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The failure of the American consumer

Posted Oct 15 2008, 03:42 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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We're witnessing an epic demise of the American consumer. For the month of September, retail sales fell 1.2% -- the largest sales drop in three years and the third consecutive monthly decline.

The decline was lead by auto sales (down 3.8%), furniture (down 2.3%), and clothing (down 2.3%). The result was double the consensus estimate and brought the annual retail sales growth into negative territory with a 1% decline.

It looks like the situation is deteriorating quickly. Consider additional insight from Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. A few of their contacts remarked that sales tax receipts are "currently falling more sharply than they have in prior recessions (and from already recessionary levels), and comparisons continue to be to the 1990-91 recession, not 2001's more mild slump."

Another interesting observation is how growth in the International Council of Shopping Centers' sales categories have changed since retail sales peaked in 2006. Luxury stores have gone from year-over-year comparable store sales growth of nearly 7% to a negative 11% reading for September -- a swing of nearly 18%. Department and apparel stores have shown similar shifts. Meanwhile, discount stores and wholesalers remain buoyant. Obviously, a great consumer retrenchment is underway.

What's worrying is that we still don't know how the recent market sell-off affected consumer spending. Based on work by the ISI Group in New York, things are likely to get much worse as we enter the critical holiday shopping season.

If stocks stay at currently depressed levels, the market component of consumers' wealth would be down nearly 36% year-over-year. When combined with an estimated 7.4% fall in house prices, this could drive total consumer net worth down by a record 13.5% for the fourth quarter. Such a hit to consumer wealth would cut total economic growth by 1.3%. Such a decline would help drive unemployment from the current 6.1% reading to ISI's dour 8.5% estimate as consumer spending dries up further.

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Comments

 

   Look, it is true that the average consumer has lost buying power over the past few years where their paychecks are now covering basic necessitites and not much else.  But in a society where even the poorest of households have flat screen tv's, stereo systems, souped up cars, and surround sound, people are spending way beyond their means.  This was bound to happen.  Why is this a surprise to anyone?  I do believe that those CEO's and bankers who got rich on faulty numbers should be prosecuted and  jailed, if necessary.  But let us not forget PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY!!  Just because they offer you a credit card limit does not mean you need to max it out if you can't pay it back.  Though these times will be tough for a while, we will be better off for this experience.  People need to stop living beyond their means, walking away from debt they knew they could not afford, putting it on everyone else to pay off that bad debt *the banks are not assuming all that bad debt), and start being responsible again.  

The real problem is not only are the consumers tapped out, corporate America is as well. Very few people know that over 50% of the "assetts" on the books of the fortune 500 is "good will", no cash, no property, no machinery, ect. Good will is worthless it has no intrinsic value. This is one of th leading causes of the stock crash and nobody is talking about it. The housing bubble, the stock market bubble, the bubble in commodities, ect., ect. ect. have all come home to roost in a perfect storm. Instead of giveing trillions of dollars to prop up failed banks and companies it would be much more effcient to give the money directly to the people ie. the consumers. The far right will rail against this as socialism, however, they are all for corporate socialism, ironic eh.

heres an idea, cut my cost of living  then  incress my wages and i will spend more... signed the  american consumer

p.s.  if not.. roit in the streets to follow  see bread riots of paris  for more insight,

Oh no, the worst drop in consumer spending in THREE years?!!  Oh my god, call the army!  Prepare the bomb shelters!  GIVE ME A BREAK, Will YA??

Face it folks a great many Americans have consumed way more than we should during this era of "easy credit!"  Cars we could not afford, homes we could not afford, big screen TV's in every room, a new lap top every year and every other gadget that is out there.  Not to mention having to dine out 4 times a week.  Then some of you just have to blame someone else when we should point the finger at our society.  Now, some do struggle and you can't blame them but others try to live the highlife and know they can't afford it.  I think American's will be forced to learn a lesson from this financial crisis.

JUST ANOTHER fine mess GWB is responsible for! It was the unrestricted money for the war in IRAQ that started this mess....Just print up some more $100.00 bills...Lose a pallet or two of hundred dollar bills...no one had to sign for them!

If i ran my finances like the goverment, i would have been bankrupt in 1 day.

WHAT gives the goverment the right to spend our taxes on a credit basis( give the bill to our grandkids)...but "NO NEW TAXEs"for now?? Who is supposed to pay this credit back??? JUST another goverment pyrmaid scheme, that will bite the USA in the butt...The buck stops.....WHERE??? Can you say Boston Tea Party!

I THINK PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO LIVE BY THEIR MEANS NOW INSTEAD OF LIVING ABOVE THEIR MEANS IN A PATHETIC ATTEMPT TO LOOK LIKE THEY ARE LIVING LARGE AND LIVING THEAMERICAN DREAM. YES THERE IS STILL AN AMERICAN DREAM ONLY NOW IT HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. PEOPLE NEED TO SAVE THEIR MONEY NOT SPEND IT ALL AND GET CREDIT TO SPEND SOMEONE ELSE'S MONEY AND THEN CRY WHEN THEY CAN'T PAY IT BACK

DICKY

Then why is the goverment bailing out the rich???? no different than bailing out the poor. when your business fails you will get a bailout,, we need  to let them fail so they will learn a lesson

Hellllllllooooooooo!!!!!!!  We've got all the junk we need!!  We'll buy more LATER, when we need it.

There are two things we MUST do---stop listening to the "doom and gloom" reports of the LIBERAL MEDIA that is just looking to blame the current administration for all our woes-- They think this will insure a Democratic Candidate win in the election.  The other thing that has to be done is get rid of all the "pork barrel" spending in government.  This will help to reduce taxes and put  more money in the pockets of  the "American Consumer."  It would also be a 'good thing' to prosecute the individuals responsible for the housing mess--you know who they are!  Anthony Mirhaydari begone!!  Long live John McCain!

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