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Stocks are cheap, but cheap enough?

Posted Oct 27 2008, 01:23 PM by Kim Peterson
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Warren Buffett says investors should be putting money into U.S. stocks. But are those stocks cheap enough yet? The Wall Street Journal is on the case.

Stocks look great if you look at what they're trading at relative to their earnings over the last year. The companies in the S&P 500 index are trading at 13 times earnings, the Journal says, well below the 21-times-earnings average over the last decade.

And the index is about 1.74 times the book value of its component stocks, down from the 3.26 average seen over the last 15 years.

So you might say stocks are cheap. But if things continue to go to hell in a handbasket and we slump into a deep recession, these prices won't look like such a deal.

In other words, we probably haven't hit bottom, experts say.

"If you don't have the heart to deal with a drop from here, keep your cash reserves," an investment manager told the Journal.

Another portfolio manager told the Journal he doesn't want to buy yet. People who jumped on stocks a month ago have seen losses of 20% to 30%, he said. He's waiting for more signs that the market has stabilized.

Related reading:

Last minute deals are rich for stocks

Buffett bashes cash, cheers stocks

The cheapest stocks in the S&P 500

Some well-known stocks under $10

Stocks getting the thumbs up right now

Comments

 

Assessing the value of a stock solely on the basis of a price earnings (PE) multiple is a dangerous thing.  In bear markets, PE multiples contract.  In bull markets, PE multiples expand.  While the average PE was over 20, I still think that is way too high for the average stock.  For a growth stock, it would be okay because then you are paying a premium for growth.  I personally do not buy stocks that are trading over 15 times earnings in any market.  Better safe than sorry.  In any case, get educated about how to assess the current value of a company, and then compare it to the stock price to see if you have a potential bargain.  There is some good info and links on a website called http://www.GrowthStockTips.com

E/P ratios are a clearer comparison to fixed income, actually.  A P/E of 5 means the company is earning 20% on the price you pay.  Little matter if earns are flat or even fall 50% from those levels.  But a P/E of 20 is only a 5% return, with lots of risk, and those earnings better grow.  Pay attention to future earnings vs. past, and take your pick.

haha we are a nation of death, suffering, and overall craving for destruction

Hoping to time the market bottom? Good luck with that plan. Stocks may have reached bottom and maybe not. One thing is certain. Five years from now you will be happy you put money into stocks when the Dow was jumping between 8000 and 9500.

let everything crash and get a fresh restart....

This is all speculation.  Failure of GM, Lehman, credit market drying up has led to the most dismal consumer confidence in decades.  Not since "BLACK FRIDAY" have there been so many negative forces controling thge market and in fact the US economy.My old profs and educators based economy on Samuelson, Housing starts, GNP, wholesale price index , all those numbers were mixed in a soup and ladled out as gospel. Today we are driven by emotion.  Consumer confidence, erosion of our wealth and watching the dismal reports every day on  CNN has made us all afraid to buy anything that will last longer than a stick of gum.  Until we have a sustained upswing in the market and a cessation of companies seeking a US bailout, we will continue to drop.  There is no lower resist level any more. That has been broken as many times as it has been established. When peope feel better about our direction and only then, will we begin to recover.  Consumerism drives our economy, pure and simple and coiunsumerism is built on credit. Sure, five years from now we will look back and wish for todays stock prices but... who will be around to buy the stocks. Our unemployment will have run out and we wont gave anything left in a safe bank. We'll spend out time shooting looters and trying to keep our neighbors from eating our children.  In short- were all screwed.  Thanks George W.

Obama's re-election depends on the great lake states so my guess is Ford/GM will get their act straight and pull through this with some help early next year from the new administration and congress.  My highly unscientific /puffschest method is asking myself....what the hell will survive the next year.  I'm a blue collar worker and my guess is gonna be in companies dealing with infrastructure like CAT(Caterpillar) that will see sales go up when a large infrastructure package is passed by congress early next year to get folks back to work, and in green tech stocks dealing with solar/wind/cng and ethanol/chemicals like ADM.  I agree that if you have the time even getting into stocks at this level will yield a nice reward within 5yrs though.  Just wish i had more of the green stuff to snatch up deals now :(....long live the school bus driver's budget /cries lol.  (always a need for school bus drivers :P....got outta trucking when i saw this coming down the pipe, will go back to big rigging once it turns around.)

nice one hillbilly

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