Credit card companies in a heap of trouble - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Credit card companies in a heap of trouble

Posted Sep 04 2008, 10:31 AM by Andrew Horowitz
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For those of us who have been fighting with the credit card companies over the years, this may come as bittersweet news. The truth is that "trouble" is an understatement. The obvious problem is that the credit card loans are unsecured and as unemployment rises and the global economy slows, there will be losses incurred as consumers:

  1. Slow spending
  2. Are delinquent on payments
  3. Default on payments
  4. File for bankruptcy

According to Briefing.com, Lehman Brothers is (finally) reducing their estimates on three companies that continue to have difficulty: American Express, Capital One Financial and Discover Financial:

Lehman cut their ests and tgts on credit card issuers AXP, COF and DFS Before the open Lehman cut their estimates and targets on credit card issuers AXP, COF and DFS. Firm notes that economic trends including rising unemployment, home price depreciation, and liquidity restraints suggest that credit card delinquencies and charge-offs will rise through much of 2009 across the industry. Their fixed income research group expects credit card charge-offs among the major card trusts to reach a range of 7.25% to 7.50% versus 5.80% currently.

Their analysis suggests that by the end of 2009, AXP's U.S. Card charge-offs may reach 9.0% (excluding write-offs of fees and accrued interest ~8%) versus 6.5% 2Q08 NCOs (excluding accrued interest and fees ~5.3%), COF's U.S. Card charge-offs may reach 8.2% versus 6.3% 2Q08 NCOs, and DFS may show NCOs of 6.7% by the end of 2009 versus 5.0% 2Q08 NCOs.

They believe the downside risk to AXP is greater than the risk to DFS and COF, with DFS having the least risk. Firm cuts their AXP targetto $37 from $42, their COF targetto $46 from $57 and their DFS target to $16.50 from $18.

Beyond the companies discussed by Lehman, Visa and MasterCard are also showing that the global slowdown is no match for the notion that they will be exempt since they have no credit exposure. This has been a growing concern of mine and as such, MasterCard and Capital One are both short positions in my MSN Strategy Lab portfolio.

Watch for tomorrow's MSN Strategy Lab Journal update, when I will delve into the sector and explain the flawed concept and why both Visa and MasterCard are going to continue to fall.

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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold SHORT positions in securities mentioned as of the publish date.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and the founder of Horowitz & Company. He is also the author of the bestselling book, The Disciplined Investor . Check out his latest investment idea or listen in as he hosts, The Disciplined Investor Podcast.

Comments

 

I think this is great for these companies that give cards out to anyone.A real good example of this was when our son,whom was a total of six years old,received an application for a credit card.I would really like to know who runs these promotional programs for cards.I really think that it would be great to see a couple of these companies to take a hit,but this will not be possible,due to theinsurance coverage they have on these cards.But they are the reason the credit problems arise in the USA.

i think the credit card companies should work with the customer any way that is possible and take somekind of payment instead of nothing at all and stop asking for bigger payments when you can't even make the small ones   something to think about  . instead of people having to go thru bankruptcy and then the companies loose all........

No surprise that American Express is the potential leader in charge-offs, given that they historically have been exceptionally tough on struggling cardholders when compared to other issuers.

Andrew:

Really like your post.  I think you are on point with the card companies and the impact of future charge-off rates.  To add to your notion that the card companies are in trouble we at www.creditcardindustryresearch.com recently posted this brief on the ripple effect of the credit crisis and that not only will card companies be impacted with loss provision but the increased credit losses will drive up cost of funds:

Post -

"Our research team has predicted for some time that credit would be the biggest concern for the U.S. card issuing business.  In some recent developments our analysis is now pointing to a ripple effect in the P&Ls of these businesses due to the credit crisis.  All the attention the industry is getting from escalating loss rates has led to a shortage of financing options.  As a result card issuers are raising the stakes to get investors and their cost of funds is rising.  This is especially the case for non-banking card issuers who lack access to consumer deposits.

The most recent example was American Express (AXP) who recently issued corporate and securitized debt at historically high spreads.  AXP issued $2B A+ rated 5 year fixed corporate debt at 7.3%, which was 420bps above 5 year treasury.  If this trend continues it will put significant pressure on AXP’s cost of funds.  This “secondary effect” of the credit crisis will damage their consumer and corporate charge card portfolios - parts of the business which to date have not be adversely effected by the credit losses.    It would seem that AXP has foreseen this funding problem as today they announced the issuance of American Express Credit Corporation InterNotes®.  InterNotes® are unsecured medium-term notes due nine months or more from the issue date for sale to retail investors and will generally be offered at par in $1,000 increments. These notes are claimed to provide individual investors a variety of rates, maturity dates and interest payment options.  The new product is a means to access deposits from individuals.  This is a clear sign that AXP is looking for diverse and less costly options when it comes to funding their business.  What needs to be determined now is what type of demand is out there for this product and at what rate will AXP offer the notes?  To that point we are skeptical that AXP will be able to generate the scale from these notes to truly diversify their funding program.

Issuer Trends"

creditcardindustryresearch.com/.../credit-ripple-effect

This is the just rewards that they so deserve. Most CCC give cards to anyone and when they are not looking jack the interest rate up from the 12% to 26-30%. I cannot wait until the CC reform is through our senate. But then again, the lobbiest I am sure will hold it up forever. Amazing that the government is for the people by the people but big business gets what they want.

I think that a lot of people are missing the point.  I have credit cards that have been paid down to zero.  If I don't spend the CC companies do not make money.  AXP and other CC companies are not only suffering because of consumers.  They are also suffering because companies are also cutting back on spending or cannot make payments.  There are no more credit cards being issued to employees (managers) and there are managers (CEOs, Directors, etc) being laid off.  So there goes most of the top dollar spending.  People are cutting back on flights, parties, bonuses, healthcare, gas, etc.  We are just now seeing the domino effect and it's about to get worst.

They are finally getting what they deserve.  They have fleesed the American public for years with scandulous charges, overcharges, and interest changes.  The Democrat congress gave them a license to steal in 2006 with the new  bankruptcy law.  They had no mercy on their clients as they cheated them at every turn.  Let them all go broke.  When a person needs money go to your local personal banker and get your money without worrying about it.

It will become harder to get a Credit Card from American Express.  

If you think American Express is going to go down over this...you are wrong.  LESS credit cards will go out, consumers who once received easy credit will not receive credit any more.  People will not be able to buy, the economy will slow down to a halt, and everyone will suffer.  If people don't want to pay the high interest rates, well they are going to get their wish.   I just hope they don't want to buy anything new in the next year, and they have enough money for food and gas!!No more luxury goods no more small business investment on credit, sounds horrible to me. Yah we really showed American Express, we got them...

HSBC  has got to be the worst credit card/bank company out there.

Their tactics and abuse of customers is unreal.

I advise anyone not to use them.

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