Yahoo's stock: Back to pre-Microsoft levels - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Yahoo's stock: Back to pre-Microsoft levels

Posted Aug 22 2008, 04:37 AM by Charley Blaine
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Here's something the top management of Yahoo may wish nobody noticed.

The stock is now lower than its $19.18 close on Jan. 31, the day before Microsoft launched its $33-a-share, $44.6 billion offer for the Internet company. (Microsoft is the publisher of MSN Money.)

Yahoo closed Thursday at $19.11. On Wednesday, it closed at $19.17.

While Yahoo can say it fought off Microsoft and a potential proxy fight from activist Carl Icahn, the victory has been costly. And not just because the company spent $36 million waging the fight.

Since peaking at $29.98 on Feb. 14, Yahoo shares have fallen 36.3%. Its market capitalization has dropped from $46.7 billion to about $26.6 billion. The stock is down 18% on the year and 56% from its close on Jan. 9, 2006, its high after the dot-com bust.

Founders Jerry Yang and David Filo saw the value of their holdings in the company jump $863 million and $584 million, respectively, between Jan. 31 and Feb. 14. All of those gains have disappeared. (But fear not. Filo's stake is still worth $1.53 billion; Yang's is worth $1.03 billion.)

Web measuring firm comScore reported Thursday that Yahoo’s share of the search market in the United States declined to 20.5% in July from 20.9% in June. In that period, Google’s market share rose by the same amount to 61.9%. Microsoft was third, with an 8.9% share of queries, down from 9.2% in June.

And it is still losing key executives to other companies.

The question that investors still with Yahoo (an awful lot of shareholders in January have sold) have to ask themselves is whether Yahoo can deliver enough innovation to generate revenue and profits to justify giving up a 72% premium to its Jan. 31 closing price.

To be sure, as The New York Times noted, Yahoo is trying new things. It has an ad deal with Google. On Wednesday, the company announced a partnership with Intel to bring interactivity to television sets. Last week, it rolled out new services for mobile phone developers and users.

But the announcements have done nothing for the stock price. Yahoo management insists that patience will pay off.

If there's any solace for a Yahoo shareholder, it's this: Google is down nearly 30% on the year. Microsoft is down 24% on the year and still down 16.6% since it launched its Yahoo offer.

Comments

 

Jerry Yang and David Filo are getting what they deserve. we'll see $10/share in 2009!

The stock price is truly reflective of BAD management.  It will likely decline further.

should of taken the money and started a new company. however, billionaires don't like to be out spent or told what to do it 's the average person that owned a couple of hundred shares that got hurt if they didn't sell .. but what do yang and filo care, it's their toy ...

So, what is the target price to buy?  And when?

No, the recent fluctuation in the Yahoo stock price is reflective of overhyped speculation caused by the Microsoft bid. This meteoric rise was in no way fueld by actual numbers.  Now that it firmly appears that Microsoft will not take over, the stock price has returned to its original position.

Yahoo only has 20% market share. If Bill Gates wanted to buy them he would have wrote a check. He is only worth $60 BILLION. He knows Yahoo is DOOMED. Remember he could buy and sell Yang and Filo six times over. I give Microsoft the edge on this one. Yahoos stock will see at least $15 a share and then you will see a very hostile take over and the shareholders will not take no for an answer. And if they do, the stock will go to $10.00. Google will bury this sad story called Yahoo.

I hope Yang  and Filo read this, you guys got to "KNOW WHEN TO HOLD THEM AND YOU GOT TO KNOW WHEN TO FOLD THEM". AND IT SEEMED LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO FOLD THEM WAS AT $33.00 A SHARE. WHAT GREAT MANAGERS OF BUSINESS THESE GUYS ARE. REMEMBER DOT.COM DAYS. "YESTERDAY I WAS A   28 YEAR OLD MILLIONAIRE, AND TODAY I AM 28". TAKE A PROFIT .

Quite frankly, it doesn't matter whether or not Microsoft acquires or does'nt acquire Yahoo!  At this point, both of them combined account for less than 50% of the dominant search market share by commanded by Google.  Their shares are going to dwindle even further as more and more cell phone carriers make Google their default search engine (ie: Apple's I-Phone, Verizon, etc.).  Yahoo and MSN's inferior search engines are ultimately doomed to a slow and agonizing death at the hands of Google.

Boy, did Terry Semel know when to bail out of Yahoo!  Yang has offered no substantive program for building shareholder value.  This is a very good example of why individual investors should not hold individual stocks.  You are outgunned.  ETF's and well managed mutuals are a better bet, reducing exposure to bad management like Yang

my money is on CUIL......today I am 41 and tomorrow i will be a 41 yr old millionare!

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