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If Detroit goes down, so do 3 million jobs

Posted Nov 06 2008, 07:01 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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Every industry has its blue-chip think tank. In the case of cars it is the Center for Automotive Research, which has come out with a new and disturbing study.

Based on forecasts which look at The Big Three, the foreign competition making cars in the U.S., auto parts companies, and other related industries, a collapse of the U.S. auto industry would cost three million jobs. U.S. personal income would drop almost $400 billion over three years.

If only half of Detroit's capacity was compromised, the number of jobs lost would still be over two million when the ripple effects to other parts of the economy are taken into account.

In the worst case, the government would lose over $150 billion in 2009, 2010 and 2011. If those numbers are right, it leaves Congress and the administration one question: how much are they willing to spend to keep all that tax income.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Comments

 

It seems kind of funny that whenever there is a problem, everyones first reaction is ' Who's fault is this?' Having ben raised in the Motor City, it seems easy enough to blame the big 3, the unions, or perhaps the ever present need to post dividends to stock holders. But the reality is, the internal combustion engine has reached it's limit. Sure there are claims of 65 MPG, unfortunatly those cars do not meet the US Federal requirements for Automotive safety. If the technology was really there, the Japanese would really be kicking our ass.It's time for the smart people of this country (not our Congressional leaders), to sit down and figure out how to fix it. Come up with a plan, and implement it. Pay cuts for big 3 management should be top priority!

Casey, wake up.  The real people the brought down the auto industry were the unions and everyone that supports unions.  Bad people need to get fired and good people need to get promoted, something that is fundamentally flawed in every union!  For it was you that gave $80,000 salaries to people that barely graduated from high school.  Good job at taking away the big 3’s R&D funds and placed that money in the pockets of stupid union cronies. The only cold-heartedness I see is how you union people have taken away everyone’s 401k’s and IRA the don’t life in that awful state.

The real problem is that most American-made cars are not up to the Japanese standards. Consequently, people don't buy them. Duh. This has been going on since the 1970's.

God you people have no idea of what you rant about.  I work for one of the auto companies  and I can change my own light bulbs, thank you.  GM has been making

30+ mph cars for the last 10 years.  You are the idiots  who where buying the SUV's,

drinking your $ 5.00  cups of coffee.  The EV1 electric plug-in was built in the 90's

and was discontinued because  no one was buying them.  Learn of what you speak before letting your ignorance come shining through.

Bob the Builder,

About 3 years ago, just before the gas prices really took off — President Bush gave out a tax benefit to ALL businesses which purchased large gas guzzling vehicles, like SUV’s and Hummers —  a full tax credit equaling 100% of the purchase price of such.

I remember it well, for I laughed my rear- end off — I saw it coming and the fools fell for it.  No sooner did they receive their tax credit and the gas prices started to soar.

I'm laughing now -- a fool and his money are soon parted. -- I bought a small economical chevy that year.  -- I have lived too long, for I have seen all their tactics.

You hit the nail on the head wen you mentioned unions.  Someone mentioned the greedy corporate raiders above.  There is as much or more greed in the union leadership than there is in corporate america.  Unions killed the steel industry in this country and they are killing our auto industry.  US automakers cannot build a automaobile as good in quality as Toyota can for the same cost, because our labor costs are too high.  The industry will kill itself and there is not much we can or will do about it.  I can assure the new administration won't tackle the problem.  It will probably make it worse.

Clair has got it almost right . Unions can absorb most of the blame. They have held the auto industry captive for years, making it very difficult with archaic work rules that do nothing but protect non-producing workers. The caste system, which includes bosses, stewards and n'er do-wells who are on the payroll but do not produce a single thing, drives up the cost and more importantly, takes away all the flexibility the manufacturer should have to respond to market conditions. Guilds and unions are traditionally anti-business and their time has come. Do any of you out  there think it's just coincidental that the foreign manufacturers doing business in this country want nothing to do with organized labor? Their success speaks for itself. And, remember, they are employing literally thousands upon thousands of our citizens, paying them prevailing wages, and organized labor is locked out. I don't hear one yelp from the employees. Do you?

Federal regulations on safety and on emissions prevent car manufacturers from designing and producing gasoline cars with 40+ mpg.  The only way to get there is by making the cars very very small.  However, these cars represent only a small portion of the annual vehicle sales in the US.  People with families need midsize cars or SUV/minivan vehicles.  Electric and hybrid cars simply displace the polution to the powerplant and they present an envirionmental disposal issue at the end of the vehicle's life.  Diesel engines have been regulated out of the small car and can only be used on large heavy trucks.  The gasoline infrastructure is here to stay.  No easy solution from an engineering perspective.  The best immediate solution for the individual is to drive fewer miles.  Move closer to work.  Car pool.  Ride your bike.  Reduce the number of times you go get groceries.  Don't use the drive thru at restaurants when there is a long line.  Keep your car properly maintained.

g caddell,

From my personal experience, I cannot say that is true.  I have owned many automobiles — Chevy, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Datsun, Volkswagon, Mitsubishi…  When it comes to the economical compact styles — they were all pretty much equal.

In the 70’s we bought American cars — reason being the repair costs on foreign vehicles were astronomical because the parts had to be imported.  — Now there is no longer penalties to pay for imports.

Unfortunately the issue is over capacity.

There are too many autos being built and much of the manufacturing capacity WILL BE downsized. Probably a reduction of 25% in auto manufacturing will be coming soon. That means massive job cuts anyway you look at it. Estimates are 1-3 million jobs lost in the auto industry and related support industries.

We are facing an historically difficult economic future. Possibly over 15% unemployment, with a very slow recovery.

The economic term "depression" is defined as a longterm recession.

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