The failure of the American consumer - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

The failure of the American consumer

Posted Oct 15 2008, 03:42 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
Rating:

We're witnessing an epic demise of the American consumer. For the month of September, retail sales fell 1.2% -- the largest sales drop in three years and the third consecutive monthly decline.

The decline was lead by auto sales (down 3.8%), furniture (down 2.3%), and clothing (down 2.3%). The result was double the consensus estimate and brought the annual retail sales growth into negative territory with a 1% decline.

It looks like the situation is deteriorating quickly. Consider additional insight from Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. A few of their contacts remarked that sales tax receipts are "currently falling more sharply than they have in prior recessions (and from already recessionary levels), and comparisons continue to be to the 1990-91 recession, not 2001's more mild slump."

Another interesting observation is how growth in the International Council of Shopping Centers' sales categories have changed since retail sales peaked in 2006. Luxury stores have gone from year-over-year comparable store sales growth of nearly 7% to a negative 11% reading for September -- a swing of nearly 18%. Department and apparel stores have shown similar shifts. Meanwhile, discount stores and wholesalers remain buoyant. Obviously, a great consumer retrenchment is underway.

What's worrying is that we still don't know how the recent market sell-off affected consumer spending. Based on work by the ISI Group in New York, things are likely to get much worse as we enter the critical holiday shopping season.

If stocks stay at currently depressed levels, the market component of consumers' wealth would be down nearly 36% year-over-year. When combined with an estimated 7.4% fall in house prices, this could drive total consumer net worth down by a record 13.5% for the fourth quarter. Such a hit to consumer wealth would cut total economic growth by 1.3%. Such a decline would help drive unemployment from the current 6.1% reading to ISI's dour 8.5% estimate as consumer spending dries up further.

Related reading:

Iceland blames male ego for financial meltdown

Some good news: Food prices on the decline

Companies pull back tech spending

Can infrastructure projects ease coming recession?

Comments

 

I am a very small business been in business 18 years and  made my living in retail business & consumer spending, Let me tell you that August was down 50% and September down 80%. I can not keep going.  But I recently had a man buying saying  to me without even saying what is happening to me. He said his business is down in August for him, and I replied yeh it was like some one turned the key and slammed the door.  So I proceeded to ask him what business he was in, his answer was he was a doctor. I was shocked,and so was my friend but then he explained people are dropping medical insurance so they can't afford to come to doctors by the way he was specialist in in a well known group and hospital. This is pitiful and scary for America. The message is people are just not spending at all.  The consumer has been run to the ground but so has been the businesses. I had a very successfull business and made a living from it.  Never been rich, but could live just like all Americans. I was shocked in August, but stunned in September with figures, and October is worse.

Who edits this column?  Perhaps it was a play on words, but the second paragraph which begins with the phrase "The decline was lead by auto sales . . ." has a problem, unless of course the author is purposely trying to emphasize a precipitous drop- as in the weight of lead.  I don't think so, though.  It's merely another example of how even those who are paid as writers are revealing how weak they are on basics.  Stealing from one of Paul Newman's films:  What we have here is a failure to communicate.

fools - anyone can make it in this country. don't like the job you have or how you are being treated? Go start your own business and treat your employees the way you think they should be treated. Get off your duff and do something for yourself. there isn't a government in the world that can take care of its population if all the people want is someone to take care of them.Who creates the wealth? go ahead and destroy the wealth builders in the US and see what the government can do for you. don't like your situation - don't look at me - I'm taking care of my family and responsibilies because I've worked hard and made sacrifices and paid for my mistakes! I didn't ask anyone to bail my rear end out. I worked harder and learned my lesson. I might just be an average wage earner - but I've overcome alot to get here and did it myself and are alot better off for it.

People keep using the decline in house prices as a benchmark and that is not the case. Houses have been over priced for the better part of a decade so these house were never really worth that much to begin with. The housing market has been over inflating itself, and now its time for a correction.

Summary-

1-If you bought a house in the last 8-10 years, you got screwed.

2- If you sold a house in the last 8-10 you made out like a fat rat

Years of giving the middle class 2-3% raises and subjecting them to double digit increases in medical, food, energy, etc. has taken it's toll.  Once the economy improves, hopefully Wall Street will be a little smarter in sharing their profits with the middle class.

The constant stream of negative doom and gloom articles does not help the situation.  It is becoming a vicious cycle.  People are in panic mode.  What are the creditentials of this author he looks like he is fresh out of college.

We lose our good jobs daily and expect to keep the economy rolling working at service jobs, not going to happen, especially now that all our equity and credit is gone, we have to support the economy on real wages now. That will be a suprise to the goverment hacks, but not to the middle class. the economy will just crash and burn untill we can make progress on jobs and pay.

There is so much to blame to go around.  We the people were stupid to fall for all the ads and hype in buying the big cars, houses, and latest junk.  How big of house do we need?  Why do we need new cars every other year?  Why do we need a 50" TV to replace the 42" TV?    

The government spent wildly for decades on socialist programs in this country and all over the globe.  The US cannot save the world or be body guards to countries.  The government turned away as banks lent money to millions of folks that had no business getting loans.  Our elected officials let this happen because they were getting millions in contribution money.  

It is time to wake up and take back our country.  Do not just whine about the government or big business.  Do something.  Quit electing the liars and crooks.  Demand that the crooks be removed from office and be investigated.  Do not spend and borrow money foolishly.  Getting this country back will take time and pain but it needs to be done now.  

spoata is right, joblo800 is right. It is intentional actions taken by the rich elite to destroy the middle class and the American way of life. It's time to give back in kind I say.

If we think it's bad now, wait until Obama becomes President and the Democrats take over both houses.  Raising taxes "only" on those making over $250,000 seems right to these bureaucrats  but these are still small businesses.  They are the businesses that are taking the risks and employing the American consumer.  When their owners decide it's better to retire, or that the extra work to expand isn't worth it because of the tax increases, watch out.  Human nature is to work for reward; if the reward is too small, very few will work for it.

The same argument applies to big businesses.  How many of you word for corporations?  How many shares of their stock do you own?  How many do you want to own if they can't pay dividends because all of their profit is feeding Obama's machine?  How many people will these corporations employee when investors aren't interested in their stock?

Democrats have always been about redistributing wealth.  Redistributing wealth is socialism folks.  I'm not using the term lightly.  Small doses of socialism are OK, especially in a robust economy.  The kind of socialistic increases Obama is proposing in the current economic crisis is going to be a disaster.  

If you lose your job because your employer cuts back, are you going to start your own business or go looking for somebody to pay you to help with their business?  Better hope there are some left.

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):