Crude will rise again, soon - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Crude will rise again, soon

Posted Sep 16 2008, 06:34 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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Oil has hit a phase where many analysts believe that it could move below $90 and stay there. If this happens the boon to the economy would be considerable. Lower oil prices would go a long way toward saving the auto and airline industries. It could also undermine one of the key elements of inflation.

This dreamy view of crude's future however is unlikely to materialize. The price of oil will rise again, and the events that will produce this reversal are ready to unfold. The market has not yet focused on the impending disasters that are likely to occur before the end of the year.

Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. The rebels there have spent their time randomly and stupidly attacking civilian targets. Someone holding a Ph.D in economics has moved into their midst and told them the the country's oil infrastructure is the key to its financial health.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has begun to bomb pipelines around the nation's large oil fields. Because the transportation system runs over thousand of miles protecting it is logistically impossible. It seems likely that in a short time a systematic series of attacks will cut a portion of the Nigeria's capacity.

Venezuela looks just as volatile. Hugo Chavez, the president for life, gives all the appearances of dementia. He has booted the US ambassador and nationalized much of the nation's oil and production operations. It is not clear that he has the engineering expertise within his borders to keep the system pumping crude efficiently.

Chavez has a new habit of spending time with the Russians, another oil exporter that has hard feelings toward the US and EU. According to The Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Putin dispatched a few bombers to Venezuela for a visit."It was the first time since the Cold War that military jets sent from Moscow touched down in the Western Hemisphere."

Venezuela may cut its own throat by reducing production to punish the US, but its government is not long on logic or foresight.

US oil refineries have dodged two hurricanes that made their way into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm season has two months to go. Luck is luck and never stays in one place for too long.

Crude is going higher and going higher soon.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Comments

 

What if the moon goes out of orbit and crashes into New York

With the Reagan administration, the US did a 180 on energy policy, scrapping almost all investment and leadership in the direction of renewable energy and energy efficiency initiated by Carter.  Two principal, direct results of those changes in national policy have been to bring us to this crises of precarious economic dependence on oil -- foreign or domestic -- and a probable global ecological crisis to boot.  The point on the Venezualan government being "not long on logic or foresight" is valid, but we should not be too quick to throw stones.  Let me also throw out there the notion that pure markets also have neither logic nor foresight (nor conscience).

This is the dumbest & weakest 'what if?' article ever. You forgot to mention what if gravity stopped working as well and how that would add at least an extra dollar to a barrel of crude.

Whoever wrote this article must have been asleep for 2 weeks.  If Saudi Arabia follows through and leaves OPEC afer walking out of the OPEC meeting last week and saying they are leaving OPEC, $90 a barrel looks awfully high.

stop being chicken little and let us in the trucking and construction industry enjoy our little breather   although i wont be happy till diesel falls below 3 at the pump     (keeping fingers crossed)

your an unamerican ass

Crude will not rise. The global economy can not withstand oil prices above 80 dollars a barrel. High oil prices is one of the main causes of the inflation that we experience in our present economy. Oil producing nations such as saudi arabia are aware that high crude prices hurt oil consumption therefore affecting their economy as well.

Crude is headed towards $70 and the 1st quarter of 2009 will see a dramatic turn around in our economy. Not only are you a dick, you are a stupid dick. Why don't you go and live with the Ruskies?

Of course, at some time in the not too distant future oil prices will rise again. Though not necessarily for the reasons mentioned here. Many experts think that we are at or near peak oil production. Peak oil doesn't mean that we will have no oil, but it does mean that oil production will flatten out and then begin to decline. As oil production declines the, oil-based economy will contract. (Some other part of the economic system such as the coal-based economy may expand -at least temporarily.) One consequence of being at or near peak oil is that there is no slack in the oil production system and any disruption at all can cause oil prices to spike.

Latent cuts in fed rates,winter round the corner,downgrading on corporate credit ratings, exposed leverage in lending institutions, downturn in housing markets,small businesses being targeted as capital cows by their loanmasters and the gretest depression about to beset us since the 1920s. I'm looking forward to the comforts endured during WW2, who's worried about oil prices anyway? With consumers unable to afford it, supply and demand will keep the price low- problem starts when the nation runs out of cash.

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