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The failure of the American consumer

Posted Oct 15 2008, 03:42 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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We're witnessing an epic demise of the American consumer. For the month of September, retail sales fell 1.2% -- the largest sales drop in three years and the third consecutive monthly decline.

The decline was lead by auto sales (down 3.8%), furniture (down 2.3%), and clothing (down 2.3%). The result was double the consensus estimate and brought the annual retail sales growth into negative territory with a 1% decline.

It looks like the situation is deteriorating quickly. Consider additional insight from Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. A few of their contacts remarked that sales tax receipts are "currently falling more sharply than they have in prior recessions (and from already recessionary levels), and comparisons continue to be to the 1990-91 recession, not 2001's more mild slump."

Another interesting observation is how growth in the International Council of Shopping Centers' sales categories have changed since retail sales peaked in 2006. Luxury stores have gone from year-over-year comparable store sales growth of nearly 7% to a negative 11% reading for September -- a swing of nearly 18%. Department and apparel stores have shown similar shifts. Meanwhile, discount stores and wholesalers remain buoyant. Obviously, a great consumer retrenchment is underway.

What's worrying is that we still don't know how the recent market sell-off affected consumer spending. Based on work by the ISI Group in New York, things are likely to get much worse as we enter the critical holiday shopping season.

If stocks stay at currently depressed levels, the market component of consumers' wealth would be down nearly 36% year-over-year. When combined with an estimated 7.4% fall in house prices, this could drive total consumer net worth down by a record 13.5% for the fourth quarter. Such a hit to consumer wealth would cut total economic growth by 1.3%. Such a decline would help drive unemployment from the current 6.1% reading to ISI's dour 8.5% estimate as consumer spending dries up further.

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Comments

 

hey i just got another mule i know i could have got by with one mule  but i could get the fields done in half the time , i knew i would have to hire someone else to drive the other mule but the guy i hired  was going to buy his own place and get his own mule  and he needed the money . thought i was helping  shame on me for wanting more

Please.  America has suffered from a self-induced delusion of having it all for sometime, as long as we can pay for it on plastic.  The average US "consumer" buys crap on credit that becomes obsolete technology in about a year.  The tragedy is when people can't pay for the basics of survival, like electricity, water, shelter, and food.

I read an article a year or two ago that said that among the top 20 or so most industrialized nations, Americans saved less than people in most of those countries. It comes as no surprise that when the chips are down we have little to nothing to fall back on. Our society is so brain washed to spend spend spend! Most of my neighbors cannot get their cars, pickups or SUV's in their garages because there are too many ATV's, motor cycles, boats other other big ticket items crammed in there. We have all overspent our limits and have conditioned the retailers to believe that we are an endless well of "must have" consumers with unlimited funds to play with. Can't pay your mortgage, is it any wonder? We all want to find someone to blame this financial mess on but have you looked in your own garage? A vicious cycle of one domino toppling the next has begun, the piggy banks are empty and a witch hunt is on! Gas prices have dropped (temporarily) so lets run out and buy that big beautiful gas guzzling Lincoln pickup! How short sighted we seem to be, no self discipline exists anywhere now. Live for today America! The grass hoppers rule, the ants retreat and the AIG people are blind by choice. Until Americans realize the error of their ways, none of these economic problems will ever go away. Get a clue, become a responsible spender, pay yourself first. Our next generation is learning how to be irresponsible from the previous generation and the cycle will continue unless we all wake up to the truth.

We can't spend what we don't have, Companies would rather pay illegals ridiculously low wages or outsource to another country where labor is supposedly cheaper instead of giving the true american worker the wages they deserve and require to survive. Let's face it the cost of fuel, food and everything else has risen a lot over the last 6 - 8 months and that was before this big slide in the market. This all rests on the shoulders of the Overpaid Fatcats and CEO's who will still walk away from all this with a big smile and even bigger paycheck. Why not take everything they own and use that to bail out the economy, leave them a $100,000 pay for a home, car, utilities, fuel, groceries, etc. and see how they like it. Maybe they would have to go out and get a real job. I SAY LET'S HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE, NOT THE U.S. CONSUMER.

Why am I not estatic over a report that doesn't know the difference between "lead" and "led"?  Perhaps the inabilithy to communicate in simple English has contributed to our "demise."

DUH!   Wages for the average American have been stagnant for years.

We can't be consumers if we don't have good jobs with good wages.

Also, you can't have it both ways - be a good consumer and spend

AND be save more for retirement.   Double DUH!

The failure of the American consumer is a bad title. A better title would have been "The American Consumer is finally compelled to live within his or her means"

Can't you come up with another endearment term for us? Consumer is so 90's. How about people? Humans? Biological entities? Consumer sounds so much like a pig at a trough. But then again maybe that's what we are to you and your kind.

That is the underlying issue here - they fail to mention in this article that this is business and governments attempt at forcing the masses of Americans into a system of servitude/indenturde servants/surfs.  This is class/economic warfare at its finest.  The rich became too greedy and instead of dipping into their golden parachuttes for the bail out package, they come to the masses who have been abused by high energy costs, corporate greed and political ambition.  The corporations bottom lines have been increasing, however, those who do the work are getting a smaller share of the profits while those who sit atop the peak are lavishly pampered with week long retreats as their business goes bankrupt and the masses bail them out.

WE NEED TO WAKE UP AND TAKE BACK WHAT IS OURS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  THIS IS OUR LAND, OUR MONEY, OUR BLOOD AND OUR SACRIFICE - WHY ARE WE BEING FORCED TO GIVE EVERYTHING TO THESE BAST$%DS WHEN THEY DO NOTHING BUT ENSLAVE US AND OUR CHILDREN WHILE DESTROYING THE VERY FOUNDATIONS OF OUR GREAT NATION!

Your all so arrogant. Your talking about cutting back on buying toys and cars and THINGS. How about those who are just making ends meet, or not, on basic necesities. Food, fuel, tolls just to get to work. We don't appreciate the basic things we have but will whine about using a cell phone for more than a year.

It's about greed, and boredom and feeeling that we never have enough.

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