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Will this be a depression?

Posted Oct 07 2008, 11:28 AM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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Americans sure are in a gloomy mood. A recent poll finds that 60% of us believe that a full-blown depression is somewhat or very likely.

Since a depression has no official qualities (besides being worse than recession), the pollsters cited a few economic measures from the 1930s during their survey: A 25% unemployment rate, widespread bank failures, and millions of people homeless and unable to afford basic necessities. Other measures of consumer sentiment corroborate these findings.

Before you blow all this off as the irrational rumblings of an unhappy electorate, know that Wall Street's economists are starting to see a similarly dour picture. David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch penned the following comment in a note to clients on Monday:

"It truly is a modern-day depression, in our view -- what else do you call it when an entire industry vanishes (investment banks) in less than a year; the ranks of the unemployed soared more than 30%; and nearly one in ten homeowners with a mortgage are either in arrears or foreclosure?"

While a repeat of the Great Depression isn't likely -- automatic stabilizers like welfare and unemployment insurance are in place, the government and the Federal Reserve are accommodating -- the present situation needs to be put into perspective. After the successive failures of two of the largest asset bubbles in history, our present situation is an outlier; that is, it isn't a normal cyclical downturn of the business cycle.

Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner is looking at two "adverse feedback loops" that could pull things lower:

"Spreading weakness beyond housing to consumer and capital spending, and from a global slowdown to U.S. exports, will promote further declines in employment, in turn pressuring income, consumers, and their lenders. A second vicious circle runs from tighter credit to a weaker economy, then to a deterioration in credit quality, in turn increasing reluctance to lend."

The depth and length of this downturn now depends on the policy response out of Washington D.C. and the willingness of foreign governments and investment pools to fund the resulting budgetary deficit.

(Disclosure: I don’t control a position in any of the companies mentioned)

Related reading:

The Fed may go beyond banks, bailout businesses

So the bailout passed. Now what?

Worst crisis since Great Depression?

We didn't learn the lessons of 1907

Comments

 

This started when Clinton signed a bill to repeal the Stegall Glass Act of 1933 to deregulate.  Both parties are responsible.  Deregulation and giving loans to undeserving people which originated with Barney Frank caused our problems.  Corporate greed and crooked politicians who care nothing other than retaining their cushy jobs in Washington.  Most of them are millionaires and don't really give a hoot about the middle class.  

We can thank greed and corruption for our pain, and it will be pain before its all over. Greenspan started it all with his cheap money and then the Glass-Steigel act was abolished ending regulation and Barney Frank, and Chirs Dodd and Chris Cox were abysmally deficient to the point of illegal in their oversight of the problem.  The economy and the market will continue to fall until the housing market stabilizes which will be around 2012 because the last of the 5 year ARMs will reset then. Cyclical events such as the consumer cutting back on spending will eliminate jobs as companies scale back to survive and send unemployment higher which will in turn perpetuate the events. Congress needs to be limited to 1 4 or 6 years term only and that way they wont be so interested in developing close lobbyist ties or worried about their reelection and concentrate on the problems of the nation instead. It doesnt matter who wins the election because our problems are too advanced to fix.  The system will collapse and we will build a new one from the ground up. Nothing the Fed or the treasury or IMF or the European Banks do will stop our downward spiral.  Have cash , food and weapons ready when things turn ugly.  God help us all.

The goverment took  a couple days off while the econemy is going down the toilet. Both of them running for president continue with there own agenda. Nobody in this goverment cares about us little people. We the peolpe put these people in these positions and they do nothing we need them to. Try calling to talk to one of them and you will see just how little they care.

@Tom:

"The Reps. have been in control of Congress for the last six years"?? Sounds like you take your facts from the O'Biden fact book. Fannie and Freddie, the stars of the socialist universe, started and sustained this meltdown, and the Dems spent $10 million lobbying against changes and oversight of these bullies because their friends run them.

Put your money into a self directed IRA... find someone your want to mentor you, and watch your money grow.

Hey Anthony, thanks for the article...we definately need more of this! At least this way we can compound the real problems with  perceived problems and drive the economy right into the toilet!  

While the current economic climate seems dismal, I am very frustrated that we continue to hear about a $700 billion bailout package and really have never been told what WE are paying for in this political leveraging.  I believe that the US government did whatever it took, including risky loans and leveraged borrowing, to keep the US on track after 09/11/01.  But the Bush administration's continued patchwork of stimulus packages, lower interest rates and allowing white collar crimes at AIG, Lehman Brothers and others has resulting in all of us having to bear the brunt of this mess.

It is going to be a bumpy ride for many people.  I for one did not take out an ARM, buy a home that I truly could not afford or spend every penny that I make and have to live the "American Dream".  Therefore, I think it is wrong for the government to allow these corporate leaders to take big bonuses and salaries while making me pay to bail out their companies.  The same applies for those people that bought homes they couldn't afford and now may get a reprieve from this "bailout".

Those of us that didn't make all of the mistakes that have resulted in this mess need to step to the plate and continue to live our lives as we have been during the build up of this crisis.  If some (a majority) of us continue to be positive in the marketplace and have some confidence in some aspect of the US government's abilities, albeit is very difficult to do at this point, the US economic barometer will begin to move back in the right direction.

FDR gave us the New Deal.  Modern day Democrats led by Barnie Frank, Chris Dodd, and Charles Shumer have given us the Raw Deal.  Read up on the whole history of FANNIE MAE and the recent regulatory efforts of the Republicans, and you will know what this means.  If Obama wins this thing, we will have gotten what we disserve for being complacent and allowing ourselves to be hoodwinked by the liberal media. Just because Bush is an imbecile is no reason to vote for Obama.  McCain may not be charasmatic, but at least you know what you are getting.  Don't be fooled.  Obama has a socialist agenda, and he is just licking his chops to inherit the White House at the perfect time to unveil it.  Because of the economic turmoil, the country will be vulnerable and receptive to "Change".  God help us.  

We are falling into depression because the fundamentals of the economy have been undermined for quite some time now. A large ship takes a while to sink... and when you consumers undermined our nations ability to poriduce instead of consume, this is the end product. We are nowhee near the bottom so dont lie to yourself or others here.

Heres how it happened...

All that foreign made garbage youve been buying and driving the last 20 years ... its HURT our manufacturers beyond reason. Sure you consumers didnt feel it while you committed the sins, but ask people who had jobs at GM and Ford, theyve been feeling it for decades, as our politicians allowed UNFAIR TRADE practices to destroy the life-line (engine) of our nation. The more foreign made crap you bought, from TVs to autos, the more YOU accellerated our demise as a manufacturing power. It was sad when Curtis Mathis finally went out of buisness. They were the last american made TV. And they made a damn good product. Because of UNFAIR TRADE, the japaneese were able to out price them and thats why their TVs cost more than the Jap and korean models. We had amassed great wealth from the WW2 years until the 1970s, based on our manufacturing power. It has taken 20 years to bring our manufacturing might to it knees, and the power to add weath to our economy was taken down with it.

This isnt rocket science, its basic math. The same math half you college educated morons were too smart to understand. You were to preoccupied with saving the world, to save your own. Now the grim reaper has come to take whats left as you squirm in discomfort. We WILL NOT recover from this as painlessly or as quickly as we did in the 1930's ... we have built up too much overhead for that. We dont have the quality of persons we had then. We have a bunch of self serving crybaby brats now compared to what we had then.

We have cultivated a feild of daisies and Tulips (Two Lips)  when we should have grown an orchard instead.

So prepare for a long long drop into the abyss, the strong of heart shall survive, and the weak shall perish like the delicate flowers they are.

When oh when are people going to wake up and realize that this 2 party system needs to go away.  We are the governent, not some party.  I don't like the Republicans or the Demcrates, they are actually splitting this country apart.  If there were ever a time when everyone needs to work together it is now.  If we don't I hope all of you can learn a new language really fast, like Chineese, Russian or Arabic because that's where we are headed.

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