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China is worse than anyone imagined

Posted Nov 07 2008, 06:36 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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There have been some minority reports from pessimists like NYU economist Nouriel Roubini which say that China's economy may be faltering as badly, if not worse, than America's. No one believes that because it is too staggering to think that something so big growing at 10% a year could ever do anything worse than cool off a bit.

But, once something makes it to the front page of The New York Times, it is true everywhere and always.

The paper says that "Just as China attained supercharged growth that astounded much of the world, it appears to be slowing more sharply and more quickly than anyone anticipated."

That is too bad because economists had hoped that China's great miracle was "decoupled" from the economy in the West. China's export base and its new position as a major consumer of goods and services would keep the economy of the world's most populated country on track.

Of course, the notion that national economies are decoupled from one another in a world which is essential operating under free trade was always hard to defend. But, it had the benefit of being hopeful and allowed people to sleep at night without worrying about a titanic global recession.

It is no longer easy to make the case that China is any better off economically than the US is. America is too big an importer of Chinese goods. China's fall might lag the one in America, but never by more than a quarter or two.

China has a treasury plump with capital from years of trade surpluses. It will have that dry powder to help it through the trouble. But, that cash may not be leaving China as it used to. Its sovereign funds may no longer be big shoppers. Worse, it may lose some of its appetite for US Treasury debt, which would make keeping a high deficit in America more expensive than it has been in decades.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Comments

 

November 6, 2008 (LPAC)--The devastating consequences of a failure to adopt the New Bretton Woods proposals of Lyndon LaRouche, in the near term, are being writ large in the ongoing economic breakdown in China. The latest details reported are as follows:

A senior official of the State Council told the China Daily on Nov. 6, that ``major economic gauges indicate that we have entered into an excessive economic slowdown and need a radical stimulus package right now.'' He said he was ``shocked by the October growth rate, which is below zero, which means more closures, bankruptcies and job cuts.'' (emphasis added)

``In steel and iron, at least 30% of firms have already stopped production,'' the official, who demanded anonymity, continued, ``and this is hitting other industries.''

A senior official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ziu Hongren, warned on Nov. 5 that China's industry is facing a ``grim situation,'' and that the global financial crisis will have a deep impact on the industrial and information technology sectors.

He said that the electricity, textile and non-ferrous metal industries have already sustained heavy losses, with 18.35% of large industrial companies losing money during the first eight months of the year. Industrial output growth fell to 11.4% in September, the lowest since April 2002. Power generation and oil production grew a mere 3.4% and 3.7% respectively, while steel output fell 9% year on year. In the first three quarters, the value of industrial exports rose 15.7%, which was 6% points down from a year earlier.

The official news agency Xinhua reported Nov. 6 that half of the autumn harvest from China's largest cotton platnation area in Xinjiang remains unsold, due to the slowdown of the textile and other industries on China's east coast. The price of cotton has crashed from 13,722 yuan/ton in August to just 2000 yuan/ton in October. Not only regular farmers, but impoverished migrant workers will be hit hard, since the cotton plantations employ millions of them seasonally.

China Daily reported Nov. 6 that already ``several hundred'' shoe factories have shut down just in the city of Dongguan, a center of the export industry, as orders have fallen by 30-40%, and production costs soar by over 20%. Last year China exported 73% of the world's shoes. Factory owners from Hong Kong and Taiwan are simply closing factories down and skipping town, leaving tens of thousands of workers without any livelihood.

China has now clearly replaced America as the economic super power.  If there is a global recovery, bet on China recovering the fastest among the major industrialized nations.  In the long-term, it will be far more profitable to invest in stocks that have substantial operations in China.  More on Chinese stocks at http://www.WallStreetStocks.us

Why is this supprising at all, if the US and most of the world is slowing down, why wouldn't China..  All of their goods are sold to the US and major countries around the world..  And at the same time China's people are consuming outragous amounts of everything..  Thier money won't last long at the pace of their consumption, if exports slow down considerably..

The US can pull out of this mess if its own people would buy American made products from American owned companies whenever possible and if we could convience the congress to allow us to do whatever necessary within reason to create energy right here at home.Whats been done can be undone thru hard work.

Close the borders, put americans to work rebuilding our infrastructure. Build Nuclear and Coal power plants. Build electric cars here and tarriff foreign imports. Stop sending money to other countries and use it here. Put our troops on our borders instead of in Europe. Maybe the banks could put past due mortgage amounts onto the back of the loans so people behind could start making payments again. (Once you fall behind it is hard to come up with all that money to catch up.

Ditto to the comments by Tom Boynton.  Additionally it is time we cut our standing army to a realistic level consistent with our refusal to use ground troops to win a war.  We can always project air and naval power as needed to punish anyone who attacks our interests anyhwere on the planet. Also if our auto industry is asking the government (taxpayers) to rescue them from themselves, then maybe our government should dictate that the manufacture of autos be primarily electric, hybrid and small fuel efficient autos...we do not need anymore cars that are large enough to carry 4-6 passengers when 80 percent of the autos on the road carry only one or two passengers.  A tarriff on imported goods could be justified as payment for the cost to the US for being the world's policeman.

sure is easy to figure out how to fix this mess! Why don't they understand this in Washington?? All this is a game, Rich want the middle class to pay for everything!! Why they sit back and get rich!!!!!!

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure! When there is an economic contraction the way out is to put the unemployed to work on massive projects such as a high-speed rail-line LAX to SFO and solar panels laid from Las Vegas to Reno, etc. Then when the economy bounces back we will have something that is tangible to build upon rather than having it evaporate into thin air with consumer non-durables and frothy derivatives.  Hoover Dam, the interstate highway system, etc. are still of value and in use today. When people have jobs their confidence rises and they go out and buy things. It is better than the alternative of having them sit home all day leaving time for mischief and crime to tempt the idle. Gosh that last sentence seemed so old-fashioned but it is true. Both China and America can fill in the potholes of the bumpy road ahead with aggressive implementation of this.

The key to this problem is to create technology that generate saving on a long run like effeciency on every aspect of the industry ,provide benefits to manufacturing that produce new technology that saves money in energy ,so the investment will pay off after the recetion is over and we have a solid industry that can support new investments and will stay as in investment for long period of time  ,raise taxes on luxury items and bail out on company that follow the process of energy efficiency ,we are in this mess because the well is getting dry and we don't have any source to fill it up again. Invest in education ,promote energy effeciency in every goverment projects ,invest in new equipment that produce a saving like solar power,nuclear technology ,provide financing for companies to change to new technology and trade technology with other countries to form a standar don't accept anything less in the market .Countries will promote new products were the users will save money for other purpose other that energy waste ,the environment will benefit and produce better weather that prevent less natural losses like ecosystem damage,more healthy food ,less sick people less expenses on medical treatments , better life for all and a healthy work force to produce without loosing work .. it is win situation for everybody ,implement better diets in every restaurant starting in schools so we have a next generation with less cancer and long life and productive generation ,so the key is to be efficient the  number one solution for this world.

People believe that China is going to be the only worlds super power because of its trade surplus and investment in foreign countrys, but if you take a look into china's society, you would realize that China is largely a poor nation. Only a small percentage of China is wealthy compared to the US and most of its society is dirt poor. How long can China take the land and resources from a huge part of its population without having a civil war erupt. The huge class difference is the only thing that the public is not allowed to see and so people believe that everyone in China is wealthy but the wealth is not distributed at all. Compare the average American salary to the average Chinese salary and I think you will agree.

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