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The failure of the American consumer

Posted Oct 15 2008, 03:42 PM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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We're witnessing an epic demise of the American consumer. For the month of September, retail sales fell 1.2% -- the largest sales drop in three years and the third consecutive monthly decline.

The decline was lead by auto sales (down 3.8%), furniture (down 2.3%), and clothing (down 2.3%). The result was double the consensus estimate and brought the annual retail sales growth into negative territory with a 1% decline.

It looks like the situation is deteriorating quickly. Consider additional insight from Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. A few of their contacts remarked that sales tax receipts are "currently falling more sharply than they have in prior recessions (and from already recessionary levels), and comparisons continue to be to the 1990-91 recession, not 2001's more mild slump."

Another interesting observation is how growth in the International Council of Shopping Centers' sales categories have changed since retail sales peaked in 2006. Luxury stores have gone from year-over-year comparable store sales growth of nearly 7% to a negative 11% reading for September -- a swing of nearly 18%. Department and apparel stores have shown similar shifts. Meanwhile, discount stores and wholesalers remain buoyant. Obviously, a great consumer retrenchment is underway.

What's worrying is that we still don't know how the recent market sell-off affected consumer spending. Based on work by the ISI Group in New York, things are likely to get much worse as we enter the critical holiday shopping season.

If stocks stay at currently depressed levels, the market component of consumers' wealth would be down nearly 36% year-over-year. When combined with an estimated 7.4% fall in house prices, this could drive total consumer net worth down by a record 13.5% for the fourth quarter. Such a hit to consumer wealth would cut total economic growth by 1.3%. Such a decline would help drive unemployment from the current 6.1% reading to ISI's dour 8.5% estimate as consumer spending dries up further.

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Comments

 

I aggree with Joe Hamm. This started with 9/11 and the big hit on our economy. The false influx of (cheap) money, easy lending rules, the call for the consumer to bail us out. Use your home to get money to spend. It will go up in value. GO SPEND! Meanwhile the people that attacked us sucked out our cash in oil revenues. And if they did not get our cash we sent it to China! If this is not a wake up call what is?

Mr. Mirhatdari,

To Quote..." What's worrying is that we still don't know how the recent market selloff affected consumer spending."  I would pose this question to you sir...."how do you think it has?"  If some organization just "stole" over a trillion dollars of your family's savings and it took you most of your natural life to earn that money, would you go out and redecorate? or buy a new car? or take a well deserved vacation? Since I actually paid attention in school, this one seems to be a "no brainer".

I don't even need to hire the services of ISI Group or any other third party to realize that spending, will more than likely, come to a screeching halt. This entire scenario is nothing more than a simple supply and demand situation. If there is no supply of money,     how can there be any demand of goods?

THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP THE ECONOMY MOVING IS TO SPEND.  HOW CAN ANYONE SAVE ANYHOW. ITS COSTING ME $50 TO GET TO WORK EACH WEEK, $38 FOR MY SHARE OF MEDICAL INSURANCE, AND WHO KNOWS WHAT FOR HEAT YET.  i KEEP READING HOW INCOME IS GOING UP. WHEN'S THE LAST TIME YOU GOT A RAISE ?

AND THE MEDIA IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE.  REMEMBER THE TOILET PAPER SHORTAGE ?  EVERYONE RAN OUT AND BOUGHT TONS OF THE STUFF AND MADE A SHORTAGE.  JUST KEEP PREDICTING GLOOM AND DOOM AND WE'LL START KNITTING OUR OWN CLOTHES AGAIN. MAYBE WE CAN ALL MOVE TO THE WOODS AND LIVE LIKE THE PIONEERS OFF THE LAND AGAIN. CHUCK HUNTING AND FISHING LICENSES. THIS IS SURVIVAL.

WE NEED TO GET MORE JOBS SO PEOPLE THAT WANT TO WORK ( AND THERE ARE MANY THAT STILL DO ) CAN WORK AND PAY THEIR BILLS.  THOSE COMPANIES THAT TOOK THE JOBS OUT OF THE COUNTRY LOST PART OF THEIR MARKET HERE IN AMERICA. IS IT ANY WONDER PEOPLE FLOCK TO WAL - MART ?  YOU CAN ONLY BUY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD OR YOU DO WITHOUT.

What do most of you think regarding "Joe Sixpack" vs "Joe the Plumber", as to which is the most credible?  What a joke it is for the republican party TRYING to play to the common man.  To act as if they really care about the "little guy" is against their mantra.

Fact is - the American consumer is doing that which needs doing at present - cutting back big syle. Kudos to the people for being intelligent enough and sensible enough to do such. The bad news is the American economy is based on "Spend," "Spend," "Spend." The result is, when the public gets smart with thir buck it unravels those million dollar per week executive salaries.

I want to echo the major causes of our problems being discussed here. It begins and ends with the Federal government. They write the rules and pick which ones to abide by.

All of us have the PERFECT opportunity to express our disgust in 19 days. Imagine their shock when every single member of the House is booted out for gross incompetence. The message to the remaining members of Congress would be clear and concise. You failed.

I'm so tired of being pushed around by a government that clearly has no respect or regard for the taxpayers of this country. It's time to push back.

Most people feel better when blame can be placed on one entity or another; We feel we've exposed the big bad and we can go on with our day-to-day lives. It's government's fault... no! it's big business' fault... no! your're wrong, it's the consumer's fault.... nope, the voter's ushered in the baddies...

Almost every post I've read so far has had very valid ideas and reasonings why it's either the government's, busness' or consumer's/voter's fault. I submit to you that it's a combination of all of the above...

I can tell you first hand that a goodly part of my financial problems is of my own doing. I have recognized that and started a few years ago to face each creditor and repent of the behaviors that led me to my problem. I'm not an angel today even, however, I am more conscious of my spending behaviors and ensure that I live below my means now so I can repay my debts from years living beyond my means.

Add to the obstacles I face trying to redeem myself from those years or irresponsibility, the rising gas/energy and food prices and it's been a tough year for financial redemption.

I have friends who have lost their jobs to outsourcing.

I have friends who are losing their homes because the values plummeted while the ARM's have gone up... I won't comment on their role of responsibility...

I can see how the government... both parties mind you... not just either rep. or dem., has left us holding the bag.

It's painfully obvious that big businesses don't care about the little consumer even though it is all of the little consumers in chorus that keep big business floating.

The media is always looking for the next big thing to sensationalize and the economy has been fodder... even better still that it is an election year!  Woo Hoo! Just more poo to fling...

There needs to be a happy balance (but one we'll never achieve) between social programs and helping the businesses... And to both areas there needs to more stringent controls to keep the ones that aren't showing improvement, merit, or attempts at improvement from leeching from the programs set in place to help them.

and there will be more guilty parties identified as we all bare our thoughts to this msg board. Will only one idea be right? no... but this string of messages is sure to get people thinking and THAT IS something that we do need right now... A country full of critical thinkers that won't be a herd of lemmings heading for a cliff.

Let democracy end and socialism begin, we'll all be fine then... LOL

Thank goodness Howard Hofelich, who commented yesterday (10/15/08)

at 4:24 pm, is not in the political arena....we don't need any more

hate nor bigotry in the system.

Enough Said,

Laura

Until we bring back the manufacturing plants that always produced good jobs, comsumers (we the people) will continue to decline. Manufacturing is the only thing that actually produces wealth that the service economy lives off of - not the other way around like we have it now.

This is how we grew from the late 30's till the 1990-91 recession. after that ,it's mostly been all smoke & mirrors and nobody gets their hands dirty or oily anymore. We also can't expect American Co's to compete against cheaper imports and have the money in the till to pay higher wages and health insurance.

Until we scrap these trade deals the give the American economy away, we will continue to see a declining middle class which is the backbone of any country's economy and well being.

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