Credit card companies in a heap of trouble - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

Credit card companies in a heap of trouble

Posted Sep 04 2008, 10:31 AM by Andrew Horowitz
Rating:

For those of us who have been fighting with the credit card companies over the years, this may come as bittersweet news. The truth is that "trouble" is an understatement. The obvious problem is that the credit card loans are unsecured and as unemployment rises and the global economy slows, there will be losses incurred as consumers:

  1. Slow spending
  2. Are delinquent on payments
  3. Default on payments
  4. File for bankruptcy

According to Briefing.com, Lehman Brothers is (finally) reducing their estimates on three companies that continue to have difficulty: American Express, Capital One Financial and Discover Financial:

Lehman cut their ests and tgts on credit card issuers AXP, COF and DFS Before the open Lehman cut their estimates and targets on credit card issuers AXP, COF and DFS. Firm notes that economic trends including rising unemployment, home price depreciation, and liquidity restraints suggest that credit card delinquencies and charge-offs will rise through much of 2009 across the industry. Their fixed income research group expects credit card charge-offs among the major card trusts to reach a range of 7.25% to 7.50% versus 5.80% currently.

Their analysis suggests that by the end of 2009, AXP's U.S. Card charge-offs may reach 9.0% (excluding write-offs of fees and accrued interest ~8%) versus 6.5% 2Q08 NCOs (excluding accrued interest and fees ~5.3%), COF's U.S. Card charge-offs may reach 8.2% versus 6.3% 2Q08 NCOs, and DFS may show NCOs of 6.7% by the end of 2009 versus 5.0% 2Q08 NCOs.

They believe the downside risk to AXP is greater than the risk to DFS and COF, with DFS having the least risk. Firm cuts their AXP targetto $37 from $42, their COF targetto $46 from $57 and their DFS target to $16.50 from $18.

Beyond the companies discussed by Lehman, Visa and MasterCard are also showing that the global slowdown is no match for the notion that they will be exempt since they have no credit exposure. This has been a growing concern of mine and as such, MasterCard and Capital One are both short positions in my MSN Strategy Lab portfolio.

Watch for tomorrow's MSN Strategy Lab Journal update, when I will delve into the sector and explain the flawed concept and why both Visa and MasterCard are going to continue to fall.

Related Reading:

 

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold SHORT positions in securities mentioned as of the publish date.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and the founder of Horowitz & Company. He is also the author of the bestselling book, The Disciplined Investor . Check out his latest investment idea or listen in as he hosts, The Disciplined Investor Podcast.

Comments

 

I think Amex is in more trouble than people realize.  Have had a platinum card for 18 years, never missed a payment and they just slashed my credit limit in half.  If they are doing this to their best customers they must be going down the tubes.

I think Amex is in more trouble than people realize.  Have had a platinum card for 18 years, never missed a payment and they just slashed my credit limit in half.  If they are doing this to their best customers they must be going down the tubes.

I have a few cards which I can no longer afford to make the minmum monthy payments on  because last month I lost my job. I have been forced to prioritize and at the top of my list is my mortgage, then utilities and food. Everything else comes next provided there is any money left. I have been worried about not making the payments on my cards, but what else can I do?

My question is this..  If worse comes to worse and I let the cards go unpaid, what will happen? Will there be a point when I can offer them something to settle the debt and how does that work? Otherwise, if they sue me I understand they could garnish my wages but I am no longer employed, I have 0 dollars in a savings account and I owe  more on my home than it's actually worth? Could they tap into equity if I had it? What are the options besides bankruptcy and what can they (the CCC) do to me?

www.cbsnews.com/.../main2593558.shtml

I would really like to encourage people not to use credit cards, we used to put things on lay away:

now we are their slaves

I would like to add this very interesting article to the last post, please, pass this on the web to as may as possible

www.nypost.com/.../senate_targets_abuses_by_credit_card_firms_business_paul_tharp.htm

I was 16 two years ago and got Credit Limit of 30,000$ from AMEX!  

I agree that the credit card companies have made some bad decisions when it comes to defining the target audience for their offers, and they really nail people with ihgh fees when they fall behind on their payments.  At the same time, it's really getting tiresome to hear so many people placing blame with the big, bad banks as if it's exclusively their fault that people are in financial trouble.  

Regardless of what you're offered in the way of credit, YOU are making the decision to sign up for it.  Millions and millions of households signed up for way too much credit, and did not take the time to understand how it was going to affect them once they had to pay the piper.  All they cared about was that their friends were buying houses, nice cars, stereo systems, clothes, vacations, etc. so they deserved that too.  Before this latest recession shook millions in this country back to reality, the excessive consumption made me want to vomit.  

Finally, finally, people are coming to grips with the fact that you can't live a champaign lifestyle on $50,000 a year.  More people need to quit looking everywhere else to point a finger of blame, and look in the mirror.  We all need to become more accountable for our own finances, and make sure we understand what the heck we're getting ourselves into when we sign up for that HELOC or our 4th or 5th credit card.  

As recently as the 50's and 60's, the vast majority of households had only a mortgage for their house where they had put 25% or 30% down, and maybe a car loan.  That was it.  They lived within their means, and everything else was paid for with cash.  If you really want to put the big, bad credit card companies out of business, then stop using plastic to buy everything, and they'll be out of business because they won't have any users of their plastic!  But maybe that makes too much sense...

Credit card companies are ripping the consumers off.  Yes, we are the ones who signed up for these, but they take advantage of all of us by charging too much interest, finance charges, and high minimum payments.  Our cards would have been paid off years ago, if it had not been for their crooked tactics.  They keep the bulk of our payments, which in turns never lowers the balance only by a few dollars.  They need to be stopped in their tracks.  I suggest everyone send a letter to www.whitehouse.gov, and tell them to do something with these banks.  They have robbed us long enough. There will be no spending for any of us until "We the people of the U.S." are given back the money that was taken from us.  They need to cut our balances in half, they've gotten enough.

I was 2 days late on my bank of america cc and they doubled my interest rate.

If my customers paid me on time I could make my payments on time. So now that my payment is double can I charge my customers double? Not   For I would be out of business. I now call Bank Of America ,  Bank of North Korea because they dont understand either.

The message is clear gov. will bailout

big Banks,air lines,auto industries,ect.!! But willnot the honest pepole ,Workers!!. They need to wipeout all CCdept and let the companys go broke. They could also take the 780 billion and give each head of house 200thousand and let them take care of the whole eco.,any one making over 1million should not recieveany.    

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):