expression

Markets On The Knife's Edge

Fed Lends $1.1 Trillion, Won't Say To Whom

Comments

 

Wake up folks, this whole stockmarket thing is only a contrived issue by some wealthy investors trying to drive out the little investor and that is what they are doing. If you create enough fear in the market most inexperienced investors ( small) will leave with their minimal loses and their stocks are are bought by the wealthy few getting even richer .  It happened in 1929 and we went into depression .  The rockefellows didn`t loose any money back then so what makes you think the wealthy will loose anything now.  Just look at the actions of secretary Paulson in giving those taxpayer tax dollars to Goldman Sachs, want to know why?  He couldn`t afford to let them go down as he has many many millions of dollars in that bank.  Guess what, you fill in the blanks.  things wiill only change when we hit bottom and a full collapse takes place and thats where we are heading.  Not only here but all over the world.  Hold on to your ass, it is going to be a wild ride and you ain`t seen nothing yet.

Don't panic. Everyone will kiss the ground on this one(recession). Even the rich will feel the pain. Life goes on and we all turn the page. The only thing is to remember our mistakes and not get into this situation again. We must all buy american and ween off the imports. Imports are our greatest threat to our economic well being. Lay off the beamers for awile. Buy Ford,GM,Chrysler and help our economy first. Our American car builders realize their mistakes and have done something about it. They are making better cars. Support American buisness first and we will recover. As far as the realestate banking, don't lend to the high risk. Stick with credit risk standards ( fundamentals). For everbody out their, participate in the recovery of our economy. Monitary policy will be changed ( updated). The Federal Trade Commission will also be updated. We can't have short selling run amuck with this kind of market (computerized).   Just have patience and participate, it's our country and our livelyhood at stake here.

pioneer days are back, more home losses means more homeless. Plant your gardens, Obama is not going to be able to fix everything, take care of yourselves, no one else will.  Your choices are what determines your future.  If you don't have the cash, you don't need it.  Live within your means, help others, be kind to those less fortunate, for one day it could be you in their shoes!

If you are not at least 40 years old, you have never experienced a Recession. Those 39 years and younger have only experienced mild economic down turns. The age group 18 to 39 have no earthly idea of what is about to happen to them. Apparently, this time around mommy and daddy can't bail out the 18-39 year olds that have had a silver spoon fed existence for all these years. This same age group can't prop up consumer spending as they've spent all their money as well as mom and dad's. Spent it long ago. You know, that highly unemployable age group brought to you via  a broken school and university system.

Leveraged financials, businesses, and consumers will have to go through the deleveraging process for years to come. Likely a 6 to 8 year recession. And no, FDR and the new deal spending didn't actually work. Sorry. You can't spend your way out of recession. Private Capital Formation must occur and that is a way off.

Finally, the fall Presidential Race was all about how screwed up the economy is/was/will be. A gloom and doom Presidential Race. The same way the media went gaw gaw over Obama is the same way the media is setting the "expectation" for a major recession. Expectations is the number one variable in Economic Activity.The media is not your friend when they always carry gas cans to any mess.

Here's a way we might boost the economy. Temporarily say for the next few years put a ban on sales tax for any goods Made in America. Similar to the ban on sales tax for food. That would include vehicles made in America even if they are made by Honda or Toyota. But it would also include so many products that Americans might just start looking at the labels for a Made in America stamp on everything they buy. This would be a massive boost to American production of goods and jobs and it doesn't require a tariff.

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