Two opinions on Garmin shares - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
Search Top Stocks:

Two opinions on Garmin shares

Posted Jul 31 2008, 01:15 PM by Kim Peterson
Rating:
Filed under: ,

Navigation device maker Garmin hit a 52-week low this week after the company said it will delay its new cell phone, called Nuvifone, until next year. Garmin had been trying to get Nuvifone out before the holidays. The company also missed expectations on quarterly sales and profit and lowered guidance for the year.

As I've said before, Garmin's days as a high-flying stock are over. This company is being hammered by falling margins, economic turmoil, nimble rivals and by GPS-enabled cell phones taking away from market share. Garmin must retrench and figure out a new strategy; the question is what kind of company will it become? 

Garmin's announcement disappointed investors who viewed Nuvifone as the starting point for Garmin's strike back against new cell phones with built-in GPS navigation. Garmin itself had pegged Nuvifone as part of a strategic shift away from its traditional GPS devices, which have been declining in price and hurting margins. Shares are up less than 1% today to $35.28. A year ago they were at $99.

At Seeking Alpha, two posters have different opinions on Garmin. Matthew Rafat bought shares at $36, and said Garmin could have some unexpected upside if oil prices are abnormally high and if the dollar firms up.

But Greg Feirman questions whether Garmin has lost its direction, and says he's not buying any shares yet. "It could be that its business is under so much pressure from the economy, competition and saturation that it still has a ways further to fall," he writes.

I admire Garmin for trying to reinvent itself and innovate in new areas. The Nuvifone is a good start, but it's been delayed by the technical demands of phone carriers. If Garmin gives us a sophisticated, top-notch device that can compete in today's aggressive smartphone market, a small delay won't matter.

Related reading:

Garmin falls from its pedestal

Bummer year for Garmin

Consumer electronics disaster ahead, analyst predicts

Garmin trades all over the map

 

 

Comments

 

There are two issues with GRMN:

1) Biggest part of their earnings come from auto-devices, and we know car sales are declining (though GPS devices for cars sales are growing);

2) GPS is not a 'hard-to-enter' industry, this was just proved by Apple.

I doubt Nuvifone will change the trend, rather all other mobile phones will incorporate GPS in near future (Nokia to be next). GRMN can only take a piece of the pie.

GRMN needs a concept of there future business. They may continue to be manufacturing company, then no super-performance to be expected. If they change the buziness model to service (GPS device to become a map, Google, Yellow Pages, credit card and phone all in one) then they may get another jump in growth.

garmin is traped in a traditional tech niche from which it will probably not be able to escape.

Look at any embedded design magazine and you will see ad upon ad for GPS subsystems that can be easily packed by multiple phone vendors (who are their niche's subject matter experts) into any one of their products.

Now garmin wants to go compete in a space it's never been a part of before?  Good luck with that.  Even if they manage to buy a cell phone company, now they've got to go compete in an unfamiliar market.  Recipe for disaster (the person at garmin who made the decision to try to buy a cell phone maker should be fired).

The age of the stand-alone GPS receiver is dead.  If you GPS receiver doesn't integrate with an existing product and communicate its information to as many device as possible over wireless and wired networks, you're selling a door stopper.

I can't believe the negativity around GRMN but i love it. Does anyone think that any company leads GRMN is quality and performance? Does anyone think all people will use GPS more or less in the future? Do you realize that GRMN has a PE of 8 and 50% of domestic share and 20% on International? ..Don't be lemmings. This has taken a 72% haircut from it's high. Do you think it will hit $20.00 with a 8 PE?

People fail to use their brains. I bought 110K of GRMN last week. You all keep talking it down, and I'll buy more.

Flight over the Pacific C-130...70's...radio thru speakers..Air Force flight xxx this is United flight yyy..just to let you know, you are 400 miles off course. The sextant is dead, the navigator everywhere soon to follow..there's a Garmin taped to the windshield now making dots all over the world. Somethings gonna happen every few years now where a lot of people lose money in the market..then a year or so later..a few people make a lot of money. Do you think the biggy's really mind when something messes this monster up? Turn left next block.

Hi, Kim.

Please don't worry about the ridiculously llow two-star rating my fellow readers gave your story about General Motors trying to sell its Hummer brand monster

gas guzzler vehicles to a Chinese company -- it'a an excellent story, but unfortunately my fellow readers seem to be choosing style over substance.

I'm a political columnist for the Allston-Brighton Tab weekly newspaper in Boston.

Since we have a lot of recent immigrants from Asia  in our neighborhood, we might

be able to get a fresh angle on the story by interviewing some of them -- assuming

our editors approve.   Perhaps we could also do an expose on why the credit card

companies insist on charging their customers for paying by check-by-phone when

virtually no other companies do (I think their motive is pure greed).

Please let me know what you think.

                                                                Mark D. Trachtenberg

                                                                1564 Commonwealth Avenue, #7

                                                                Brighton (Boston), MA 02135

                                                                (617) 739-3342

                                                                tracmark@hotmail.com

Hey Matt, how's that stock doing now, buddy? About $17 a share? Hope you enjoyed the bath.

Send a Comment

Comments must be directly related to the blog entry. Comments with offensive language will be deleted. Your e-mail address won't be displayed.

(please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):