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S&P 500 primed for a fall?

Posted Sep 02 2008, 02:40 PM by Kim Peterson
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Tuesday's "uh-oh" story of the day comes from Bloomberg, which points out that shares of companies making up the S&P 500 Index are trading at 25.8 times profits, the highest valuation in five years. The last time that happened was in 2001, right before the dot-com bubble burst and U.S. companies lost about half their market value.

The problem, according to money managers, is that analysts are too optimistic about profits. Companies won't be able to reach the numbers analysts are predicting, and the high valuations are going to tumble. Analysts have overreached on profit in the last four quarters, according to Bloomberg.

"The fundamentals are going to be poor, earnings are going to be bad, and there are going to be more huge writedowns," money manager Philip Orlando said. "We think stocks probably need to work 5 to 10 percent lower over the next month or two.''

For the S&P 500 companies, analysts are expecting aggregate earnings of $21.69 a share in this current quarter and $24.62 in the fourth quarter. That's 3.9% and 62% higher than last year's third and fourth quarter, respectively. (No, that 62% is not a typo).

But some stocks are trading below the average valuation, including Gap, AK Steel, and Lexmark International. And some investment banks are telling clients to buy stock, expecting an earnings upturn.

Comments

 

HAHAHAHA!!! McCain's VP has two years experience.  HAHAHAHA!! How many years does OBAMA haaaaaave!!!?HAHAHAHA!

Well, ok. Mmmm, just do nothing! Let's see...your return will be? Mmmm....NOTHING! No risk, no chance of winning OR losing, wow! now that's an exciting life! Let's all move to Iowa and watch the Corn grow! Brown shoes, old car, old furniture, just ....OLD!

I'm so tired of doom and gloom all the time from reporters.  If we would focus on the positive, I believe the market would be at 20,000 on the way up to 40,000 instead of reversing to 2-3 years ago.  Yeah there are issues, but there are also many strengths in our corporate and financial system.  So, I'm with those who are buying and not selling.

"Overall consumer spending is still deep in the doldrums, with 44% of U.S. respondents saying they'll spend less money over the next 90 days -- one point worse than our July survey and the lowest percentage we’ve registered in more than four years. Just 24% say they’ll spend more -- two points worse than previously.

"Respondents report continued dissatisfaction with their personal finances. Just 10% say they are very satisfied with their financial situation -- one point worse than in our July survey -- which is the lowest reading since we began asking this question in September 2007."

This research is confirmed by third-party data. The University of Michigan's survey of consumer confidence reported a near-50-year low and the lowest-ever (since 1946) consumer attitude rating about their own personal finances, with 57% of respondents to the survey saying their personal financial situation was deteriorating.

Nine of 10 people responding the U of M survey said the economy was in recession mode in June, and two-thirds expect this slump to continue for several years. What are the biggest losers in planned purchases? Vehicles and household durables including furniture, appliances and home electronics -- the survey results for this category were the lowest in a generation.

I say wake up guys

When there is blood on the street it is time to buy, hedge funds are closing and selling off their last quality assets.  It's true the Dow will probably bottom out around 10,600 but what is another 5-10% if you are buying quality companies.  The dollar will strengthen over the next couple of years adding oomph to the market.  The sky is not falling, dollar cost average on the way down and the way back up and you will be fine.

Folks, sorry to say... this article is right on. The market is greatly overvalued. One thing people need to keep in mind, this is an election year, and being so the fund managers and ultra wealthy will try to pump up the market to give the illusion that the economy is doing well so their minions can get re-elected to insure their tax cuts and other perks go through. Beware of the mighty fall coming in Oct. or Nov.

Russell,

If you have all the answers, why aren't you in office instead of writing insipid posts?

Russel- Wake up........Obama only has 4 years experience in the senate, the senate where they don't have to adhere to budgets unlike a governor.  Let me remind you that Obama walked into that position because the person running against himwas indicted 5 weeks before the election.  Hillary wasn't the answer either.  If you want a terrorist for your president then the choice is easy........i give you the ttrue puppet of the far left, Mr. Obama...the great community organizer, please.  Both parties should be ashamed of the candidates that they brought forward.

"to optimistic about profits" AKA LYING  .We alllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll know the numbers are overinflated.America isnt exactly the back bone of moral responsibility........

When in doubt, take a walk around the block or rather the mall (like Peter Lynch would have). Almost 70% of the US economy (the consumer) is tapped out. Add to this credit crunch, high energy (gas, utilities) and high inflation (real inflation, that is) and you have a recipe for a building disaster.

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