Credit card companies in a heap of trouble
Posted
Sep 04 2008, 10:31 AM
by
Andrew Horowitz
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For those of us who have been fighting with the credit card companies over the years, this may come as bittersweet news. The truth is that "trouble" is an understatement. The obvious problem is that the credit card loans are unsecured and as unemployment rises and the global economy slows, there will be losses incurred as consumers:
- Slow spending
- Are delinquent on payments
- Default on payments
- File for bankruptcy
According to Briefing.com, Lehman Brothers is (finally) reducing their estimates on three companies that continue to have difficulty: American Express, Capital One Financial and Discover Financial:
Lehman cut their ests and tgts on credit card
issuers AXP, COF and DFS Before the open Lehman cut their estimates and targets
on credit card issuers AXP, COF and DFS. Firm notes that economic trends
including rising unemployment, home price depreciation, and liquidity restraints
suggest that credit card delinquencies and charge-offs will rise through much of
2009 across the industry.
Their fixed income research group expects credit
card charge-offs among the major card trusts to reach a range of 7.25% to 7.50%
versus 5.80% currently.
Their analysis suggests that by the end of 2009, AXP's
U.S. Card charge-offs may reach 9.0% (excluding write-offs of fees and accrued
interest ~8%) versus 6.5% 2Q08 NCOs (excluding accrued interest and fees ~5.3%),
COF's U.S.
Card charge-offs may reach 8.2% versus 6.3% 2Q08
NCOs, and DFS may show NCOs of 6.7% by the end of 2009 versus 5.0% 2Q08 NCOs.
They believe the downside risk to AXP is greater than the risk to DFS and COF,
with DFS having the least risk. Firm cuts their AXP targetto $37 from $42, their
COF targetto $46 from $57 and their DFS target to $16.50 from $18.
Beyond the companies discussed by Lehman, Visa and MasterCard are also showing that the global slowdown is no match for the notion that they will be exempt since they have no credit exposure. This has been a growing concern of mine and as such, MasterCard and Capital One are both short positions in my MSN Strategy Lab portfolio.
Watch for tomorrow's MSN Strategy Lab Journal update, when I will delve into the sector and explain the flawed concept and why both Visa and MasterCard are going to continue to fall.
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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold SHORT positions in securities mentioned as of the publish date.
Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and the founder of Horowitz & Company. He is also the author of the bestselling book, The Disciplined Investor . Check out his latest investment idea or listen in as he hosts, The Disciplined Investor Podcast.