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Why holiday may be 'Wal-Mart Christmas'

Posted Nov 06 2008, 04:48 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Don't tell Wal-Mart about the recession: the retailer just posted sales growth of 2.2% as it captured trade-down customer traffic. CEO H. Lee Scott Jr. is downright cocky, telling a recent meeting of investors and analysts that in his mind "there is no doubt this is Wal-Mart time."

The company plans to aggressively cut toy prices over the coming weeks, turning the upcoming holiday in what Deutsche Bank analyst Dill Dreher calls "a Wal-Mart Christmas."

Meanwhile other retailers are reporting some of the worst monthly sales figures in decades. What makes Wal-Mart so special?

With consumer confidence plunging to an all-time low, credit availability drying up, and unemployment on the rise, it's no surprise that even previously buoyant retailers like Costco are hurting. Same-store sales fell 1% at the warehouse club, its worst performance since tracking started in 1997. Discount retailer Target is also struggling to make its "cheap-chic" merchandising strategy work with embattled consumers looking for hard discounts. Same-store sales fell 4.8% versus an expected decrease of 2.8%.

For now, the retailing behemoth that Sam Walton built is perfectly positioned to steal market share in this environment. A survey of 1,000 shoppers by IRI found that people are dramatically changing their buying habits to stretch each dollar. For example, roughly half of the respondents are making a conscious effort to make cleaning and personal care products last longer. Many are also foregoing professional services from haircuts to doctor visits.

This, combined with what we've already learned about increased private label purchases, less eating out, and more dependence on the paycheck cycle, points to an increasingly desperate consumer. As the holiday approaches, Wal-Mart's ability to extend purchasing power will become more and more appreciated by both shoppers and investors. 

Disclosure: I don’t own or control shares in any of the companies mentioned. I can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com

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Comments

 

So in your opinion Wal Mart is an attractively price stock at this time which warrants buying some common shares and adopting a wait and see approach if I read you correctly.  Is that right?  Thanks.  Your blog is most helpful and interesting.  Ed Vaughan

This blog makes it sound like only desperate and broke people who scrounged pennies from couch cushions are shopping for ramen noodles and cans of spam at Wal Mart because its "cheap".

Give me a break. There are many of us who are not poor and broke. There are many of us who do not have maxed out credit and three mortgages along with four new cars on 700 a month leases.

And we shop at Wal Mart because we like the store and can save a few dollars year round. The reduced prices on ten toys is not going to make or break any ones budget for Christmas.

Walmart has consistently  practiced bad labor practices from under paying their workers, failing to provide basic benefits, supporting sweat shops over seas by buying only the cheapest products, and shutting down any store that attempts to unionize.  Yet many shoppers  and investors of this conscienceless  company refuse to acknowledge this reality only by spending their dollars there to support an organization that epitomizes the problems we have with our new service economy.  I will boycott Walmart when ever possible until managemnt gets  the picture.  That probably will not happen until others take a similar stand .  

I worked for Wal Mart. Paid health and dental (my plan cost me 12 dollars a month.Try and find that on the open market). Company matched 401k. Paid vacations.

I sat in on several buying seminars. They buy American products when the price is competitive. You can thank unions for all the China made products thank you very much. And unions should be declared domestic terroists. I dont blame Wal Mart for keeping them out. I would do the same if I owned a buisness. And whenever I am approached by a union organizer I dont reach for my wallet to pay dues. I reach for a gun.

Johnw106 Wow I am amazed how you feel about unions. Well, I know that you have said that your plan was only $12 a month.What were your co pays? How much out of pocket for major medical,orthodontics? If you were to add four other family members, then how much would the $12 plan jump to? Let me tell you.. I am a union employee and glad to earn a decent wage. I make fifty thousand a year. How many Walmart employees make that much. You would have to put about five employees together to make that. Also I have fully paid thats right fully paid 0 out of pocket for my medical and dental. So unions do work.

i work retail, been at walmart, target and toys r us.  minimal wage is normal- walmart is not under paying by those standards.  they actually start above minimal wage.

i worked at those because i don't want to join a union. i know they work for some.

and to joe- you maybe a union member, but you did not say which industry you are in.  i doubt it's retail.  i know someone who has been at a retailer which has a union, and they where there for 25 years and never earned that much.  and the union did not protect them when the company downsized to hire people at a much lower wage.

Lots of things to comment on here!  My dad works at  Wal-Mart and he makes a decent pay for a retired guy, he also gets the medical plan and $4 prescriptions at Wal-Mart Pharmacy. You can't beat that.   I also know people who worked for a union and for some industries a union is a good idea, it helps to protect the employees and gives them a layer of protection that regular employees don't get.

Back to Walmart. The prices are great. I truely believe that many of the things we regularly need are overpriced. Things that you can get a Walmart for $2 cost $4 else where. It is just not right for the consumer. With the price of everything else skyrocketing, like gas, utilities, interest rates on credit cards etc, I am happy that Wal-Mart has the power to offer some relief to us for the things that we cannot live without.  Way to go Wal-Mart! I enjoy saving money and if people don't like the wage or the fact that there is no union, go and work somewhere else. At your own risk of course, because many other competitors are closing and laying everyone off.

Thanks for proving my point joe. The average wage for a GM line worker to snap plastic parts onto a car? $50k a year. Unskilled high school/GED level education labor making $50k a year?

I would do the same job for 20k a year. And you wonder why we have no textile mills or steel mills any more? Why we have no manufactoring base?

To the other. My co-pay was $0 for anything other than preventive dental which was $20.00 a visit. Health was $250.00 for hospital care for the first $20k and zero after that. $25.00 dollar out of pocket for normal doctor visit. I stand by my views on unions. They have turned into nothing more than political leeches who grab for power and no longer resemble what they were in the day when they fought for safe working conditions and a fair daily wage.

As far as Unions go — I cannot say they are all good or all bad.  — I have never had to work for one.  — I have always been fortunate enough to work for corporations that care enough about their employees to pay a descent wage for an honest day’s work; and which, above all, treated their employees with human decency.  

Yet, I also realize there have been corporations in this country which were not fair with their employees and which were somewhat abusive in nature.  — Hence, the origin of Labor Unions.  — Rather there is still a need for Unions is a decision to be made by the workers.  — If we could ensure and enforce the concept of “Human decency” upon every individual and corporation then I would say ‘not needed.’

As far as Wal-Mart goes — I have a son who has been working for them for about 10 years; in that time he has worked his way up from stock-boy to Assistant Store Manager.

As far as “Unfair Labor Practices” — yes, in some of their southern located stores there have been class-action suits justly won by their employees.

The benefits Wal-Mart offers; medical, dental, 401k, and stock purchase options; are nothing more or less then any other retailer offers.  — Their rate of pay is competitive with every other retailer — and their rate of pay is directly affected by the area each individual store is located in.  For instance, in the south Wal-Mart’s starting pay for a stock-boy is between $6 & $8 per hour; however, in the northeast, that same stock-boy will start between $8 & $10 per hour.  — Nothing extraordinary.

I am old enough to remember Wal-Mart’s humble beginnings — when Sam Walton was still alive.  — Old Sam had a dream, to make Wal-Mart an American store — his promise to the consumer was he would only buy & sell product “Made in the USA.” — And he made good on his promise — then he died and that all changed.

I have been a customer of Wal-Mart’s, like so many others, for a very long time — until very recently — I only visit them now and then just to confirm that what I found still remains true.  

Much to my amazement, when I ventured out to shop at some smaller local stores — I found that Wal-Mart was not giving me the best or cheapest prices.  — By going to local stores I have been able to drop my weekly grocery bill from $125 per week to $76.  

For instance, Wal-Mart sells their brand of coffee (34 oz) for $6.99 — the smaller stores sell their brand, same size for $4.99.  Likewise, Wal-Mart’s 20 oz loaf of whole-wheat bread sells for $2.67; the smaller local stores sell their brand, same size, from $0.99 to $1.59 — same price discrepancies to been found with milk, eggs, butter, cheese….

As far as quality of goods — with groceries the quality found is exactly the same for Wal-Mart brand as with other store brands.

Other general merchandise sold by Wal-Mart — I found there is not much savings if any at all; the quality of merchandise is that which consumers use to refer too as “Seconds”; in addition, choices in color, size, and brand are very limited.

That which Wal-Mart has that other stores do not — a damn good marketing firm which uses all the gimmicks; smoke & mirrors; to keep the consumer coming in.  

As long as the American consumer continues being the “Suckers” we have always been then Wal-Mart will continue to dominant.

Studies have indicated that Wal-Mart lowers prices when they move into an area and then slowly raise them after people get into a habit of shopping there.  After a period of time, the prices become equal to or more than other area stores, as Caroza pointed out.  In addition, it is well known that they undercut their suppliers which will ultimately lead to job losses within the smaller business that are trying to sell their goods.  I made a decision several years ago to not support a company that uses these unethical practices.  Whenever possible, I support the local businesses to keep my money in the community.  With the amount of market share that Wal-Mart is capturing, I would suggest that some of you make this same choice, or we will not even have a choice before we know it.

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